Greetings, The United States: Working capital at US farms has been shrinking in recent years. Eurozone: This map illustrates the ECB governors’ opposition to QE. China: Airfreight activity points to persistent weakness in manufacturing. Global Developments: Foreign direct investment has stalled in recent years. Food for Thought: Values considered important (by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers are becoming concerned about the availability of credit. Eurozone: Is the French manufacturing sector outperformance over? China: Goldman’s employment growth tracker showed modest improvement recently. Global Developments: The probability of a quarter with negative GDP growth is much higher these days than a couple of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The gap between weekly working hours in cyclical and non-cyclical industries has widened since the trade war escalation. Eurozone: Can the EU budget rules be amended to allow for more aggressive fiscal easing? According to Goldman Sachs, there is room for a more pragmatic interpretation of the existing regulations that …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Higher prices on durable goods (driven in part by tariffs) are weighing on buying conditions. Eurozone: The ECB has been successful in lowering corporate borrowing costs. China: Producer prices on consumer durables are declining, which is putting pressure on corporate profits. Global Developments: Newsflow indicators look recessionary. Has the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the cumulative cost of tariffs for US importers. Eurozone: Finland’s GDP growth continues to decelerate. Nordea is forecasting growth of 1% in 2020 and 0.5% for 2021. China: Is there more downside for the yuan (upside for the US dollar) as US tariffs ramp up? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The trends in prime-age vs. total labor force participation continue to diverge. Eurozone: Economists expect the ECB to lower its inflation forecasts. Here is an estimate from Pictet Wealth Management. China: China eased its monetary policy by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and freeing up additional bank …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Here we have the index of container shipping costs from China to LA ports. Here is a comment from Patrik Berglund (CEO of Xeneta). The chart shows the development of the short and long term market on Transpac Eastbound into LA ports. The spike between the two red boxes indicates …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 6th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Analysts are concerned about weak business investment. Here is Morgan Stanley’s CapEx plans index. Eurozone: Services should be accretive to the GDP growth over the next couple of quarters. China: Here are China’s total external liabilities. Food for Thought: International tourist arrivals: Edited by Joseph N …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows corporate profits as a percentage of the GDP. Eurozone: Doves dominate the ECB’s Governing Council and are expected to deliver a “bazooka” stimulus package this month. China: Goldman’s policy proxy index suggests that Beijing’s latest stimulus program has been more moderate than in 2015/16. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 2nd, 2019”
