The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Next, we have the World Economics SMI for March. This index measures business activity at the national level. It shows confidence rebounding, but caution around hiring persists.   The Eurozone: Spain’s trade deficit is rising (partially due to strong domestic demand).   Equities: The chart below shows US semiconductor manufacturers’ …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The HPS-CS sentiment index shows households becoming concerned about personal finances.   The Eurozone: While the Eurozone’s GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US.   Equities: US equities have significantly outperformed global stocks in recent years (in part because of higher tech …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Tax refunds continue to lag last year’s trend.   The Eurozone: Here are the drivers of the Eurozone’s slowdown in exports   Equities: This year’s rally was not accompanied by cyclicals’ outperformance.   China: China’s weakening demand weighs on Japan’s exports.   Global Developments: Airfreight activity in Europe and Asia is …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US hotel occupancy rates are showing some weakness recently.   The Eurozone: Non-performing loan percentages in the Eurozone periphery have been declining.   Equities: Margin debt as a percentage of the NYSE market cap is at the lowest level since 2014.   China: China’s prime-age population has peaked.   Food for Thought: Lebanon’s offshore exploration …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Small business sentiment eased this year.   The Eurozone: The ECB’s liftoff expectations have been pushed further out. The second chart below shows a forecast for the central bank’s policy rates (from Pictet Wealth Management).   Equities: Will margin growth deteriorate over the next couple of years?   China: Goldman’s market-implied …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The tax-driven corporate earnings repatriation (which boosted last year’s share buybacks) is over.   The Eurozone: French, Italian, and Spanish industrial production rebounded in January, exceeding economists’ forecasts.   Equities: VIX futures’ beta to the S&P 500 has been unusually low.   China: Large banks have been slashing their lending to …