Greetings, The United States: Intermodal railcar loadings point to persistent weakness in industrial production. The Eurozone: The market is increasingly pricing in lower policy rates from the ECB. Are investors too dovish? Equities: The US – Mexico manufacturing supply chains are highly integrated, with two-thirds of US imports taking place intra-company (between factories owned by …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 30th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Are economists too optimistic in their GDP projections for this year? The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s private-sector debt levels (as % of GDP) have been drifting lower over the past few years. Equities: How do different sectors perform when Treasury yields dip by at least five basis points? Emerging Markets: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 29th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Leading indicators continue to point to weaker economic growth this quarter. For example, this chart shows shippers’ near-term outlook for freight demand. The Eurozone: Will the ECB be forced to boost stimulus to combat lowflation? The central bank certainly has a number of options – from ‘operation twist’ to changing …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 29th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Americans without a college degree (a high-school diploma or less) have increased spending this year. The Eurozone: Hedge funds are betting against the euro. Equities: Will the weakness in manufacturing pressure stock prices? China: The next chart shows the breakdown of China’s exports by US tariff ‘tranche.’ Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Containerboard production is another indicator pointing to softer growth ahead. The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, the divergence between manufacturing and services persists. Equities: According to the IHS Markit PMI, corporate earnings will be under pressure going forward. China: China’s household debt (as % of income) has …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: These are the industries that will benefit from the de-escalation of North American trade tensions. The Eurozone: Here is an illustration of the EU’s institutions. Equities: The S&P 500 has been consolidating recently, suggesting higher volatility ahead. Australia: The Aussie dollar has diverged from the Australian-US rate differential. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The housing market can have a visible impact on the broader service sector. The Eurozone: The latest weakness in German factory orders is driven by soft demand from outside of the Eurozone. Equities: Will the US corporate sector avoid an earnings recession? China: Beijing has succeeded in slowing/reversing China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Fed has consistently been too pessimistic about the future trajectory of the unemployment rate. The Eurozone: Are the Eurozone’s inflation expectations sufficiently low for the ECB to consider additional easing actions? Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 performance decomposed into the overnight and intraday price action. Lately, …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: A survey from the NY Fed shows economists downgrading their forecasts for the core PCE inflation. The Eurozone: This chart shows the Eurozone’s consumption vs. the working-age population growth. Equities: US equity fund outflows persist. China: The nation’s savings rate stands out vs. economies with similar per-capita …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Some economists remain concerned about slowing business investment, especially as trade-related risks resurface. The Eurozone: Capital Economics sees the Italian government budget deteriorating sharply next year, boosting bond yields. Equities: Buybacks continue to prop up the stock market. China: Here is the structure of China’s economy. Global …
