The Daily Shot Brief – April 18th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The multi-decade lows in the US jobless claims overstate the strength of the labor market. According to Capital Economics, many states have tightened their unemployment compensation requirements after 2008, reducing the number of Americans who qualify for these benefits. The Eurozone: Here are the shadow rates for the largest Eurozone economies. Italy’s …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: When will the economic cycle peak? Here is a survey of investors and business executives. The Eurozone: Germany’s CapEx orders growth should bottom out as China’s economy rebounds.   Equities: Analysts’ forecasts for stock prices and earnings growth have diverged.   China: One of the drivers of China’s industrial rebound has been …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Housing affordability has been deteriorating, especially in western US states.   The Eurozone: Despite the weakness in Germany’s factory output, manufacturing employment kept expanding (even in the automotive sector).   Equities: Tech margins are nearly 3x the median S&P 500 sector.   China: China’s credit impulse is starting to pick up.   …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: An index based on legal transactions (LegalShield) does not support the recent jump in existing home sales.   The Eurozone: The “gilets jaunes” movement persists.   Equities: The global corporate earnings newsflow index has stabilized.   China: The housing market policy conditions remain tight (in 2017 Beijing tightened requirements for …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Business credit applications have slowed in the first quarter.   The Eurozone: The euro’s historical volatility has tumbled this year (60-day vol shown below).   Equities: International developed markets look increasingly undervalued vs. the US.   China: Lending is on the rise again.   Global Developments: The ANZ Global Leading …