The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for June jumped 8.3 points to 60.5, well above the 53.5 consensus. According to the University of Michigan’s analysis, the improvement suggests that “Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.” Both the current conditions (63.7 vs. 59.4 consensus) and expectations (58.4 vs. 49.0 consensus) subindices posted strong beats.

Canada: The loonie continues to strengthen against the USD.

Europe: The Norwegian krone has strengthened against the euro, buoyed by rising energy prices.

Credit: Loans from US commercial banks to non-bank financial institutions have more than doubled since 2020, now exceeding $1.25 trillion. This sharp rise underscores the deepening entanglement between traditional banks and shadow banking, amplifying systemic risk.

Energy: Brent registered its 19th-largest weekly climb since 1988, …

… but is holding below $75/bbl.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s positioning index has been inching higher but remains in underweight territory.

Food for Thought: Average monthly residential electric utility bill:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The May CPI print was notably soft, with both headline and core figures coming in well below forecasts.

The United Kingdom: The UK housing market remains sluggish, according to the May RICS report.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s factory output fell below last year’s levels but remained relatively strong in April.

Rates: Deutsche Bank expects a Fed rate cut in December, followed by two more cuts in Q1 2026.

Commodities: Broad commodities remain near record lows relative to the S&P 500.

Equities: The put-call ratio has been trending lower, reflecting waning demand for downside protection.

Food for Thought: Largest CEO compensation packages in 2024 by pay component:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Small business uncertainty remains elevated.

The United Kingdom: Gilt yields fell after the employment report.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s consumer inflation eased in May while the core CPI held steady.

Cryptocurrency: The total crypto stablecoin market cap has crossed $262 billion.

Commodities: Platinum prices continue to surge.

Equities: The relative downtrend in US small-caps has narrowed with signs of improving momentum.

Food for Thought: Disney operating income by segment:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Morgan Stanley forecasts a continued slowdown in US nominal consumption growth through 2026, with particular weakness in goods spending due to tariff-driven inflation, labor market softening, and increased consumer uncertainty.

The Eurozone: Despite making up just 4% of the Eurozone economy, Ireland contributed half of the region’s GDP growth over the past year.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports surged in May.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s surge above $106K triggered a spike in short liquidations within just a few hours.

Commodities: Systematic funds have reduced their exposure to gold, slightly diverging from the metal’s price rise.

Equities: Options traders are bullish on the Russell 2000.

Food for Thought: Acceptance rates at top US universities:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The unemployment rate held steady.

The United Kingdom: The EU remains the UK’s dominant trade partner, accounting for over 40% of total exports.

China: Deflation in producer prices intensified.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s positioning index continues to rebound.

Global Developments: Equity ETFs (USD):

Food for Thought: Who US consumers have discussed their credit card debt with:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Job cut announcements eased in May.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity remains sluggish.

India: Stocks jumped.

Equities: Here is a look at breadth across S&P 500 sectors.

Credit: Who owns US corporate bonds?

Food for Thought: Frequency of Americans consulting astrology, tarot cards, or fortune tellers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications continue to track 2023 levels.

Canada: CAD/USD held long-term support with improving momentum and a reduction in extreme short positioning.

Europe: Sweden’s services PMI beat expectations, returning to expansion.

Equities: Wall Street’s year-end 2025 S&P 500 targets have shifted decisively higher, with several strategists now projecting gains of 10% or more as tariff concerns ease.

Credit: Community banks have seen a dramatic decline in both count and asset share over the past four decades. As Michelle Bowman assumes the Fed’s top regulatory role with a pro-community bank stance, attention will turn to whether her deregulatory approach can arrest this long-standing consolidation trend.

Food for Thought: Usage of social media platforms among US adults:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Job openings increased in April, topping expectations.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s CPI in May unexpectedly fell below 2%.

Commodities: China’s coking coal futures remain under pressure amid a decline in domestic steel demand.

Equities: Here is a comparison of borrowing costs for small-cap companies and S&P 500 firms.

Credit: Most business development companies (BDCs) that obtain loans from the largest US banks are rated BBB or higher.

Food for Thought: Share of respondents who regularly drink tea or coffee by country:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The employment index held in contraction territory.

The United Kingdom: Home prices rebounded in May.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s manufacturing activity remains in recession.

Energy: Solar curtailments in California surged in 2024, with spring showing the most excess as midday solar output outpaced demand and transmission constraints limited exports. Despite record battery deployment and real-time trading gains via the Western Energy Imbalance Market, structural oversupply and grid inflexibility continue to force large volumes of solar offline.

Equities: US earnings revisions have rebounded more quickly than those in the rest of the world.

Food for Thought: How workers “look busy” during the workday:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Real incomes excluding government transfers rose 0.3%.

The Eurozone: An ECB rate cut this week is fully priced in.

China: The non-manufacturing sector showed modest growth.

Energy: Bearish Brent bets have been rising.

Equities: Here is a look at valuations for key US indices.

Food for Thought: US Google search trends for life skills from 2010 to 2025:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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