The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The Q3 GDP update was unchanged at 3.5%. Here are the latest adjustments of the GDP components.   China: These charts show the components of China’s consumer credit and debt-service burden.   The Eurozone: Italian banks have a relatively small liquidity position, making them more vulnerable.   Global Developments: The …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: This chart shows Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast for the next couple of years (including the GDP components).   China: China’s official export figures have diverged from those reported by its trading partners   The Eurozone: Exports have been weakening at the Eurozone level as well (and diverging from the global trend).   …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 26th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The divergence between “soft” and “hard” consumption indicators persists.   China: Housing inventories are expected to climb next year.   The Eurozone: Low oil prices sent market-based inflation expectations sharply lower.   Global Developments: What does growth in the world’s monetary base tell us about the timing of the next recession?   Equities: …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Residential investment has been weakening in recent quarters. At the same time, the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey from the Fed shows falling demand for residential mortgages. It’s worth noting that in the past, declines in residential investment led the way into recessions.   China: China increasingly imports goods for …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: US transport/logistics prices continue to climb.   China: Bank lending rates have been unusually high relative to money market rates.   The Eurozone: Part of the reason for the euro area’s equity underperformance is the weakness in the “administered” (state-controlled) sectors. Slower GDP growth has also been a factor.   Equities: Does …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: How will the latest tariff increases impact consumer inflation?   China: The latest increase in China’s exports was driven by US firms “frontloading” orders ahead of tariffs.   The Eurozone: Italy benefitted tremendously from the ECB’s TLTRO program (chart below) as lending rates contracted (second chart below).   Equities:  Market timers have …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Will improved pricing power in the corporate sector result in an upside inflation surprise?   China: The percentage of Chinese bonds held by foreigners keeps climbing.   Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q4 GDP tracker for the Eurozone.   Equities: Valuations remain reasonable since the October selloff. However, analysts are concerned …