The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market has sharply repriced the fed funds rate trajectory over the past few days.

Equities: Despite slowing inflation, companies that benefit form higher prices have been outperforming.

The Eurozone: French current account deficit hit a record high, driven by deep trade deficit.

The United Kingdom: UK large caps are trading near record highs.

Commodities: This chart shows the evolution of gold production by country.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield held support at 3.3% and returned above its 50-day moving average. Resistance is around 4%.

Global Developments:Here is a look at monetary overhangs in the US, the Eurozone, and the UK.

Food for Thought: A rebound in mall visits?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The GDP impact of tightening financial conditions (which peaked in mid-2022) should ease this year.

Equities: Here are year-to-date US equity fund flows by fund group.

The Eurozone: Euro-area financial stocks are improving in absolute and relative terms.

Japan: Nominal wages surged in December.

Europe: The Swedish krona has been under pressure (chart shows EUR gaining against SEK).

Rates: Foreign demand for US Treasuries strengthened in December.

Energy: The copper price has sharply diverged from the Brent oil price.

Food for Thought: Here is the Chinese spy balloon’s path across North America:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: With over half a million jobs created, the January jobs report far surpassed economists’ expectations. Job gains were broad:

The jobs report shocker boosted rate hike expectations, with the terminal rate back above 5%.

Equities: The NYSE New Highs/New Lows indicator reached its best reading since 2021.

Global Developments: How did the manufacturing PMIs change over the past month?

Emerging Markets: Here are last week’s EM 10yr government bond yield changes.

Energy: The US oil rig count dipped back below 600 last week.

Europe: EU renewable solar and wind power production overtook natural gas.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top pizza chains:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Employment growth has slowed the most in cycle-sensitive sectors.

Unit labor costs increased less than expected last quarter.

The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps, …

… amid elevated inflation and wage growth.

Equities:Tech shares drove outperformance in several sectors over the past few days.

The Eurozone:More rate hikes are coming.

Commodities: The inverse correlation between gold and US real yields has weakened.

Food for Thought: Pedestrian deaths:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC’s focus is now on the components of the core inflation index sensitive to wage growth, such as food services.

The ADP private payrolls report is signaling a hiring slowdown in January. It’s unclear if this softening will be reflected in the official jobs report.

Equities: Companies with international sales exposure continue to outperform as the US dollar softens.

VIX dipped below 18 for the first time in over a year.

Global Developments: January was a strong month for global assets, following a challenging 2022.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PMI signaled slower manufacturing contraction.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index broke out into “greed” territory for the first time since March 2022.

Food for Thought: It’s Groundhog Day. Here are some stats:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: US employment cost index falls for the third quarter.

• The 1-year US sovereign credit default swap spread signals market fears similar to 2011. The market expects the government to take the debt ceiling fight to the brink.

Canada: Economic growth slowed in November but remained in positive territory.

China:The manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global was less upbeat than the official report. Factory activity remains in contraction mode.

United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals in the United Kingdom fall significantly.

Commodities: Coffee futures are rebounding.

Equities: Small caps have been outperforming.

Food for Thought: Who lost money on crypto?

Edited by Josh  Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The market has been betting against the FOMC dot plot.

Canada: The market expects the next BoC move to be a rate cut.

China: As China’s economy reopens, consumers are opening their wallets (2 charts).

The Eurozone: Germany’s GDP unexpectedly declined last quarter.

Equities: Earnings misses have been resulting in outperformance so far. Too much enthusiasm?

Rates: Treasury futures positioning is extraordinarily bearish.

Food for Thought: Here are tech layoffs by sector:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The overall consumer spending level is back on its pre-COVID trend.

Source: The Daily Shot

Rates: Rate markets’ implied volatility continues to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

The Eurozone: Euro-area economic surprises have boosted investor sentiment.

Source: TS Lombard

Emerging Markets: Performance data of currencies from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

Equities: Next, we have the performance of each sector from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

Global Developments: The US dollar weakened during the 2011 debt ceiling impasse.

Source: ING

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here are the largest sports betting states.

Source: @OpenAxisHQ

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The Q4 GDP growth was stronger than expected.

The broad money supply has not registered a year-over-year decline like this in decades, which should help cool inflation.

Rates: The market is pricing a faster pace of Fed rate cuts than it did a month ago.

The Eurozone: Investors keep flooding into European stocks.

Emerging Markets: India’s Nifty index is under pressure as Adani companies’ share prices plunge.

Equities: BofA wealth management clients have been dumping REITs.

Global Developments: Here is the IMF World Uncertainty Index.

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here’s life expectancy vs. GDP per capita.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage rates are down 100 bps from the recent highs.

Canada: The BoC hiked rates by 25 bps and signaled a pause. The market doesn’t see any more rate increases in this cycle, with rate cuts kicking in later this year.

The Eurozone: Goldman no longer expects a recession in the Eurozone.

Asia – Pacific: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the Bank of Korea to raise rates by another 25 bps. Rate cuts could begin around Q4 2023.

Energy: US natural gas futures dipped below $3.0/MMBtu.

Commodities: Political troubles in Peru have been a tailwind for both copper and silver.

Emerging Markets: EM local currency sovereign bonds, particularly in LatAm, significantly outperformed despite a strong dollar and rising global inflation.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the global GDP by country in 2022:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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