From our sponsor: Greetings, Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: These charts show CPI components by inflation rate for the US and the Eurozone. Is there more disinflation ahead for the US? Europe: European assets bounced relative to the US, partly because of the weaker dollar. Global Developments: Fund managers increasingly view the US dollar …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Existing home sales were down almost 30% last month on a year-over-year basis. More homeowners will be renting rather than selling their houses as homebuyer demand crashes. Emerging Markets: It’s been a lost decade for Brazil. Cryptocurrencies: Crypto remains under pressure. Coinbase’s debt price …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 21st, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: US private investment is expected to tumble next year, driven mostly by stalling residential construction. Much of the Treasury curve is now inverted. China: The housing surplus is massive. Emerging Markets: Bond fund outflows have been most severe in local-currency debt. Energy: Russian oil output …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Despite strong retail sales in October, real holiday spending is expected to be down this year for the first time since the GFC. Industrial production edged lower last month, driven by utilities (warmer than usual weather) and softer oil production. The United Kingdom: The headline …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: This year has seen the sharpest rise in borrowing costs during a hiking cycle. Here is the evolution of market pricing for the fed funds rate trajectory. The Eurozone: China’s rebound should be positive for the euro. Emerging Markets: EM stocks are nearing overbought territory. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: To begin, freight rate inflation continues to ease as demand softens. The U. Michigan consumer survey report shows that selling conditions for homes continue to decline. Equities: Many analysts expect an earnings recession ahead. Which sectors are most vulnerable to earnings revisions? China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Households see a deterioration in their balance sheets. Retailers’ pricing power continues to weaken as inventories climb. Europe: European shares are in overbought territory. China: Beijing wants the banking system to support property developers. Emerging Markets: It was a challenging week for Brazilian …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Outside of shelter CPI, a number of items signaled slower inflation in October (shown on a month-over-month basis). Here is Core CPI excluding shelter. The terminal rate dipped below 5%. Here is the market expectation for the fed funds rate trajectory. China: Stocks surged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: To begin, the deterioration of housing affordability over the last twelve months has been exceptionally rapid. The public tends to start noticing inflation when the CPI hits 4-5%. Cryptocurrency: Binance will not acquire FTX after all, which triggered another round of selling in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2022”
