Greetings, United States: Initial jobless claims rose again. Many Americans are about to lose their emergency unemployment benefits, widening the “K-shaped” recovery gap. Eurozone: The broad money supply (M3) growth continues to climb. Here are the year-over-year changes in business and consumer loans. The acceleration in M3 has been driven by the ECB, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: The stock market is pricing in higher inflation ahead. Here is the relative performance of stocks that benefit from increased inflation vs. those that underperform when prices climb. Rates: US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 25th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: Stock futures are higher as Biden’s formal transition begins. Investors also breathed a sigh of relief on Yellen’s nomination for the Treasury Secretary (as opposed to Elizabeth Warren, for example). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 24th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. United States: US daily new COVID cases are approaching 200k. Below is the share of US states (GDP-weighted) where daily infections are rising. China: The renminbi has not moved into the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The US Treasury is pulling the plug on some of the emergency programs it put in place with the Fed (red arrows below). China: Investors have been selling high-rated state-owned-enterprise (SOE) bonds in provinces where local governments have poor reputations, according to Gavekal. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ownership is becoming more …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Many households are concerned about not being able to pay the next month’s rent. United Kingdom: Regret? China: Chinese IPOs in the US exceeded $11 billion this year. Energy: US gasoline inventories are back above the 5-year average. And gasoline demand remains relatively soft. Equities: November 9th …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: October retail sales were softer than expected amid signs of consumer activity losing momentum. Nonetheless, the overall rebound has been remarkable. Asia-Pacific: The world’s busiest domestic flight routes are in Asia. Emerging Markets: Until the pandemic, the short-end of EM yield curves has been uncorrelated with manufacturing PMIs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: Moderna’s vaccine news sent the Dow to a new record as we approach 30k. Alternatives: US public pensions are among the world’s biggest private-equity investors. Credit: The AAA spread curve for US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) shows strong demand for long duration. News of the COVID-19 vaccine led to a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment index surprised to the downside this month. As we’ve seen earlier, presidential elections tend to have a substantial impact on US sentiment indicators. Republicans are more upbeat about the current situation (1st panel), while Democrats are more optimistic about the future (2nd panel). However, the expectations …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The October CPI report showed a slowdown in price increases, with both the headline and the core inflation figures coming in below consensus. Zillow data point to more downside for rent inflation. United Kingdom: The rebound in factory production is slowing. China: Rates are rising across the board. Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2020”
