The United States: US CEO sentiment has deteriorated sharply since January, with April showing the lowest expectations for profit, CapEx, and hiring over the next 12 months. The share of firms anticipating declines now outpaces those expecting gains across all three categories, signaling rising caution amid growing economic uncertainty.
China: China’s labour-intensive manufacturing sectors have seen broad-based declines in employment since around 2015, with textiles, clothing, and fur products experiencing the steepest drops.
The United States: The March NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a sharp rise in the percentage of Americans anticipating higher unemployment, aligning with findings from the April University of Michigan consumer survey.
Source: TheDailyShot
The United Kingdom: Economists once again downgraded UK GDP growth projections this month
Source: Bloomberg
China: This chart shows the progression of US tariffs on China in recent years.
Global Developments: Here is a look at post-“Liberation Day” performance across key assets. Energy, copper, and equities fell the most, while European sovereign bonds and gold held up.
The United States: Spooked by surging long-term Treasury yields, the White House has implemented a dramatic set of tariff adjustments. It has temporarily reduced the previously imposed reciprocal tariffs on most US trade partners to a flat 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while sharply raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports remains in place.
Additionally, following the expiration of the temporary USMCA suspension, vehicle tariffs are now likely in effect—potentially imposing a 25% duty on vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico, with the threat of further increases.
While a new 125% tariff on select Chinese goods may appear aggressive, such extreme levels likely yield diminishing returns, as trade volumes collapse and substitution effects intensify—placing the US on the downward slope of the tariff Laffer Curve.
The United States: Longer-dated Treasury yields continued to rise amid recession concerns—which could pressure the federal government’s fiscal position—and declining foreign demand. The sharp selloff in Treasuries could drive up US borrowing costs, strain credit markets, and impact the housing sector.
Source: The Daily Shot
Europe: French manufacturing production climbed in February.
Source: The Daily Shot
Emerging Markets: Turkey’s inflation continues to moderate.
Source: The Daily Shot
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has entered a death cross.
Source: The Daily Shot
Commodities: Iron ore futures are tumbling.
Source: The Daily Shot
Equities: Someone has thrown a Hail Mary pass.
Source: The Daily Shot
Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally:
