The Daily Shot Brief – September 21st, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Consumer sentiment edged up this month, with the U. Michigan index topping forecasts. Expectations of business conditions improved.   Eurozone: The recent decline in service inflation was driven by travel-related sectors, the impact of which is likely to be transient.   Europe: European banks’ underperformance has accelerated (nearly 30% year-to-date).   …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Analysts are starting to have doubts about a CARES 2 stimulus package this year. Here are the aggregate probabilities from superforecasters.   The concern is that cutting off the stimulus checks could reverse the recent economic gains. At this point, the recovery is already slowing, making it vulnerable to a shock.   …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: The latest weakness in the US dollar has been good for smaller US manufacturers by helping them compete on price. Smaller industrial firms have outperformed (the equal-weight stock index below gives smaller industrial firms more weight).   Since we are on the topic of currencies, the dollar-yen volatility market is pricing …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 10th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: The Indeed job postings indicator is still 19% below last year’s level. This scatterplot shows employment recovery vs. peak-to-trough employment loss by state. According to Deutsche Bank, more than half of those on temporary layoff have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. Many of these temporary layoffs will be “converted” …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: There has been a substantial increase in households that “sometimes or often” go hungry.   Many can’t cover basic expenses.   United Kingdom: The pound has been under pressure as Brexit concerns resurface.       Commodities: Industrial commodities buyer activity has accelerated in August.   Energy: The Saudis cut oil …