Greetings, The United States: US economic growth is expected to remain subdued this year. • The Conference Board Leading Indicator: The Eurozone: Germany’s yield curve has flattened substantially. Here is the 10yr – 2yr Bund spread. Equities: The rally in both bonds and stocks this year has been unusual. China: The yuan’s strength has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 28th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the Q1 growth has converged with the economists’ consensus estimate at 1.5%. Oxford Economics sees the GDP expansion of around 1%. Are the falling Treasury yields telling us to expect much weaker growth ahead? The Eurozone: This chart shows the market-based probability of a rate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Outbound container volume points to stronger US exports at the beginning of the year. The Eurozone: China’s imports from Italy and France have diverged. Equities: Google search activity points to increased concerns about a recession among retail investors. China: Leading indicators point to further deterioration in China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Investors increasingly expect higher US unemployment a year from now. The Eurozone: China’s economic rebound should stabilize the Eurozone’s growth. Equities: This chart compares the tech sector with global stocks across different metrics. China: These charts show the growth in China’s bond markets. Global Developments: Speculative accounts …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 25th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists expect slower US growth this year, but not a recession. According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast for the 2019 full-year GDP growth is 2.4%, which may be a bit optimistic. The Eurozone: Economists will be downgrading Germany’s GDP growth forecasts further Equities: This chart shows cumulative tech …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Next, we have the World Economics SMI for March. This index measures business activity at the national level. It shows confidence rebounding, but caution around hiring persists. The Eurozone: Spain’s trade deficit is rising (partially due to strong domestic demand). Equities: The chart below shows US semiconductor manufacturers’ …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The FOMC downgraded its forecasts for the GDP growth and the headline inflation (PCE). The Committee left the core (ex. food & energy) inflation projections unchanged. The Eurozone: This chart shows the divergence in industrial production growth. Equities: Share buyback activity appears to be fading. China: China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The HPS-CS sentiment index shows households becoming concerned about personal finances. The Eurozone: While the Eurozone’s GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US. Equities: US equities have significantly outperformed global stocks in recent years (in part because of higher tech …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Tax refunds continue to lag last year’s trend. The Eurozone: Here are the drivers of the Eurozone’s slowdown in exports Equities: This year’s rally was not accompanied by cyclicals’ outperformance. China: China’s weakening demand weighs on Japan’s exports. Global Developments: Airfreight activity in Europe and Asia is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US hotel occupancy rates are showing some weakness recently. The Eurozone: Non-performing loan percentages in the Eurozone periphery have been declining. Equities: Margin debt as a percentage of the NYSE market cap is at the lowest level since 2014. China: China’s prime-age population has peaked. Food for Thought: Lebanon’s offshore exploration …