Greetings, The United States: The stock market, which ended up taking Friday’s strong jobs report in stride, turned sharply lower on Monday in response to the ISM Services data that conveyed service sector resilience. Despite the strong ISM Services report, tumbling residential investment (among other factors) will become a drag on the index. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Labor force participation declined again, including prime-age workers, which could contribute to faster wage growth. This is not the trend the Fed wants to see. Given the recent improvement in US financial conditions, we could see the Fed’s terminal rate move higher. The Eurozone: Despite signs of inflation peaking, the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Consumer spending remains robust despite elevated prices. Credit: Credit card debt has risen sharply this year, which has generated a lot of hype in the media. But, it remains well below pre-COVID levels as a share of disposable income. China: The Hong Kong dollar continues to climb as foreign capital …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: Stocks surged in response to Chair Powell’s dovish comments. Rates: So far, the current Fed rate hike cycle is the fifth largest in magnitude and the fifth shortest in duration. Alpine Macro expects markets to front-run a Fed pivot, triggering a reversal in yields. Is this the end of “monetary overkill?” …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: These charts show CPI components by inflation rate for the US and the Eurozone. Is there more disinflation ahead for the US? Europe: European assets bounced relative to the US, partly because of the weaker dollar. Global Developments: Fund managers increasingly view the US dollar …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Existing home sales were down almost 30% last month on a year-over-year basis. More homeowners will be renting rather than selling their houses as homebuyer demand crashes. Emerging Markets: It’s been a lost decade for Brazil. Cryptocurrencies: Crypto remains under pressure. Coinbase’s debt price …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 21st, 2022”
