Greetings, United States: These rapid improvements in the labor market are allowing the Fed to accelerate QE taper. Eurozone: Suppliers to Germany’s automotive industry are gloomy. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s domestic demand is highly sensitive to policy rate changes. China: Beijing gave leveraged developers some breathing room, but the credit crisis in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Funds have been dumping the most expensive tech shares.. Momentum stocks continue to underperform. Rates: Speculative accounts are betting on further flattening in the 10yr – 30yr part of the curve. Cryptocurrency: Open interest in bitcoin’s futures market remains high despite last week’s sell-off. United States: The ADP employment …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and surprising the markets. United Kingdom: Consumer activity is already impacted by the omicron news. Europe: Demand for put options jumped in recent days. Implied volatility climbed. China: The Markit report did, however, show moderation in price …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: After a sharp rebound on Monday, global shares and US futures are lower this morning as the omicron jitters resurface. Credit: The stock rally on Monday didn’t reduce high-yield spreads very much as a bit of risk aversion returns to credit markets. Energy: US onshore oil and gas producers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The news of a COVID variant called omicron spreading in South Africa and elsewhere spooked investors around the world. Reopening stocks tumbled, … … with airlines getting hit particularly hard. Energy: Crude oil tumbled on Friday, with Brent stopping at the 200-day moving average. Implied vol spiked. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s correlation …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The stock market initially cheered Jerome Powell’s reappointment. But then the realization set in that the Fed is now on course to accelerate monetary tightening. Eurozone: On the surface, issuance pressure …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The recent surge in inflation and robust labor markets are forcing the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. The probability of two rate hikes by next July climbed to 60%. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Companies are increasingly utilizing air cargo to speed up key deliveries as other modes of freight transportation become backed up. It’s an expensive way to move inventory. Canada: A number of large union contracts are about to expire, potentially resulting in sharp wage increases. Europe: Next, we have the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Residential construction activity is moderating, especially in single-family housing. Here are housing starts: And here’s permits: United Kingdom: Inflation surprised to the upside, adding to the BoE’s concerns about being behind the curve. Eurozone: The Eurozone-US inflation divergence has been a drag on the euro. Cryptocurrency: There is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: Retail sales were well above expectations in October, with consumers starting their holiday shopping early (apparently unfazed by higher prices). Eurozone: French fertilizer prices are soaring, which will drive up food inflation. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2021”
