The Daily Shot Brief – March 1st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The personal saving rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, registered a slight increase.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Is the housing market rebound stalling?

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

China: The official PMI report showed persistent contraction in China’s manufacturing sector.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds have been seeing record inflows.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: The Nasdaq Composite finally took out the 2021 peak.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: BofA’s clients are selling bills and adding duration.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Most common types of cancer in the US:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 29th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Mortgage applications are holding at multi-year lows as rates climb.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: HousingWire  Read full article

 

The Eurozone: The euro-area economic surprise index has rebounded, aligning with that of the US.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

China: Hong Kong’s exports climbed back to 2021 levels in January.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: South China Morning Post  Read full article

 

Japan: The BoJ is starting to prepare the market for rate hikes. The yen and short-term JGB yields jumped in response.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Eurostat  Read full article

 

Equities: Here is a look at sector correlations to reserve balances (liquidity banks hold at the Fed).

Source: HSBC; @WallStJesus

 

Commodities: The bearish positioning in grains looks stretched.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Extreme-weather insurance trends:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 28th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Capital goods orders edged higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: Hiring has not kept pace with the population surge (some of which was driven by the influx of students).

Source: Economics and Strategy Group, National Bank of Canada

 

Japan: The rise in the jobs-to-application ratio suggests the labor market will loosen from here.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Emerging Markets: Mexican exports last month were slightly softer than in January of 2023.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The current bull market remains below the median trajectory.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog

 

Credit: The increase in downgrades could signal more defaults to come. (2 charts)

Source: S&P Global Ratings
Source: S&P Global Ratings

 

Food for Thought: Total crypto payments to hackers:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Could we see a rebound in housing inflation?

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

Japan: JGBs declined in response to the CPI report which came well above forecasts, with the 2-year yield reaching a multi-year high.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ  Read full article

 

Energy: The recent jump in US natural gas prices proved to be fleeting, with forecasts calling for unusually warm weather in the eastern United States in the coming days.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: NOAA

 

Equities: The S&P 500 has advanced for 15 of the last 17 weeks – the longest winning streak since 1989.

Source: h/t Henry Allen, Deutsche Bank Research

 

Credit: High-yield bond spreads continue to tighten.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: The recent increase in Treasury yields has been about economic growth expectations, not just hawkish monetary policy.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: China’s daunting demographic challenges:

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 26th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consensus projections show slower growth over the next couple of quarters, with momentum picking up in Q4.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: High unit labor costs have weighed on profit margins among EU member states.

Source: ECB

 

Cryptocurrency: Ether continues to outperform.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: 75% of financial advisors have little exposure to gold.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: The S&P 500 experienced 253 trading sessions without a 2% daily drop.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: The living wage gap:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – February 22nd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Underlying inflation momentum is rising again.

Source: TS Lombard

 

Equities: A second inflation wave in the US could be problematic for stocks.

Source: JP Morgan Research  Further reading

 

Rates markets have been pricing out some of the Fed rate cut expectations. The equity market has not.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @WallStJesus

 

The United Kingdom: Improving economic growth momentum could delay a BoE pivot.

Source: BCA Research

 

Commodities: Cocoa futures hit another record high as inventories sink.

Source: @JavierBias, @opinion  Read full article

 

Global Developments: Japan and the US experienced significantly higher-than-average earnings outperformance in Q4, in contrast to Emerging Markets, which persistently fell short of estimates.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: Virtual reality patents:

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: While the six-month changes in the indicator continue to suggest recessionary conditions, the Conference Board no longer anticipates a recession.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The Eurozone: The current account surplus widened.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Dollar-denominated HY bonds are rebounding.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Litecoin has not been participating in the latest crypto rally.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: S&P 500 bullish sentiment appears stretched.

Source: Longview Economics

 

Food for Thought: Number of debit/credit card transactions per month:

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The World Economics SMI report signals an acceleration in US business activity this month. Price pressures appear to be easing.

Source: World Economics

 

China: Beijing unexpectedly instructed the banks to cut the benchmark mortgage rates by 25 bps.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Nikkei Asia  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: EM real policy rates are still substantially higher than developed markets. There is much greater room for further EM rate cuts.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Equities: The S&P 500 is increasingly tech-heavy.

Source: @liamdenning, @opinion  Read full article

 

Most S&P 500 sector valuations are running above their 25-year averages.

Source: @FactSet  Read full article

 

Rates: BofA’s private clients are getting back into TIPS.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Issues that are underreported by the national media:

Source: @YouGovAmerica  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 19th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The January report on producer prices surpassed expectations, with the increase fueled by consumer-facing services sectors.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Europe: Sweden’s core inflation for January matched projections, reflecting an ongoing moderation in the pace of price increases.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: State-owned entities continue to bail out the stock market:

– Domestic ETF flows:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

– Beijing-ordered share buybacks:

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s shares keep outperforming.

Source: @markets  Read full article

 

Equities: Goldman boosted its target for the S&P 500 this year.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @Mike Zaccardi

 

Commodities: The cocoa rally is fading.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Risks most likely to present a crisis on a global scale:

Source: WEF  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 16th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Manufacturing output contracted in January, also driven by frigid weather in parts of the country.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Europe: Here is a look at recession risks in Europe.

Source: @economics

 

China: Is China’s equity underperformance versus EM peers finally over?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Dividend growers have been outperforming the average stock in the S&P 500.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: WTI crude is making another run at the 200-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Credit: Smaller banks are more exposed to commercial real estate (2 charts).

Source: @wealth
Source: @PaulJDavies, @opinion

 

Food for Thought: US centenarian population:

Source: Pew Research Center

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.