The United States: Here is the GDP forecast for the next couple of years from Morgan Stanley (that Q4 projection didn’t work out well). Economists expect consumption growth to slow as a result of the lowest savings rate in a decade.
The Eurozone: The euro area broad unemployment rate (U6, which includes underemployment) continues to decline.
Equity Markets: There is some debate about the bond yield inflection point when valuations respond negatively to higher yields. Credit Suisse says it’s 3.5% on the 10yr Treasury. Some think the inflection yield is much lower.
Credit: Investors are starting to become cautious on investment-grade (IG) corporate debt. Here is the short interest in LQD, the largest IG bond ETF.
China: Growth in property prices is slowing. Tier-3 properties are expected to be the most resilient.
Energy Markets: The combined money manager positions across petroleum products show extreme bullishness in the sector.
Cryptocurrencies: Investors are starting to short some of the companies that rallied in response to the recent “crypto hype.”
Food for Thought: Greenhouse gas emissions by source.
Edited by Joseph N Cohen
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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.
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