The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Here is the progression of tariffs on Chinese imports (increasingly impacting consumer products).   Rates: Here is an updated chart on Treasury holdings.   China: Deutsche Bank expects China’s current account balance to flip into deficit next year.   The Eurozone: When is the ECB’s “liftoff”?   Equities: While bank shares tend to …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 17th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Here, we have a few additional updates on the housing market. • This chart shows mortgage originations by loan type. • The housing sector’s contribution to the GDP remains below the pre-crisis highs (the housing recession began in 2006). • And here is the housing affordability index by region.   Rates: With cross-currency swap …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 4th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Despite the manufacturing sector’s relatively small contribution to the (service-focused) US economy, factory earnings make up a significant portion of the total nonfinancial operating profits.   Global Developments: How long do economic expansions last? The analysis below is based on 77 advanced-economy recessions.   China: Despite concerns about a slowdown, …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 2nd, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The FOMC has consistently been underestimating the pace of declines in the unemployment rate during this cycle.   Global Developments: How have the government debt-to-GDP ratios changed since 2006?   China: The rate of new project approvals suggests increasing fiscal stimulus.   The Eurozone: Has the Fench debt-to-GDP ratio peaked? …