Greetings, The United States: The second-quarter GDP revision also surprised to the upside. The consumer carried the day again (in blue). Credit: This chart shows banks pulling out of corporate leveraged loans, as institutions (such as BDCs, CLOs, credit funds, hedge funds, etc.) pile into the market. Global Developments: This chart shows …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 30th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: The US airline industry has been doing well recently. However, the Hurricane Harvey disaster has pushed jet fuel prices sharply higher amid shut refinery operations. Some suggest that airline ticket prices will soon rise as a result. Turning to the corporate sector, this chart shows the time series analysis of …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 29th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: How did the various economic metrics respond to natural disasters in the past? Credit: Small corporate loans (under $100mm) have been experiencing lower default rates. This is partially due to smaller firms having limited access to leverage. Equity Markets: We are in for a volatile Tuesday as North …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 28th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index hit another multi-year high (the highest since 2001). Will this trend translate into higher spending? For now, big-ticket items such as houses and autos don’t seem to reflect this consumer exuberance. For example, inventories of crossover SUVs are piling up at dealers despite a significant …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 24th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: US commercial property rent increases seem to have peaked. Foreign capital inflows into US commercial real estate have peaked as well. Here is the breakdown by origin. Credit: Leveraged loan issuance hits the highest monthly volume in two years. Equity Markets: Fund outflows from US equities accelerated while …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 23rd, 2017
Greetings, The United States: The FOMC officials have become less concerned about upside risks to inflation and growth as the fiscal stimulus legislation gets delayed. Credit: Most Federal Home Loan Banks have seen capitalization improvements over the past year. Equity Markets: Inflows into the largest international equity ETFs have slowed. It’s increasingly difficult …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 22nd, 2017
Greetings, The United States: The dollar is drifting lower again, which should help with exports and may further ease financial conditions. This trend is also one of the reasons some analysts suggest that we will see another rate increase in December (markets are pricing in one-in-three odds of a December hike). But has shorting …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 21st, 2017
Greetings, The United States: As discussed previously, the recent dollar weakness will result in higher import prices. In particular, prices of industrial supplies and materials are expected to rise. On the other hand, the dollar’s weakness should help boost US exports. Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s global trading volume has been climbing rapidly. It’s now comparable …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 18th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: Here is the July labor participation rate among young Americans. Fewer teens seem to be working during the summer. Credit: HY corporate bonds are starting to see some hefty outflows. Equity Markets: Cash holdings of US non-financial firms continue to climb. Energy Markets: The decline in US …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 17th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: The markets saw the concerns about this persistently low inflation by some FOMC members as a dovish sign. Treasury yields and the dollar slumped. Credit: More investors see corporate debt as overvalued. Equity Markets: High-frequency trading revenues continue to shrink as market volatility collapses. Emerging Markets: South …