Greetings, The United States: Will incomes rise sufficiently to justify the brisk consumer spending? Will it happen before higher interest rates make consumer debt much more expensive? Separately, consumer spending on pleasure boats, aircraft, and other recreational vehicles is rising at the fastest pace since 2005. Is it the wealth effect? The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 31st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the GDP forecast for the next couple of years from Morgan Stanley (that Q4 projection didn’t work out well). Economists expect consumption growth to slow as a result of the lowest savings rate in a decade. The Eurozone: The euro area broad unemployment rate (U6, which …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the strength in consumer spending persist going forward? While economists expect consumption to remain strong this year (helped in part by the new tax bill), it’s hard to see the US consumer staying this enthusiastic for too long. That’s because the savings rate as a percentage of disposable …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to predict an acceleration in US wages. The Eurozone: German business climate keeps improving. However, there is a widening gap between the current conditions and business expectations. The second set of charts below shows the sector breakdown. Equity Markets: Analysts continue to raise concerns about …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The January Markit PMI report on US business activity shows some divergence between manufacturing and services. The Eurozone: There are signs of higher inflation down the road. • The price component of the PMI report: • The PMI “delivery times” index: Equity Markets: Pension funds keep reallocating out of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Companies increasingly consider the US to be the top market for growth prospects. Bitcoin: Will more crypto exchanges be hacked this year? Equity Markets: It has been a phenomenal start of the year for stocks globally. Credit: The volume of unitranche loans hit a new high last quarter. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: How is the fiscal stimulus expected to impact the GDP growth over the next three years? Energy Markets: The currencies of energy producing countries have caught up with oil prices. Bitcoin: Leveraged accounts (such as hedge funds) are net long Bitcoin futures. Equity Markets: More managers …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 23rd, 2018”
Greetings, Let’s begin by taking a quick look at one of the topics that are likely to get a great deal of attention at the 46th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (this week). The United States: The ECRI index of leading indicators points to more economic strength ahead …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 22nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent US dollar weakness accelerate the import price growth? If so, we should see the effect in the CPI later this year. Japan: Has Abenomics been effective? Energy Markets: Refinery inputs remain elevated for this time of the year. Bitcoin: Here is an estimate of market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 19th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The US economy is currently thought to be expanding at full capacity, with the gap between the actual and potential GDP now closed. The US government’s projections of a 3-4% GDP growth over the next decade, therefore, appears to be completely unrealistic. Global Developments: This chart shows the relative …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 18th, 2018”
