Greetings, United States: The CPI peak projections keep getting pushed out by economists The labor market remains tight, with the job openings report topping expectations. Equities: Small caps have been resilient in the recent selloff, with microcaps outperforming over the past week. Eurozone: European natural gas futures tumbled but remain well …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Below is a new index of consumer inflation expectations from ICE. Imports from China are still elevated. Energy: Making plastics is becoming unprofitable in Asia. Demand destruction? Will Russia turn off the spigot? Equities: Risk appetite has deteriorated, but is sentiment about to stabilize? Eurozone: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The yield curve keeps flattening as the market prices in slower growth ahead. This comes as President Biden announces a ban on US imports of Russian oil. Commodities: Nickel exploded to the upside as market participants got caught in a short squeeze (hedges have blown up amid massive margin calls). …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2022
Greetings, Energy: Discussions of a Russian oil embargo and a setback in the Iran deal sent crude oil to multi-year highs. At this point, however, it’s not clear if Europe will agree to halt Russian oil purchases. European natural gas is up 45% today on Russian supply concerns. Commodities: COMEX copper futures hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 4th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Forget 50 bps. The market is no longer sure about a 25 bps rate hike this month. Concerns about the consequences of Russia’s invasion keep markets on edge. Russia’s attack on the nuclear power plant sent Treasury yields sharply lower. Eurozone: Market-based inflation expectations are soaring. Emerging Markets: Ukrainian …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 3rd, 2022
tGreetings, Commodities: Commodity inventories have been drawing down to near-record lows over the past year. Copper and aluminum inventories remain extremely low (2 charts). Energy: Brent crude is nearing $117/bbl, the highest level in a decade. Equities: Small caps are widening their outperformance. Rates: Treasury market liquidity has deteriorated. United …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 2nd, 2022
Greetings, United States: Crude oil is now up about 45% year-to-date, with Brent blasting past $110/bbl. There are growing concerns that the massive price surge will become a substantial drag on the US and global economy this year. China: Developers have been struggling to raise capital from traditional sources. And funding …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2022
Greetings, United States: The Chicago PMI showed a downshift in the region’s business activity in February Moreover, the spread between the indices of new orders and inventory dipped below zero, pointing to slower growth ahead. Supply-chain strains remain elevated. Europe: European rigid wage system is yet to budge despite labor shortages. …