Greetings, United States: As expected, the Fed cut rates for the third time this year. The FOMC also hinted at a pause going forward by getting rid of the wording “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” Here are the changes in the statement. So, the market-based probability of a fourth rate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The recent curve inversion has been shorter and shallower than the previous ones. This chart shows the spread between the 10yr Treasury and the fed funds rate. The United Kingdom: Households’ liquidity growth points to a rebound in consumption. China: Chinese local governments have quite a bit of debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: Small banks have been grappling with higher credit card delinquencies. The United Kingdom: As was widely expected, Parliament blocked the Prime Minister’s call for an early general election. Also, the UK leadership approval rate declined this year. The Eurozone: Loan growth has diverged from the GDP, which doesn’t …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: US consumers view the current environment as ideal for selling a house. The Eurozone: Economists keep downgrading their euro-area 2020 growth forecasts. China: The World Economics SMI indicators point to a rebound in business activity in October. Services: Manufacturing: Equities: Here is the put-call ratio for the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: Morgan Stanley’s US recession probability model has turned lower in recent weeks. Europe: With foreign capital flowing in, European markets have been remarkably forgiving of businesses that missed earnings expectations. Companies that missed saw (on average) an increase in their share price. And those firms that beat forecasts experienced massive rallies. These …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home price appreciation has slowed this year. Nonetheless, home prices are still up 4.6% from the same time last year. And housing prices continue to outpace wages. The Eurozone: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, economic data are pointing to euro-area growth stalling. Europe: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The unemployment rate appears to have bottomed in some states. The Eurozone: According to the ECB (European Central Bank), more banks have been reporting an increase in business loan application rejections this year. China: This chart shows China’s exports by destination. Despite the trade war, net exports had a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2019”
Greetings, China: The PBoC injected a sizeable amount of liquidity into the banking system on Tuesday. Global investors noticed the PBoC’s action, pushing US equity futures higher (chart below). Hopes for a US-China interim trade deal also helped stocks around the world (see story from China’s state-owned publication). The Eurozone: The ECB …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 22nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The Bloomberg Buying Climate Index shows that US consumers are ready to go shopping. In addition, about 40% of fund managers now see the US-China trade war as the “new normal” according to BofA Merrill Lynch. Canada: Next, we have some projections of fiscal deficit and debt levels …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 21st, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The combination of the Philly Fed and the NY Fed factory indices also signals an increase in the ISM PMI this month. United Kingdom: The pound’s strength and a lower probability that the BoE will cut rates any time soon sent market-based inflation expectations sharply lower. The greatest declines …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2019”
