Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the NFIB small business sentiment report, which showed growing optimism in November. China: Currency traders have been bidding up yuan options ahead of the December 15th US tariffs deadline. Commodities: Gold tends to be inversely correlated with US real rates. Equites: Most of the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: With mortgage rates remaining relatively low, more Americans think that now is a good time to buy a house. Also, household assets as a percentage of disposable income are at record highs, boosted in part by low interest rates. The Eurozone: According to a BIS study, the European repo market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan surprised to the upside. Strong labor markets continue to boosts households’ confidence. Will improved sentiment boost consumer spending? The United Kingdom: The pound has been strengthening against the euro. The market expects the Conservatives to gain a sufficient majority in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: It’s been a tough year for farmers and their insurers. Total flood and excess moisture-related crop insurance payouts now top $5.3 billion as a result of significant flooding this year. The United Kingdom: Growth in household’s cash balances (and cash-equivalents) has been rising. Will a faster pace of consumption …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ADP private payrolls report was well below market expectations. The ADP data also showed that small businesses hiring has stalled. United Kingdom: The pound continues to rally as polls show Conservatives maintaining their lead. With a decisive majority in Parliament, the Prime Minister will finalize the current separation …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Cyber Monday online sales hit a new record, rising almost 20% from a year ago. Europe: Below is the European outbound M&A activity with US targets. China: Is China on track to follow Japan’s deleveraging cycle? If so, expect currency weakness, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Emerging Markets: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI report was surprisingly bad, with key sub-indices coming in below market expectations (PMI below 50 means contraction). –Backlog of orders: -There are no signs of price pressures. The Eurozone: Depositors appear to be less risk-averse as cash moves out of Germany. Europe: Have European …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2019”
Greetings, China: Corporate bond defaults have become the new normal. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s November report on trade showed no indication of a meaningful rebound in exports. However, the manufacturing PMI index shows signs of stabilization. United States: Morgan Stanley’s CapEx expectations index keeps deteriorating. Emerging Markets: Latin American currencies have underperformed …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: According to Bloomberg, the market still expects another rate cut next year (chart below). Some economists see more than one (second chart). Asia-Pacific: Japan’s tax hike and a super-typhoon have resulted in the biggest monthly drop in retail sales in recent history. Emerging Markets: Which EM countries are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2019”
Greetings, As a reminder, the Daily Shot and the Daily Shot Brief will not be published on Thursday. To our readers in the United States: Happy Thanksgiving! The United States: Growth in small business employment has been slowing. The Eurozone: Negative rates have been a drag on European bank shares. The ECB hopes …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2019”
