The Daily Shot Brief – October 15th, 2018



The United States: The probability of a recession over the next six months remains modest.

Source: Oxford Economics


Rates: This chart shows who is long and short the two-year Treasury futures.

Source: @ljzaz


China: The rate differential between China and the US has been closing, which has been putting downward pressure on the yuan.

Source: Gavekal


The Eurozone: Market-based inflation expectations are drifting lower.

Source: The Daily Shot


Equities: Based on some indicators, US valuations look interesting again (P/E = price-to-earnings ratio; NTM = next twelve months).

Source: UBS, @bySamRo


Global Developments: Analysts expect further spikes in market volatility as the major central banks’ total balance sheet begins contracting.

Source: The Daily Feather


Emerging Markets: Dollar-denominated EM bonds (orange) held up better than US high-yield debt (white) in the recent selloff.

Source: @lisaabramowicz1


Food for Thought: Death rates among younger Americans:

Source: CDC



Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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