The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: US transport/logistics prices continue to climb.   China: Bank lending rates have been unusually high relative to money market rates.   The Eurozone: Part of the reason for the euro area’s equity underperformance is the weakness in the “administered” (state-controlled) sectors. Slower GDP growth has also been a factor.   Equities: Does …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: How will the latest tariff increases impact consumer inflation?   China: The latest increase in China’s exports was driven by US firms “frontloading” orders ahead of tariffs.   The Eurozone: Italy benefitted tremendously from the ECB’s TLTRO program (chart below) as lending rates contracted (second chart below).   Equities:  Market timers have …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Will improved pricing power in the corporate sector result in an upside inflation surprise?   China: The percentage of Chinese bonds held by foreigners keeps climbing.   Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q4 GDP tracker for the Eurozone.   Equities: Valuations remain reasonable since the October selloff. However, analysts are concerned …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: US multinationals have been repatriating cash from Ireland.   Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s bond yields are still climbing.   Eurozone: Real rate differentials between the Eurozone and the US have been a drag on the euro.   Equities: Bank shares were also lagging amid concerns that Democrats will increase scrutiny on the sector. …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The US agricultural sentiment index (Ag Economy Barometer) improved in October on hopes that the NAFTA 2.0 deal will ease trade tensions.   China:Goldman’s money-supply indicator for China has diverged from the nation’s credit growth.   Eurozone:  Economists expect rising wages to nudge the Eurozone’s inflation rate higher.   Equities: …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer.   China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling).   Europe:  Finally, this chart shows government debt …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: This chart shows US household formation over time (renters vs. homeowners).   China: This chart shows the RMB (yuan) usage in foreign payments.   The Eurozone:  Switzerland’s PMI is declining quickly (yesterday we saw sagging economic confidence – see chart).   Equities: Small banks have boosted their borrowing in recent months …