Greetings, The United States: Credit Suisse expects two rate hikes in 2019. Cryptocurrency: Token offerings and ICO funds raised continue to decline. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s headline CPI is expected to slow sharply in the months to come (due to oil prices), while the core inflation should keep grinding higher (with wages). Credit: Who …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Household income increases have been relatively broad over the past few years. China: China’s stocks look cheap relative to global shares. The Eurozone: Is Germany facing a recession? Credit: Investors remain concerned about lower leveraged loan recoveries going forward. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s monetary policy is the tightest …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 18th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Inflation will moderate next year as the massive oil price adjustment makes its way through the economy. China: Slower credit expansion does not bode well for China’s economic activity next year. The Eurozone: The market’s expectations for the timing of the ECB’s liftoff are getting pushed further out. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The spread between job gains for workers vs. managers (especially in cyclical sectors) declined last month. If the trend continues, it would indicate that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. China: Are capital outflows picking up again? The Eurozone: Central banks are increasing their allocations …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The overall consumer debt (as % of disposable income) has declined in recent years even as the total household net worth rose. This divergence suggests that, on average, US household balance sheets remain relatively healthy. Of course, these trends have been highly uneven across income categories. China: China’s manufacturing wage …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US financial conditions have tightened, but we are nowhere close to the levels we saw in 2016. China: China’s stocks have been outperforming US markets over the past month. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the euro area GDP growth over the next couple of years. Credit: Leveraged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator has been moving lower since September. China: Some economists predict a further slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector (before stabilization). The Eurozone: Credit demand in the Eurozone has been slowing and is expected to become a drag on loan growth. Credit: Baa-rated corporate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan survey tells us that Americans who expect the highest long-term inflation have been scaling back their projections. China: US imports of Chinese goods that are subject to 25% tariffs are collapsing. That’s why a delay in the current 10% tariffs becoming 25% is a big deal. But …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2018”
