Greetings, The United States: According to Bloomberg, the market still expects another rate cut next year (chart below). Some economists see more than one (second chart). Asia-Pacific: Japan’s tax hike and a super-typhoon have resulted in the biggest monthly drop in retail sales in recent history. Emerging Markets: Which EM countries are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2019”
Greetings, As a reminder, the Daily Shot and the Daily Shot Brief will not be published on Thursday. To our readers in the United States: Happy Thanksgiving! The United States: Growth in small business employment has been slowing. The Eurozone: Negative rates have been a drag on European bank shares. The ECB hopes …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Economists remain concerned about slowing business investment. Europe: M&A has picked up momentum. China: This chart shows Chinese state enterprises’ (black) and private firms’ (orange) ratio of cash to short-term debt. Equities: March S&P 500 put options outstanding keep climbing. (Put options are the right, but not …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 26th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index is recovering from the August slump. Gallup’s economic confidence index also shows improvement. The Eurozone: The Markit PMI report showed potential signs of stabilization in the Eurozone’s factory sector. However, service-sector growth continues to slow. China: According to Gavekal, Chinese cities have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 25th, 2019”
Greetings, The United Kingdom: Spending is expected to increase even if the Tories win. As a result, Goldman expects a stronger fiscal tailwind in the UK than the euro area. Europe: Will the US open another front in its trade war? Asia-Pacific: Japanese firms have been increasingly profitable. China: Excavator sales …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The map below shows the changes in year-to-date exports to China relative to 2018. Europe: Here, we have home price appreciation vs. mortgage lending growth by country. Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong’s stock market is under pressure again. Despite the uncertainty, mainland China investors have been piling into Hong Kong’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 21th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Despite the rebound in construction activity, surveys suggest that households remain cautious on the housing market. The Eurozone: Negotiated wages are rising at the fastest pace in a decade. Economists expect this trend to raise inflation in the months ahead. China: The US Senate action on Hong Kong …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2019”
Greetings, Equities: US stock market volatility continues to moderate amid signs of investor complacency. – The S&P 500 daily trading range: – Speculative accounts are pressing their short VIX bets. (VIX is a measure of the market’s expectations for volatility) Source: @AndreasSteno; Read full article Additionally, the S&P 500 climbed last week, but the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: Last week’s softer economic data sent the Citi Economic Surprise index into negative territory. Asia-Pacific: According to Natixis, Japanese banks have survived without passing on negative interest rates to their clients. To maintain profitability, they boosted their commissions by selling mutual funds and doubled their share of overseas loans and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2019”
Greetings, Rates: The Fed’s balance sheet normalization (quantitative tightening) lasted about 21 months. Some 40% of this reduction has been reversed in just over two months. Credit: The ratio of high-yield (HY) to investment-grade (IG) spreads is climbing. It tells us that HY debt is underperforming IG on a spread basis. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2019”
