Greetings, The United States: Several analysts are predicting that the US and China will come to a resolution on trade this spring. This chart shows a US-China trade policy risk indicator (with a forecast). China: China’s banks trade below book value. The Eurozone: Japanese investors have been buying quite a bit of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Tech firms are pulling back on capital expenditures. In particular, the build-out of data centers appears to be taking a pause (perhaps due to softer demand for cloud services). Monday’s disappointing earnings from NVIDIA provided further evidence for this trend (see story). Slowing business investment could become a drag on …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: What is the long-run potential US GDP growth? Goldman sees it at 1.75%. China: Commercial bank asset growth has slowed in recent years. The Eurozone: Turkey’s currency collapse had contributed to the weakness in the Eurozone’s exports last year. Equities: Risk parity funds remain underexposed to the stock …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Some analysts are already forecasting a sharp decline in the GDP growth this quarter. China: Economic growth is expected to slow further before it stabilizes. The Eurozone: Germany’s corporate earnings per share (EPS) estimates are now lagging the rest of the Eurozone. Equities: Here are a couple of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The US Sales Manager Index (SMI) from World Economics shows that business activity is holding up in January. However, business confidence softened, and the pace of hiring (“staffing levels”) slowed substantially. China: Softer disposable income growth does not bode well for retail sales. The Eurozone: This chart shows the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Are sentiment indicators (driven in part by the government shutdown) signaling a sharp deceleration in consumer spending? China: Exports are expected to slow in the months ahead. The Eurozone: China’s slowdown has been one of the key drivers of economic weakness in the Eurozone. Equities: Here is what …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 23rd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Business investment is expected to cool. China: China’s money supply expansion has been lagging loan growth (liquidity is not making its way into the broader economy). This scatterplot shows corporate profitability vs. the velocity of money. The Eurozone: According to Goldman Sachs, government debt spreads will widen in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Today’s retail sales data for December will not be available because of the government shutdown, but based on the Redbook same-store index, holiday sales were relatively healthy. China: As domestic demand for gasoline slows, China will export more of it. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the Eurozone’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 16th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Housing investment forecast from Oxford Economics: China: Tightening liquidity (the M1 money supply) suggests that imports could slow further. The Eurozone: Here are the Eurozone’s debt dynamics since 2000. Equities: The slowdown in earnings growth doesn’t look as sharp when the impact of tax cuts is stripped …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 15th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s business activity indices have moderated recently. China: China’s portfolio flows are back in positive territory. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s actual and potential GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded over the years. Equities: Equity long/short hedge funds started the year on a positive note. Emerging Markets: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 14th, 2019”
