Greetings, The United States: Finally, the chart below shows how different the run-up in federal debt was in the 1980s vs. over the past decade. China: Will stronger fixed asset investment offset some of the weakness in manufacturing exports? The Eurozone: Here are the updated German political poll results. Equities: Growth …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the government’s contribution to the GDP growth (federal, state and local). Global Developments: Here is TD’s global macro risks index. China: The Q4 GDP growth is shaping up to be disappointing (as tariffs hit). The Eurozone: Here are the components of the French Q3 GDP …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The recent tightening in financial conditions has been unusually sharp. Global Developments: Tighter financial conditions should further slow growth in advanced economies. China: Domestic private firms increasingly dominate China’s exports. The Eurozone: Nonperforming loan percentages have declined across the board. But is it over for this downward trend? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Do rising wages boost inflation? The link is now much weaker than in the past. Global Developments: When markets’ long-term expectations of rates meet the Fed’s long-term policy rate projections, stock market volatility ensues. China: Inflows into China’s domestic bond markets have slowed sharply. The Eurozone: Here are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with this chart of the 3M Corporation’s share price vs. the ISM manufacturing activity index. What is the market telling us? Global Developments: Germany’s Rhine river water levels are at extreme lows, making it increasingly challenging to transport fuel into parts of Europe. China: Fund flows into …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: According to the NFIB’s small business survey, the US labor force participation rate should improve going forward. Global Developments: How have the stock markets around the world reacted to negative and positive trade war news? China: These are the sources of revenue for China’s government. The Eurozone: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the progression of tariffs on Chinese imports (increasingly impacting consumer products). Rates: Here is an updated chart on Treasury holdings. China: Deutsche Bank expects China’s current account balance to flip into deficit next year. The Eurozone: When is the ECB’s “liftoff”? Equities: While bank shares tend to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here, we have a few additional updates on the housing market. • This chart shows mortgage originations by loan type. • The housing sector’s contribution to the GDP remains below the pre-crisis highs (the housing recession began in 2006). • And here is the housing affordability index by region. Rates: With cross-currency swap …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 17th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Google search frequency for home financing continues to drift lower. Rates: Here is an updated FOMC dove-hawk spectrum. China: China’s domestic liquidity has contracted. Will we see interbank rates spike as we approach the year-end? The Eurozone: Based on the current spread levels, Italian debt should be …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 16th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The probability of a recession over the next six months remains modest. Rates: This chart shows who is long and short the two-year Treasury futures. China: The rate differential between China and the US has been closing, which has been putting downward pressure on the yuan. The Eurozone: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 15th, 2018”
