The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The February Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) showed further moderation in US business growth. Business confidence and hiring indices slumped.   The Eurozone: Portfolio outflows have worsened at the end of 2018. Will we see a reversal this year?   Equities: Here is the percentage of the S&P 500 stocks that are above the …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Home sales should strengthen.   The Eurozone: This fascinating chart compares the relative popularity of Italy’s populist parties with the 10-year Italian government bond spread. Equities: There has been quite a bit of hype about the possibility of an earnings recession. Is it overblown?   Credit: These two charts show ABS and CMBS yearly …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States:Here is the trend in bankruptcies and foreclosures.   The Eurozone: Here is the industrial production breakdown. Is the worst over for the Eurozone’s industrial output?   Equities: Earnings recessions haven’t typically coincided with economic downturns in recent years.   Credit: A weak CLO market has been a drag on leveraged loan performance.   …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Has the CBO underestimated the federal deficit in its latest forecasts?   The Eurozone: This scatterplot shows industrial confidence vs. sensitivity to Chinese demand.   Equities: This chart shows the latest earnings growth expectations for 2019.   Credit: Leveraged finance default rates continue to drift lower.   Energy: The WTI curve is still in contango while …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: In recent years, the US has been able to run substantial budget deficits without paying higher costs for lax fiscal policy. Is the “free lunch” over? The Eurozone: The ECB is defending its QE program, suggesting that it helped reduce inequality.   Equities: Futures-based Fed rate hike expectations have diverged from the stock …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: After a relatively strong holiday shopping season, retail sales weakened sharply in January. Below is Morgan Stanley’s retail sales tracker.   Emerging Markets: Investors pulled quite a bit of capital out of South Africa last year.   The Eurozone: Has the Eurozone’s unemployment rate bottomed?   Equities: The Fear & Greed index is rapidly …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US manufacturing growth continues to outperform China and the Eurozone. Is this divergence sustainable?   China:  Economic activity indicators point to deterioration that is not fully visible in the official figures. • Goldman’s indicator: • Barclays’ indicator:   The Eurozone: Robust wage growth should boost the services CPI.   Equities: Here is the ratio …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Small business sentiment has deteriorated.   China: Below is the breakdown of fiscal revenues and expenditures.   The Eurozone: The average retail deposit rate ticked higher for the first time in seven years.   Equities: Sector funds saw substantial outflows over the past three months.   Credit: This chart shows the shift …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The ECRI leading index of economic indicators appears to have stabilized as well.   China: China is expected to keep growing its renewables capacity.   The Eurozone: Italy’s underperformance has worsened.   Equities: The 2019 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 keep moving lower.   Credit: Overall, interest coverage ratios are …