Greetings, The United States: Consumers are less enthusiastic about purchasing a vehicle. Eurozone: There is downside risk to Germany’s employment growth. China: How sensitive are Asian currencies to movements in the renminbi? Equities: August is typically a good month for share buybacks. Food for Thought: Europe’s biggest beer producers: Edited by …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 29th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Federal government will be limited in its ability to stimulate the economy in the next recession because the fiscal policy is already extraordinarily loose. Given the current economic expansion, the level of government stimulus is unprecedented. Eurozone: Will slower economic growth put pressure on bank lending? China: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Retail sales have deviated from the recent trend, driven by internet (non-store) sales. Eurozone: Here is a long-term chart of the Eurozone’s bank share index. China: Beijing has adjusted the process for how banks set their lending rates. The net impact is effectively a rate cut (see story). …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The number of news stories that include the word “recession” hit a new high. Are these concerns overblown? Eurozone: Economic data momentum indices across the Eurozone have diverged. China: Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP contracted more than expected. Third-quarter growth is probably in negative territory as well, which would indicate …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Freight shipping activity remains soft. Eurozone: Germany’s leading indicators are worsening. The decline in ad sales has been especially pronounced. China: Outside of the US, China’s export growth remains robust. Emerging Markets: Some improvements in leading economic indicators over the past few months point to a modest …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent stock market volatility pull the NFIB small business optimism down over the next few months? Eurozone: The ECB is not expected to match the Fed on easing policy, which could benefit the euro. China: While further weakness in the yuan raises refinancing risks for Chinese …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Are manufacturers struggling with cash flow? Europe: The UK’s GDP drop last quarter was driven by the post-Brexit-deadline destocking. China: Weakness in China’s currency may help arrest producer price deflation. Global Developments: Here is Deutsche Bank’s risk-fear index. Food for Thought: Home price appreciation in California: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Several leading indicators, such as manufacturing labor costs and oil prices, point to slower inflation ahead. Europe: Dutch industrial sales fell by more than 10% (from the previous year) for the first time in a decade. China: Goldman estimates that capital outflows have picked up, although nothing like …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) deteriorated again this month. Europe: Is there more pain ahead for Germany’s economy? China: Monetary conditions have been improving lately, which should offset some of the trade-related headwinds. Global Developments: The weakness in semiconductor sales points to a further slowdown …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Weaker business orders (and diminishing logistics bottlenecks) point to downside risks for transportation and warehousing jobs. Europe: European bank stocks continue to underperform. China: Consumption now makes up a greater share of China’s GDP growth. Global Developments: This chart shows the global disconnect between manufacturing and services …
