Greetings, Equities: After a sharp rebound on Monday, global shares and US futures are lower this morning as the omicron jitters resurface. Credit: The stock rally on Monday didn’t reduce high-yield spreads very much as a bit of risk aversion returns to credit markets. Energy: US onshore oil and gas producers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The news of a COVID variant called omicron spreading in South Africa and elsewhere spooked investors around the world. Reopening stocks tumbled, … … with airlines getting hit particularly hard. Energy: Crude oil tumbled on Friday, with Brent stopping at the 200-day moving average. Implied vol spiked. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s correlation …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The stock market initially cheered Jerome Powell’s reappointment. But then the realization set in that the Fed is now on course to accelerate monetary tightening. Eurozone: On the surface, issuance pressure …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The recent surge in inflation and robust labor markets are forcing the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. The probability of two rate hikes by next July climbed to 60%. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Companies are increasingly utilizing air cargo to speed up key deliveries as other modes of freight transportation become backed up. It’s an expensive way to move inventory. Canada: A number of large union contracts are about to expire, potentially resulting in sharp wage increases. Europe: Next, we have the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Residential construction activity is moderating, especially in single-family housing. Here are housing starts: And here’s permits: United Kingdom: Inflation surprised to the upside, adding to the BoE’s concerns about being behind the curve. Eurozone: The Eurozone-US inflation divergence has been a drag on the euro. Cryptocurrency: There is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: Retail sales were well above expectations in October, with consumers starting their holiday shopping early (apparently unfazed by higher prices). Eurozone: French fertilizer prices are soaring, which will drive up food inflation. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The sharp rise in import costs has fed through to domestic prices over the past year. A stronger US dollar should slow import inflation. Europe: Russian natural gas flows remain tepid. China: Goldman’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index deteriorated further, driven by inflation concerns. One should be cautious with these results because the U. Michigan survey has diverged sharply from the Conference Board’s indicator. Eurozone: Germany’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Jobless claims are approaching pre-COVID levels. Most of the “labor slack” is gone (2 charts). China: Coal futures prices continue to fall as Beijing forces out “speculators.” Equities: The share of companies beating earnings and sales estimates has moderated in the Q3 reporting season. Credit: Inflows into MBS …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2021”
