Greetings, The United States: Containerboard production is another indicator pointing to softer growth ahead. The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, the divergence between manufacturing and services persists. Equities: According to the IHS Markit PMI, corporate earnings will be under pressure going forward. China: China’s household debt (as % of income) has …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: These are the industries that will benefit from the de-escalation of North American trade tensions. The Eurozone: Here is an illustration of the EU’s institutions. Equities: The S&P 500 has been consolidating recently, suggesting higher volatility ahead. Australia: The Aussie dollar has diverged from the Australian-US rate differential. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The housing market can have a visible impact on the broader service sector. The Eurozone: The latest weakness in German factory orders is driven by soft demand from outside of the Eurozone. Equities: Will the US corporate sector avoid an earnings recession? China: Beijing has succeeded in slowing/reversing China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Fed has consistently been too pessimistic about the future trajectory of the unemployment rate. The Eurozone: Are the Eurozone’s inflation expectations sufficiently low for the ECB to consider additional easing actions? Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 performance decomposed into the overnight and intraday price action. Lately, …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: A survey from the NY Fed shows economists downgrading their forecasts for the core PCE inflation. The Eurozone: This chart shows the Eurozone’s consumption vs. the working-age population growth. Equities: US equity fund outflows persist. China: The nation’s savings rate stands out vs. economies with similar per-capita …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Some economists remain concerned about slowing business investment, especially as trade-related risks resurface. The Eurozone: Capital Economics sees the Italian government budget deteriorating sharply next year, boosting bond yields. Equities: Buybacks continue to prop up the stock market. China: Here is the structure of China’s economy. Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: How much of the weakness in the core PCE inflation measure has been due to “transitory” factors? Apparently, not enough to explain the recent decline. The second chart below shows the breakdown. The Eurozone: Germany is more exposed to the US-China trade dispute than other Eurozone economies. Equities: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economic sentiment continues to improve. The second chart below shows the components of the index. The Eurozone: Who is in favor of the euro? Equities: Oil and trade-war issues contributed to the earnings growth slowdown. China: This chart shows China’s export growth. Global Developments: Here is the growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US financial conditions have tightened with the rise in trade tensions with China. The Eurozone: The French government budget target looks very different from last year’s projections. Equities: US equity ETF outflows continue. China: China buys parts (such as semiconductors) from Taiwan and South Korea and sells the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists are puzzled by the diverging gauges of the labor market (see descriptions). The Eurozone: Does Germany’s stronger industrial production point to improved GDP growth? Equities: The Q1 earnings growth expectations have rebounded into positive territory. However, the second-quarter EPS growth consensus has moved into the red (vs. …
