Greetings, The United States: Corporate confidence continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The sharp drop-off in demand from the UK is a headwind for the Eurozone’s economy. China: Spreads have widened for lower-rated bank certificates of deposit. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s trade balance surprised to the upside, with the non-oil component rising sharply …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s economic data momentum has been recovering this year. Commodities: Here is what’s driving steel demand in China. The second chart below shows the steel rebar futures in Shanghai. Global Developments: Below is the G10 …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s real forward rates (5-year rate, 5-year forward) are now at the lowest level since 2015. Equities: Here are some comments on high-beta stocks from Artisan Partners. Rates: The Fed is expected to buy a …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The June regional indices as well as the IHS Markit PMI (see chart) point to a further weakening in the ISM Manufacturing PMI (at the national level). Here is Goldman’s manufacturing activity tracker. The Eurozone: Greek sovereign credit default spreads are tightening to fresh multi-year lows. Equities: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 24th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: First-time home purchases (as a percentage of the population) remain well below peak levels. The Eurozone: Services continue to support private-sector growth in the Eurozone. Equities: The 2020 earnings growth expectations remain above 10% even as the 2019 forecasts keep falling. Global Developments: Will easier financial conditions …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: When the Fed preemptively cut rates in the 1990s (as it is expected to do this year), the manufacturing sector was in much worse shape than it is now. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer sentiment continues to soften. Equities: Equity fund outflows are near record levels. Credit: Leveraged loans …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the CPI trajectory for each business cycle since 1879. The Eurozone: According to Natixis, “banks have hardly sold assets (bonds) to the ECB, and therefore, most of the ECB’s [net] asset purchases have been from non-bank economic agents, which fuelled money creation.” Energy: Oil supply/demand balance will …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here, we have the case for and against rate cuts by the Fed (see chart below). – The case for: • Manufacturing recession • Tumbling inflation expectations • The inverted yield curve • A strong US dollar • Global economic uncertainty – The case against: • The stock market near records …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Americans are increasingly confident in their ability to find work if they lose a job today. The Eurozone: The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has been grinding higher. Equities: Tariffs remain a major topic on corporate earnings calls. Credit: This chart shows the issuance of asset-backed securities …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Unless Congress lifts the debt ceiling, analysts expect the US Treasury to run out of cash in October The Eurozone:The Greek sovereign credit default swap spread tightened to multi-year lows. The 2015 spike shows the moment when Greece was staring down the Grexit abyss. Equities: Here are four …
