Greetings, The United States: The Treasury market is pricing in low odds that the US-China trade tensions will be resolved at the G20 meeting. The Eurozone: Excluding inventory adjustments, the euro-area GDP growth has been quite strong. Equities: Will we see an earnings recession for the S&P 500? Global Developments: High-yield …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Falling residential investment has been a drag on the GDP growth. Will we see a reversal in this trend? The Eurozone: This chart shows the sharp divergence between private and public employment trends in France. Equities: Will the US CapEx slowdown spread to tech? Credit: High-yield bonds …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent weakness in manufacturing drag down service-sector activity? The Eurozone: Eurozone-based companies’ earnings growth is stalling out. Equities: BMO’s valuation index suggests that US stocks are fairly valued. Global Developments: Short-term rate differentials point to downside risks for the US dollar. Food for Thought: US …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The risk of a recession in the near-term, while still relatively low, has risen in recent months. • The NY Fed’s and the Cleveland Fed’s recession risk models: The Eurozone: Did the Eurozone’s GDP growth stall this quarter? Equities: US firms better show robust earnings in the coming quarters …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The probability of a rate cut next month blasted past 80% after the employment report. Is the market too dovish? Is the Fed truly prepared to cut rates in July? The Eurozone: Who owns Germany’s stocks? Equities: Companies with significant sales outside of the US are expected to …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: China, of course, remains the most significant component of the US trade gap with the world. The Eurozone: The ECB has been downgrading its inflation forecasts due to a weaker growth outlook. Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 valuation (forward P/E ratio) with and without FANG stocks. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The 2-year Treasury yield after the ADP release: The Eurozone: German April factory orders showed signs of stabilization. Equities: S&P 500 EPS growth estimates comparison to other markets Global Developments: Productivity data: Food for Thought: Betting markets’ odds on the balance of power in Congress after the …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Growth in factory jobs has been slowing. The Eurozone: Concerns about Italy’s sovereign credit persist. Equities: Will a rate cut be enough to keep the bull market going? Tighter liquidity will remain a headwind for stocks. Commodities: US corn crop progress is massively behind schedule. Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 4th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Are economists too optimistic about this year’s GDP growth rate? After all, rate cuts are now talk of the town. The Eurozone: Labor-market integration of recent immigrants has been slower than in the past. Equities: This chart illustrates the seasonal pattern of equity fund flows. Commodities: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 3rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The latest growth indicators don’t look promising. The Oxford Economics GDP forecast: The Eurozone: Property prices in the Eurozone have been climbing in recent years. Will the trend continue? Equities: Is credit telling us that stocks should be lower? This chart compares the S&P 500 with the ratio …
