The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2018



The United States: Inflation will moderate next year as the massive oil price adjustment makes its way through the economy.

Source: FTN Financial


China: Slower credit expansion does not bode well for China’s economic activity next year.

Source: Capital Economics


The Eurozone: The market’s expectations for the timing of the ECB’s liftoff are getting pushed further out.

Source: Barclays Research


Credit: Below we have some stats on the US asset-backed commercial paper market (ABCP) which was at the epicenter of the financial crisis. In 2007, as mortgage defaults climbed, money market investors refused to roll these short-term debt obligations. Banks, who backstopped many of these ABCP programs, were forced to take the underlying securities (often tranches of securitized products) onto their balance sheets, boosting their direct exposure to sub-prime mortgage debt. The ABCP market is now dramatically different and much smaller.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Emerging Markets: The Philippine trade deficit will be a drag on the peso.

Source: ANZ Research


Global Developments: How many central banks are hiking rates vs. easing? The chart below includes a forecast for next year (CE = Capital Economics).

Source: Capital Economics


Food for Thought: Patent wars:

Source: Visual Capitalist; Read full article


Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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