The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC raised its inflation forecasts for both the current year and 2024.

The market is now well below the FOMC’s rate projections.

The United Kingdom: The CPI report surprised to the upside.

Japan: Japanese banks have significantly outperformed since the yield curve control (YCC) band widened in December 2022.

Equities: Bank shares tumbled after Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on deposit guarantees.

Credit: European financials’ CDS spreads are tightening.

Energy: Gasoline futures jumped as inventories tumbled.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is US production of high-tech equipment:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Homeowner vacancy rates are low.

The Eurozone: The euro-area construction output was above last year’s levels in January.

Emerging Markets: LatAm fund managers have been increasing cash positions.

Equities: Rolling 12- and 24-month blended earnings estimates:

Credit: This chart shows agency MBS securities held by banks. Will we see more forced selling to meet deposit withdrawals?

Commodities: The iron ore rally is fading.

Food for Thought: Electric or gas stove:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional index was well below forecasts, as demand slumped.

The spread between wage growth for “job switchers” and “job stayers” tightened sharply last month, suggesting that demand for labor may be easing.

The Eurozone: Investors are bullish on Eurozone vs. US equities.

China: The World Economics SMI report showed a further acceleration in China’s business activity this month.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation has turned negative since the SVB fiasco.

Credit: European banks’ CDS spreads are not signaling a contagion.

Commodities: The rebound in wheat prices is fading.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are mentions of “ChatGPT” vs. “inflation” on Twitter:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

Tightening financial conditions over the past few days are equivalent to a significant rate hike.

The United Kingdom: Inflation expectations are easing.

Energy: Oil demand is highly correlated to GDP growth.

Equities: Stock futures in the US and Europe are under pressure after the Credit Suisse deal.

Global Developments: Economies with the most overvalued asset prices and those that rely relatively more on bank financing would likely suffer the greatest GDP decline during a major repricing of risk, according to Oxford Economics.

Food for Thought: EV and battery investments:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Banks have borrowed $165 billion from the Fed over the past week:

– $152.85 billion via the discount window and …

– $11.9 billion via the Fed’s new emergency facility (Bank Term Funding Program). And there is more to come …

The Eurozone: The central bank’s hawkish action shifted rate trajectory expectations sharply higher.

Energy: Crude oil appears to be oversold.

Equities: This chart shows financial sector performance globally since March 8th.

Investor sentiment has been moving deeper into bear-market territory.

Rates: Inflows into Treasury funds remain elevated.

Food for Thought: Projections for Medicare spending:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

Credit: Despite mounting banking fears, European banks are generally in good shape.

Another regional bank spooking investors is First Republic Bank, which had its debt downgraded to BB. Below is the bond price.

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid bank crisis fears.

Commodities: Gold has been rallying together with the US dollar. That’s highly unusual, indicating a rush into “safe-haven” assets.

The United States: Retail sales declined last month. Here are the contributions.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s government deficit has blown out.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are views on China in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Housing inflation continues to dominate core CPI gains (2 charts).

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate remains relatively low.

Equities: Are stocks now oversold relative to bonds?

Rates: Ultrashort bond funds have not matched the smooth ride offered by true cash assets (index tracking the 30-day Treasury bill).

Credit: US auto loan delinquencies continue to rise.

Food for Thought: Lastly, US bank failures over time:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Treasury curve steepened sharply in response to the SVB collapse.

Financial conditions tightened meaningfully on Monday.

Credit: How would capital ratios be impacted if banks had to crystallize unrealized losses on bonds?

Equities: Balance sheet strength is in focus.

The Eurozone: The market has massively repriced the ECB terminal rate.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw outflows for the fifth consecutive week, the largest weekly outflow on record.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the number of objects in low Earth orbit:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields are down sharply over the past couple of days.

The market has massively repriced Fed rate hike expectations. 50 bps this month looks unlikely now.

Equities: Big banks have been the beneficiaries of SVB’s troubles (as deposits flow in their direction).

Here is last week’s performance data across sectors.

Credit: This chart shows mark-to-market losses in the overall banking system.

Canada: The employment report was stronger than expected.

Emerging Markets: EM debt sales have slowed.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are different ballistic missile trajectories:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of unemployment applications has now surpassed the average of 2018, 2019, and 2022 levels.

Continuing claims are now well above last year’s levels.

Equities: Equities have diverged from bonds as recession risks resurface.

Credit: IG fund flows remain robust.

Rates: Flows into Treasury funds have been strong.

China: The PPI weakness has been driven by upstream price declines.

Food for Thought: NYC hotel prices:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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