Greetings, Administrative Updates 1. Please note that The Daily Shot, as well as the Daily Shot Brief, will not be published on Monday, September 7th. 2. Please contact Help@TheDailyShot.com for any technical or account-related issues/questions. 3. Administrative updates are published on our website here. United States: Americans are moving into lower-density communities within their metro areas. Regional mortgage …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 28th, 2020
Greetings, United States: For the first time in years, the Fed announced a new approach to inflation targeting. The central bank will now focus on price levels rather than the rate of change. Moreover, the Fed will put a higher emphasis on the health of the labor market. The markets reacted by pushing longer-term …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 27th, 2020
Greetings, United States: According to JP Morgan, credit/debit card spending hasn’t been significantly impacted by the loss of unemployment benefits. However, the situation could change if there is no additional stimulus after the White House program ($300/week) expires. Japan: According to Barclays Research, Japan’s households “face a slide in disposable income due to …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 26th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Is the rout in rail freight ending? Even the extra $300 payments (as opposed to $600 paid earlier) will fully replace many Americans’ lost incomes. Eurozone: Consumers are starting to make major purchases – possibly using some of their savings. Asia – Pacific: According to Natixis, “a stronger …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 25th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: This scatterplot shows the average earnings surprise for Q2 vs. the year-over-year earnings growth rate (by sector). Rates: SOMA securities purchases over time: Will slower growth in the Fed’s balance sheet boost the dollar? Emerging Markets: Which bonds are most vulnerable to global inflation? United States: Many homeowners …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 24th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: The stock market is increasingly pricing in higher corporate taxes as the US elections approach. The underperformance of companies with the highest median tax rates has accelerated. Will volatility start to rise ahead of the US elections? Credit: Leverage (debt-to-EBITDA) has risen sharply this year. Energy: Brent contango (1st chart) …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 21st, 2020
Greetings, United States: After four weeks of declines, initial unemployment claims rose last week. China: The yield curve has flattened considerably since May. The PBoC has kept liquidity relatively tight and resisted lowering short-term rates. Energy: The US oil futures curve is in contango. And the time spread (price between contracts) should …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 20th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The US dollar bounced from the lows after the Fed minutes were released. Some have suggested that the market response was due to the Fed’s rejection of yield-curve control as a policy tool. It is used by several central banks, notably the BoJ. Here is how stock futures reacted to a stronger dollar. The …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 19th, 2020
Greetings, United States: This chart shows consumer debt changes in the first half of 2019 and 2020 (significant reductions in credit card debt). Europe: Job losses due to corporate restructuring have been substantial. Also, the Swiss Franc remains negatively correlated with markets that signal risk-on, such as equities and yields/curve. Energy: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 18th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Will another CARES package thrust the nation’s budget deficit to a new record? Search activity trends for rentals vs. real estate listings have diverged. Moreover, many of the rental searches are for single-family homes in the suburbs. Eurozone: Economists are concerned that the rebound is stalling as high-frequency indicators flatten …
