The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: First off, a quick update on the state of the housing market. New home sales surprised to the upside.   Eurozone: German retail sales are facing some headwinds as sentiment softens.   China: Small business loan growth tumbled as Beijing clamped down on shadow financing. It was an unintended consequence …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States:  Here is the gap between consumer expectations and current conditions. Extreme lows in this measure tend to indicate that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. Eurozone: Finally, this chart shows the average annual employment and GDP growth by period. The current expansion is more “employment-rich” than …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 24th, 2019

Greetings,   Eurozone: The next shoe to drop could be Germany’s labor market. United Kingdom: Credit quality continues to deteriorate for UK industrials. The United States: Credit standards have been tightening. However, small businesses appear to have no trouble accessing credit. China: Rather than boosting spending in response to Beijing’s tax cuts, households have engaged …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 23rd, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Trade policy uncertainty is creating headwinds for businesses, including those in non-manufacturing sectors.   Eurozone: Germany’s producer price inflation is approaching zero.   Asia – Pacific: The weakness in Asia’s exports persists, which doesn’t bode well for global growth. South Korea saw its biggest decline in a decade.   China: …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US commercial contractors reported increasing backlogs, which is a positive sign for construction activity.   Eurozone: The new round of TLTRO financing didn’t get many takers. But there is still plenty of time for banks to tap this cheap source of funding.   China: Companies continue to complain about regulatory uncertainty when …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: For now, the percentage of industrial sectors that are in contraction remains below recessionary levels.   Eurozone: Germany’s manufacturing slump has been an outlier.   China: The yuan’s share of the global currency market remains modest.   Global Developments: This chart shows the time lag between recession indicators and recessions. …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Working capital at US farms has been shrinking in recent years.   Eurozone: This map illustrates the ECB governors’ opposition to QE.   China: Airfreight activity points to persistent weakness in manufacturing.   Global Developments: Foreign direct investment has stalled in recent years. Food for Thought: Values considered important (by …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US consumers are becoming concerned about the availability of credit.   Eurozone: Is the French manufacturing sector outperformance over?   China: Goldman’s employment growth tracker showed modest improvement recently.   Global Developments: The probability of a quarter with negative GDP growth is much higher these days than a couple of …