The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Tech firms are pulling back on capital expenditures. In particular, the build-out of data centers appears to be taking a pause (perhaps due to softer demand for cloud services). Monday’s disappointing earnings from NVIDIA provided further evidence for this trend (see story). Slowing business investment could become a drag on …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The US Sales Manager Index (SMI) from World Economics shows that business activity is holding up in January. However, business confidence softened, and the pace of hiring (“staffing levels”) slowed substantially.   China: Softer disposable income growth does not bode well for retail sales.   The Eurozone: This chart shows the …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Business investment is expected to cool.   China: China’s money supply expansion has been lagging loan growth (liquidity is not making its way into the broader economy). This scatterplot shows corporate profitability vs. the velocity of money.   The Eurozone: According to Goldman Sachs, government debt spreads will widen in the …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 16th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States:  Today’s retail sales data for December will not be available because of the government shutdown, but based on the Redbook same-store index, holiday sales were relatively healthy.   China: As domestic demand for gasoline slows, China will export more of it.   The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the Eurozone’s …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 14th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business activity indices have moderated recently.   China: China’s portfolio flows are back in positive territory.   The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s actual and potential GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded over the years.   Equities: Equity long/short hedge funds started the year on a positive note.   Emerging Markets: …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Here is Nomura’s forecast for the December CPI report (month-over-month).   China: Is China facing deflationary risks as demand slows? The Eurozone: Household savings rate:   Credit: Here is the 2018 US corporate debt performance chart.   Emerging Markets: Non-residents’ share of local EM government debt has been drifting lower since …