Greetings, The United States: Here is a chart comparing consumer confidence (expectations) and real consumer spending. Credit: Are the loose structural characteristics of the leveraged loan market here to stay? The United Kingdom: Here is a dashboard of what happened to the economy since the vote and more recently. Emerging Markets: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 29th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This table provides a comparison of the latest GOP tax proposal with the earlier versions. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model still predicts just over 2% (annualized) GDP growth for the third quarter. Credit: Cat bond issuance approaches record levels. Global Developments: No major economy is expected to be in contraction next …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 28th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This chart is a bit dated, but it breaks down the reasons why some prime-age men are not working. As discussed previously (#3 here), male participation rates are not improving much. Credit: This chart shows corporate leverage levels (debt/EBITDA) by industry and rating. Rates: Goldman’s forecast for the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Growth in real hourly wages has been uneven. Credit: Leveraged loan issuance in the US is on track to hit a record this year. China: Local and regional governments continue to raise money through land sales. And times are good to sell land, especially if it can be …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma trimmed US economic activity in September, slowing manufacturing output. However, the nation’s economy remains resilient. Here is a comment from IHS Markit. Credit: The Toys R Us filing has catapulted this year’s DIP financing to the highest level since 2009. China: Goldman expects to see inflows in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: “hard data” has been disappointing lately. This weakness, according to many economists, was to a large extent driven by Hurricane Harvey. Will the dollar continue to weaken, boosting US export competitiveness? Historical trends tell us that it’s a real possibility. And hedge funds are betting on it (second chart below). The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 22th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, the Federal Reserve will begin the long-awaited balance sheet unwind next month. But to the surprise of some economists, the central bank also appears to be on target to raise rates in December. The futures-based probability of a December rate hike jumped in response to the FOMC announcement. Below is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 21th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, US import prices have increased. Credit: Here is how Toys R Us compares with other retail bankruptcy filings. Equity Markets: This chart puts some market capitalization figures into perspective. Emerging Markets: The increasing percentage of tech stocks in emerging markets has been fueling the recent rally. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, US import prices have increased. Credit: Here is how Toys R Us compares with other retail bankruptcy filings. Equity Markets: This chart puts some market capitalization figures into perspective. Emerging Markets: The increasing percentage of tech stocks in emerging markets has been fueling the recent rally. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Hurricane Harvey’s impact on US growth is showing up in the economic data. There is some debate, however, whether Harvey explains all of the weak data reported on Friday. Here is the monthly change in industrial production. The direct damage is now in the range of $60 – $100bn but …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2017”
