The Daily Shot Brief – August 19th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The number of news stories that include the word “recession” hit a new high. Are these concerns overblown?   Eurozone: Economic data momentum indices across the Eurozone have diverged.   China: Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP contracted more than expected. Third-quarter growth is probably in negative territory as well, which would indicate …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 16th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Freight shipping activity remains soft.   Eurozone: Germany’s leading indicators are worsening. The decline in ad sales has been especially pronounced.   China: Outside of the US, China’s export growth remains robust.   Emerging Markets:  Some improvements in leading economic indicators over the past few months point to a modest …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 13th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Are manufacturers struggling with cash flow?   Europe: The UK’s GDP drop last quarter was driven by the post-Brexit-deadline destocking.   China: Weakness in China’s currency may help arrest producer price deflation.   Global Developments: Here is Deutsche Bank’s risk-fear index.   Food for Thought: Home price appreciation in California: …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) deteriorated again this month.   Europe: Is there more pain ahead for Germany’s economy?   China: Monetary conditions have been improving lately, which should offset some of the trade-related headwinds.   Global Developments: The weakness in semiconductor sales points to a further slowdown …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Weaker business orders (and diminishing logistics bottlenecks) point to downside risks for transportation and warehousing jobs.   Europe:  European bank stocks continue to underperform.   China: Consumption now makes up a greater share of China’s GDP growth.   Global Developments: This chart shows the global disconnect between manufacturing and services …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The employment cost index vs. the prime-age non-employment rate (a variation of the Phillips Curve):   The Eurozone: Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate.   China: The widening spread between Chinese and US bond yields should provide some support for the renminbi.   Credit: Investors can’t get enough of muni funds. Food …