Greetings, United States: This month’s regional Fed manufacturing reports point to a peak in supply-chain bottlenecks. To be sure, the problem will plague US businesses for months to come, but this could be the beginning of the end. United Kingdom: These charts illustrate the shift from self-employed and part-time work to full-time. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 29th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Perceived labor market slack is part of the reason for the Fed’s reluctance to begin withdrawing stimulus. Eurozone: Analysts expect QE to remain robust next quarter. China: Retailers have been struggling in the second quarter, according to China Beige Book. Commodities: Global food producers are struggling with rising …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 28th, 2021
Greetings, United States: This chart shows the drivers of personal income changes since February 2020. China: Barclays sees limited pass-through from surging PPI into CPI. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin had another volatile weekend, once again testing support at $30k. The regulatory news from the UK didn’t help. Commodities: The US Supreme Court dealt …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Consumer confidence continues to improve. Americans are now almost as comfortable with personal finances as they were before the pandemic. United Kingdom: The BoE struck a somewhat dovish tone this week. The central bank’s inflation forecast assumes a “transient” bump. China: Tourists/gamblers are not rushing back to Macau. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 24th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The Markit Manufacturing PMI hit a new record, pointing to exceptionally strong growth in US factory activity. Neither supply chain bottlenecks nor price pressures show signs of abating. Emerging Markets: Some data on LatAm international debt issuance. Energy: Conventional oil and gas shares are recovering as renewable energy …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 23rd, 2021
Greetings, United Kingdom: Industrial orders are surging, … … and so are prices. Japan: Industrial production has been outperforming the US and Eurozone. However, despite economic improvements, BlackRock expects the Bank of Japan to remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future. Cryptocurrency: Crypto miners have contributed to graphics chip (GPU) shortages, as …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 22nd, 2021
Greetings, United States: Home flipping hasn’t been popular since the start of the pandemic. United Kingdom: Here are the market-based BoE rate trajectory expectations. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s and the Eurozone’s producer prices are highly correlated. Several other manufacturing hubs also follow a similar pattern. Energy: We have US renewables consumption by …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2021
Greetings, Rates: Yield curves continue to flatten globally since the Fed’s hawkish surprise last week. • The US: Equities: Retail investors re-engaged in equities around mid-May when crypto markets came under pressure. Commodities: Dry bulk shipping costs remain near multi-year highs. Cryptocurrency: Beijing continues to pressure the nation’s bitcoin miners, who boosted …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: Investors’ response to the Fed’s hawkish dot-plot was to unwind some of the reflation trades, which have become crowded recently. In the equity markets, inflation-sensitive shares took a hit (2 charts). Credit: The correlation between CCC and BBB-rated US corporate bond spreads has dropped in recent months, which typically precedes periods …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Faced with an economy that’s expanding faster than projected and a rapidly tightening labor force, many FOMC members pulled forward their forecasts for rate hikes. The dot plot now shows two rate hikes in 2023, with a few more Committee members forecasting hikes next year. Asia-Pacific: Open interest and foreign …
