Greetings, Equities: Stock futures are heavy in early trading (chart below) amid rising coronavirus cases outside of China (second chart). Rates: The Fed officials’ language has been a bit more hawkish. Energy: Did Russia pull a fast one on Saudi Arabia in the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts? Emerging Markets: EM …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 24th, 2020”
Greetings, China: Hong Kong’s CPI surprised to the downside amid soft demand. Japan: Pavilion Global Markets expects Japan’s stimulus measures to continue to be targeted at aiding household consumption and boosting public construction activity. Here’s a breakdown of the GDP growth by component. United States: The Philly Fed regional manufacturing report was …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Residential construction continues to surprise to the upside. The January housing starts and building permits exceeded market expectations. United Kingdom: Real earnings are finally above the pre-crisis peak. China: Other than the count adjustment a few days ago, the number of new coronavirus cases has been slowing. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The top 20% of households by income generate almost all the savings in the US. United Kingdom: The UK’s rising net foreign liabilities have been financing the trade deficit. Eurozone: The rebound in Germany’s ZEW indicator stalled amid concerns about the coronavirus epidemic (second chart). Germany’s industry is heavily …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 19th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: How much has the economy slowed in the current quarter? Weak business investment continues to weigh on growth. Japan: The Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) have benefited from a safety bid over the past year. China: Local debt issuance spiked as governments struggle with declining revenue. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 18th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The stock market gains have been boosting consumer confidence. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations indices: Consumers’ assessment of their stock market investments: Eurozone: The Eurozone is experiencing its slowest growth since 2013: China: VC funding activity has slowed. Equities: The S&P 500 registered a bearish …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 17th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Initial and continuing unemployment claims remain at multi-year lows. United Kingdom: The pound rose in response to the resignation of British finance minister Sajid Javid. Traders expect Javad’s replacement to boost government spending, which, in theory, should stimulate growth. China: China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio climbed sharply last year, hitting …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2020”
Greetings, China: The coronavirus has put a third of China’s population and nearly half it’s GDP under lockdown. The Eurozone: In 2019, the euro-area manufacturing output declined by the highest percentage since the Great Recession. United States: Once again, the US budget deficit was worse than the consensus estimate ($33 bn vs. $10 …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 13th, 2020”
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley’s model points to a rebound in core retail sales in January, backed by a series of upside surprises in hard and soft economic data. The Eurozone: The Eurozone needs to see some stabilization in industrial production to avoid a recession. China: A sizeable number of China’s banks are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Auto loan delinquencies have diverged from other consumer credit markets. The velocity of money hit a multi-decade low. One way to think about this trend is that it takes an increasing amount of credit (including bank credit to the federal government) to generate the same amount of GDP. The Eurozone: Germany’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2020”
