Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Only four FOMC members expect a rate hike (liftoff) next year. However, the market continues to assign close to an 80% probability of liftoff in 2022. It’s important to note that the Fed …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 30th, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Here is a summary of price indices for all the regional manufacturing reports. The spread between indices of prices paid and prices charged keeps widening. Without further boosting output prices, some manufacturers could …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 29th, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: The updated U. Michigan consumer sentiment index improved further in the second half of the month. Eurozone: Investors have soured on the euro. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin funds continue to see outflows. Technicals suggest …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 26th, 2021
Greetings, Canada: Just like in the US, residential investment surged last year. Eurozone: Households are sitting on massive savings. This chart shows the contributions to investment since 2005. China: State-owned firms have cut back their borrowing. Onshore corporate bond defaults surged this year. Cryptocurrency: The largest Bitcoin fund is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 25th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Short-term market-based inflation expectations are pricing in 2.1-2.3% core PCE inflation one and two years ahead. Adjusted for COVID-related changes in spending patterns, the CPI is substantially higher. United Kingdom: Oxford Economics expects the pound to strengthen over the next few years. China: Stocks continue to underperform. Renewed talk of …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 24th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Unlike other survey-based indicators, the World Economics SMI points to lackluster growth in US business activity. United Kingdom: This chart shows the composition of UK consumer spending. Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s government is taking measures to cool the housing market. As a result, the RBNZ is expected to be …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 23rd, 2021
Greetings, United States: Existing home sales declined last month due to the deep freeze in parts of the country as well as collapsing housing inventories. The housing market weakness in February is expected to be temporary. Here is a comment from Moody’s Analytics. It took severe winter storms across many parts of the …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2021
Greetings, United States: Mortgage rates are grinding higher, … … boosted by rising MBS yields. Eurozone: Here is the composition of the ECB’s balance sheet growth, … … which is pushing excess reserves to new records. Asia-Pacific: Japanese bank shares have outperformed sharply in recent weeks. Energy: Higher oil prices would …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: Stimulus checks are on their way. As the US Treasury withdraws cash from its account at the Fed, it moves liquidity into the private sector. As a result, short-term rates have drifted into negative territory. Overnight GC repo rate (5-day moving average): Treasury bill yields (the 3-month bill is now negative): …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The Fed held the line on its dovish stance, showing no signs of potential policy adjustments in the near-term. A few more FOMC members boosted their rate projections for 2022 and 2023, … … but the bulk of the Committee expects rates to stay near zero. Here is the dot plot. …
