Greetings, The United States: US temp employment has been contracting in recent months. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s private sector remains heavily reliant on banks for funding (as opposed to capital markets). Equities: This chart shows the recent flows in sector ETFs. China: Here is how the PBoC responded to the housing market …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US companies have cut back on foreign investment. The Eurozone: Over the long term, inflation is likely to keep slowing as the population ages. Equities: Banks’ trading revenues are expected to be weak this quarter. China: Shadow finance continues to shrink. Global Developments: Is there more …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Small business sentiment eased this year. The Eurozone: The ECB’s liftoff expectations have been pushed further out. The second chart below shows a forecast for the central bank’s policy rates (from Pictet Wealth Management). Equities: Will margin growth deteriorate over the next couple of years? China: Goldman’s market-implied …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The tax-driven corporate earnings repatriation (which boosted last year’s share buybacks) is over. The Eurozone: French, Italian, and Spanish industrial production rebounded in January, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Equities: VIX futures’ beta to the S&P 500 has been unusually low. China: Large banks have been slashing their lending to …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Is the nation’s productivity growth about to slow? The Eurozone: The ECB feels that it achieved its goal of monetary transmission (lower rates in the “real” economy). It also reduced fragmentation (dispersion of lending rates across the Eurozone). Equities: While analysts have been downgrading their forecasts for this year’s revenues and …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Finally, here is Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast (by quarter). The Eurozone: Is there more pain ahead for the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector? Equities: This has been the longest bull market on record. China: Below, we have some data on China’s household debt. Global Developments: The growth in central banks’ aggregate …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists have consistently underestimated job growth in the US. The Eurozone: Recession probability in the Eurozone has risen sharply. Equities: Are US earnings growth expectations stabilizing? China: These are China’s debt growth rates over the past three years. Global Developments: The US consumer is responsible for a substantial portion of the …