The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2024

Greetings,

 

Equities: It was the best post-election session for stocks on record.

Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

The S&P 600 (small caps) finally surpassed its 2021 record high, marking its largest one-day gain since 2020.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: Munis took a hit on Wednesday as the outlook for lower taxes and higher deficits makes muni debt less attractive.

Source: @WSJ   Read full article  
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Precious metals declined as the dollar surged on Wednesday.

Source: @WSJ   Read full article  

 

The United States: Market-based inflation expectations surged on anticipated accommodative fiscal policy under Trump.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank raised rates by 50 bps amid strong economic growth (boosted by fiscal stimulus) and persistent inflation. Some global central banks (including the Fed) see this reversal as a nightmare scenario, risking a loss of credibility.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Financial Post   Read full article  

 

Global Developments: Here is a look at Wednesday’s currency market performance.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Demographic shifts in support for Trump since 2020:

Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, and the Senate has flipped to the GOP.

 Betting market probabilities:

Source: Kalshi

 

The United Kingdom: The final UK services PMI for October was revised upward.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: Wage growth eased in Q3.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s service sector is growing rapidly.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: With the US dollar surging, here’s an overview of equity sector sensitivity to the dollar.

Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook

 

Food for Thought: Natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in the US:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2024

Greetings,

 

Equities: Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong for an election year.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

Cryptocurrency: Weak online search activity for ‘bitcoin’ indicates limited direct retail participation in the recent rally, …

Source: @0xGumshoe  

 

… with gains primarily fueled by fund flows.

Source: Michael Green; @dailychartbook   Further reading  

 

Rates: This chart shows bond volatility premiums ahead of the US elections.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

Commodities: China still consumes more than half of global commodities. This is compared to a less than 30% share of global commodity demand in 2005, according to ANZ Research.

Source: @ANZ_Research  

 

The Eurozone: French bond yields are now above that of Spain.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: This scatterplot displays the rate differentials of various EM currencies against the USD versus their implied volatility, illustrating potential carry versus risk.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Time taken for AP to call each state’s presidential race in 2020:

Source: @axios   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – November 4th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The unemployment rate held steady.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The current level of fiscal loosening is the highest since the pandemic.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: Speculative accounts have shifted to a net long position in US corn futures.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The outperformance of cyclicals over defensives has diverged from the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Rates: The Fed’s RRP facility balance hit the lowest level since 2021 as money market funds find better value in T-bills.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets

 

Food for Thought: Americans of Puerto Rican origin:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumer spending posted solid growth in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Rate cut expectations have been curtailed somewhat.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Services inflation has been firmer.

Source: ING

 

Commodities: Here is October’s performance data.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Here are the details behind Thursday’s selloff.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US voter enthusiasm:

Source: Gallup

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: US job openings dropped sharply last month, falling below their pre-COVID peak.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Last month’s mortgage approvals topped expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is trading near record highs, testing the next resistance level at $74k.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The market responded positively to Alphabet’s results, driving shares sharply higher after the close.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @technology

 

Rates: Treasury market implied volatility keeps climbing ahead of the US elections.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Amazon deforestation:

Source: @BW

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2024

Greetings,

 

Equities: Investors are increasingly long on equity futures while also shifting to a net long position in VIX futures, which is unusual.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog  

 

The United States: Market-based inflation expectations should be heading lower with oil prices.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Commodities: So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: An improving credit impulse in the Eurozone could bolster economic expansion.

Source: BCA Research  

 

Credit: Cat bonds continue to outperform despite the recent hurricane damage.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin broke above resistance at $70k ahead of the US elections.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Food for Thought: GLP-1 drug candidates in the pipeline:

Source: The Economist   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The combination of rising bond yields and a stronger dollar has been tightening US financial conditions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: The loonie’s 2-week implied volatility has surged in anticipation of the US elections.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: The resilient economy accounted for roughly half of the recent rise in Treasury yields, which caused markets to pare back large rate cut expectations. The other half is possibly due to election pricing.

Source: Russell Investments   Read full article  

 

Equities: Volatility premium (implied vs. realized) tends to rise ahead of the US presidential elections.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

China: Industrial profits softened further in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM equity funds are seeing some ouflows.

Source: BofA Global Research  

 

Commodities: Palladium jumped another 3% on Friday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Online casino revenue in New Jersey is closing in on land-based casinos:

Source: @technology   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The flash US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global held in contraction territory this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: UK manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory this month, according to S&P Global’s PMI report.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: China-focused equity funds are seeing outflows.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: Gold fund inflows surged in recent days.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: The S&P 500 has stayed above its 200-day moving average for 246 consecutive sessions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: The rise in fentanyl-related deaths shifts to the western US.

Source: @bpolitics

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Existing home sales remained at multi-year lows in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM index correlations to China’s CSI 300 Index have collapsed.

Source: PGM Global  

 

Equities: Short interest in the US equity market has steadily declined throughout this month.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @SteamroomTrader  

 

Commodities: Here is the evolution of the Brent skew in recent days.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Canada: The BoC delivered a 50 bps rate cut.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

 

The Canadian economy is more sensitive to interest rates than the US, given its elevated household leverage.

Source: MRB Partners  

 

Global Developments: Bloomberg’s US dollar index is up 3% month-to-date.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Defense spending as a percentage of GDP in Europe for 2022 and 2024:

Source: Alpine Macro  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com