The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP-GDI divergence (see definition) remains a concern.

The United Kingdom: UK stocks and bonds have been highly correlated.

The Eurozone: The rapid money-supply contraction signals weaker economic activity ahead

Energy: US gasoline futures fell further on Thursday.

Equities: Tight financial conditions suggest that dividend yields should be higher.

Food for Thought: Immigrant founders of unicorn companies in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The market has repriced the expected longer-term fed funds rate trajectory in recent weeks.

The restriction of oil supply is viewed as the largest upside risk to headline inflation.

Energy: Crude oil backwardation is deepening amidst supply concerns (2 charts).

Equities: Equity analysts are assuming a rebound in business activity ahead. However, surging bond yields (driving up mortgage rates), the resumption of student loan payments, and the looming government shutdown will be a headwind for the US economy.

Commodities: Gold is finally succumbing to surging real rates.

The Eurozone: The contraction in the money supply has accelerated.

Food for Thought: Oil consumption adjusted for GDP:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Like the University of Michigan’s report, the Conference Board’s indicator revealed a decline in consumer sentiment this month, with a notable weakness in the expectations measure.

The United Kingdom: Will consumer spending stagnate next year?

China: Here is a look at China’s top 25 real estate companies.

Cryptocurrency: This map shows the status of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and pilot projects.

Commodities: US feeder cattle futures took a hit on Tuesday (stopping at the 50-day moving average) after the USDA reported limited cash sales.

Food for Thought: The web browser market:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: US industrial activity is stabilizing along with China’s credit impulse.

The Eurozone: PMI indicators point to downside risks for economic growth.

Equities: Tighter liquidity conditions (due to the Fed’s QT) could weigh on stocks.

Year-to-date, the top seven stocks have accounted for the majority of the returns in the S&P 500.

Commodities: Uranium prices are surging, boosting share prices of uranium producers.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s inflation continues to ease.

Food for Thought: Nursing homes are disappearing:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: US financial conditions have been tightening, driven by a stronger US dollar, higher yields, wider credit spreads, and a pullback in stocks.

Equities: Retail investors are not as keen on buying the dip in the current selloff.

Credit: Which sectors have the highest share of 2024 and 2025 bond maturities?

Europe: Switzerland and the UK, which held rates unchanged, saw their currencies underperform last week.

China: According to the World Economics SMI report, inflation has returned to China’s services sector.

Emerging Markets: Real rate differentials are less supportive of EM carry trades.

Food for Thought: US automakers’ market capitalization per employee:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s US Leading Index has seen a 17-month consecutive decline, …

… a pattern not observed since the Global Financial Crisis.

The United Kingdom: The BoE left rates unchanged (MPC voted 5-4 in favor of holding) after core inflation registered a monthly decline in August.

Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, …

… putting pressure on the yen.

Commodities: Gold continues to consolidate.

Equities: It’s been a rough couple of days for stocks after the Fed’s “higher for longer” warning.

Food for Thought: US metro areas by population:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: According to Oxford Economics, the maximum impact of the Fed’s tightening will be felt over the next couple of quarters. We may see a modest recession.

However, markets have been pricing in economic strength. Are investors in for a disappointment?

Global Developments: Recessions have generally been rarer through time, especially since 1982.

Equities: How did different equity factors react to the Fed’s hawkish message of “higher for longer”?

Energy: Energy shares (XLE) have been underperforming oil prices (USO).

Europe: Germany’s producer prices saw the biggest yearly decline on record in August.

Food for Thought: Here are the highest and lowest men-to-women ratios:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Shipping rates appear to be stabilizing as the freight recession eases.

The United Kingdom: This chart shows the lengths of economic expansions.

Europe: Norway’s inflation forecasts were also revised higher.

Energy: WTI crude oil is trading above Deutsche Bank’s fair value estimate based on the dollar and global growth.

Equities: As the Fed pauses rate hikes, the stock market performance will depend on whether the US enters a recession.

Rates: Unlike state and local governments, the US Treasury did not term out more of its debt, which is resulting in sharply higher interest expenses.

Food for Thought: Assets by generation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Increased talk of a “soft landing” tends to precede a recession.

Homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly dipped this month as elevated mortgage rates and reduced affordability erode demand.

Rates: Historically, the timing of the last rate hike coincided with a cycle peak in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Energy: The recent crude rally has been driven mostly by higher demand.

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have covered their bets against the dollar.

Canada: Industrial producer prices jumped last month.

Commodities: Sugar futures hit a multi-year high amid export restrictions in Asia and concerns about the sugar cane harvest in Brazil.

Food for Thought: Here is reliance on key minerals in vehicle production:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Import prices were unchanged in August.

The United Kingdom: The housing market continues to struggle (2 charts).

China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index has been testing support.

Commodities: Gold implied vol hit the lowest level since 2019.

Equities: On average, more NYSE stocks are making new one-year price lows.

Credit: Much higher interest costs are ahead for many firms.

Food for Thought: US leading causes of death:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief