Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the GDP report which was a touch weaker than expected. Nonetheless, the second quarter expansion was more than double what we saw in the first quarter and represents a 2.1% increase from last year. Consumption drove much of the growth. Also, net exports were additive to the …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the divergence between the labor market strength and wages in the US. It’s worth noting that a similar disconnect exists in Europe. China: The renminbi continues to strengthen against the dollar. Global Developments: Here are the top ten global companies by 2017 profit estimates. Equity Markets: Are …
Greetings, The United States: Consumer loan charge-offs have been on the rise recently despite a strong labor market. China: This chart shows the growth of shadow banking assets in China. There are indications that the PBoC’s tightening has moderated this expansion in recent months. Here is the composition of China’s shadow banking. Rates: Here …
Greetings, The United States: According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence in the US remains elevated, beating economists’ expectations. The “present situation” component of the Conference Board’s report has been exceptionally strong. Will we see this trend translate into higher consumer spending? Global Developments: Is the recent growth in world trade about to slow? …
Greetings, The United States: It takes more steps to start a business in the US than in many European countries. However, it takes less time than in some other nations. The United Kingdom: Despite the lowest unemployment rate in decades, British households are becoming more stressed financially. Declining real wages are the likely culprit. …
Greetings, The United States: Below is the breakdown of the core CPI between goods and services. A weak US dollar is likely to ease the persistent goods deflation. Global Developments: Below is a comparison of leading indicators for the largest economies. Credit: This map shows the Moody’s general obligation (municipal debt) rating for each …
Greetings, The United States: Wages are rising faster at smaller US firms. Rates: The market-implied probability of a third Fed rate hike this year dipped below 40%. Credit: The Moody’s stressed/distressed corporate credit universe has been gradually shrinking. Equity Markets: Valuation models show diminishing equity risk premium (vs. bonds). Fed officials have expressed …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the full breakdown of US core inflation. Rates: Many fund managers view the start of the Fed’s balance sheet unwind (quantitative tightening) as a non-event. Commodities: Sugar futures have bounced off the lows. Equity Markets: Based on seasonal patterns, this is the time of the summer when …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, slower retail sales are forcing US businesses to cut back on consumer goods orders. – Here is the US Sales Manager Index (SMI) summary from World Economics. Gains in business confidence have slowed. Business activity and staffing levels continue to show improvement. The United Kingdom: Economists are …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, US business optimism continues to improve. – Nonetheless, more economists now see downside risks to US growth. Bitcoin:The major cryptocurrencies seem to have stabilized for now. Here is Bitcoin. Equity Markets: US companies with higher exposure to China have outperformed. The market continues to ignore the risk …
