Greetings, The United States: The spread between job gains for workers vs. managers (especially in cyclical sectors) declined last month. If the trend continues, it would indicate that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. China: Are capital outflows picking up again? The Eurozone: Central banks are increasing their allocations …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The overall consumer debt (as % of disposable income) has declined in recent years even as the total household net worth rose. This divergence suggests that, on average, US household balance sheets remain relatively healthy. Of course, these trends have been highly uneven across income categories. China: China’s manufacturing wage …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US financial conditions have tightened, but we are nowhere close to the levels we saw in 2016. China: China’s stocks have been outperforming US markets over the past month. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the euro area GDP growth over the next couple of years. Credit: Leveraged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator has been moving lower since September. China: Some economists predict a further slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector (before stabilization). The Eurozone: Credit demand in the Eurozone has been slowing and is expected to become a drag on loan growth. Credit: Baa-rated corporate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan survey tells us that Americans who expect the highest long-term inflation have been scaling back their projections. China: US imports of Chinese goods that are subject to 25% tariffs are collapsing. That’s why a delay in the current 10% tariffs becoming 25% is a big deal. But …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The Q3 GDP update was unchanged at 3.5%. Here are the latest adjustments of the GDP components. China: These charts show the components of China’s consumer credit and debt-service burden. The Eurozone: Italian banks have a relatively small liquidity position, making them more vulnerable. Global Developments: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast for the next couple of years (including the GDP components). China: China’s official export figures have diverged from those reported by its trading partners The Eurozone: Exports have been weakening at the Eurozone level as well (and diverging from the global trend). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The divergence between “soft” and “hard” consumption indicators persists. China: Housing inventories are expected to climb next year. The Eurozone: Low oil prices sent market-based inflation expectations sharply lower. Global Developments: What does growth in the world’s monetary base tell us about the timing of the next recession? Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 26th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US railcar loadings (an indicator of economic activity) are still well above the levels we saw in previous years. However, railcar loadings of cyclical cargo have slowed more than they did in 2017 for this time of the year. China: Lower government bond yields should support the housing market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The headline CPI is expected to decelerate sharply next year as a result of lower oil prices and a stronger US dollar. China: Business conditions have deteriorated. The Eurozone: The selloff in China’s stock market does not bode well for the Eurozone’s carmakers. Rates: Rather than relying on …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2018”
