The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2018



The United States: The number of Americans not working due to illness has declined in recent years (higher wages pull more people into the labor force).

Source: @JedKolko


China: Credit expansion continues.

Source: Scotiabank Economics

The weakness has been in non-bank credit.

Source: Nomura, @zerohedge


The Eurozone: When is the ECB’s “liftoff”?

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Rates: Will the massive global debt load slow the Fed’s rate hike trajectory?

Source: ANZ Research


EquitiesWhile bank shares tend to trade with the slope of the yield curve, there doesn’t seem to be a direct relationship between the 10yr-2yr Treasury spread and net interest margins.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Emerging Markets: This chart provides a detailed history of EM crises by region and type.

Source: Capital Economics



Food for Thought: Old-age dependency ratio:

Source: Gavekal

Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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