The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: US CEO sentiment has deteriorated sharply since January, with April showing the lowest expectations for profit, CapEx, and hiring over the next 12 months. The share of firms anticipating declines now outpaces those expecting gains across all three categories, signaling rising caution amid growing economic uncertainty.

Canada: Foreign investors dumped Canadian shares in February.

Japan: Headline CPI eased in March, but core inflation measures accelerated.

Commodities:  The gold rally accelerated this morning as the US dollar sinks.

Equities:  Stock futures are heavy this morning.

Credit: Foreigners have been selling US corporate bonds

Food for Thought: Task duration AIs can complete by the model release date:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields have declined in recent days, particularly in the “belly” of the curve.

Japan: Export growth was disappointing last month.

China: China’s labour-intensive manufacturing sectors have seen broad-based declines in employment since around 2015, with textiles, clothing, and fur products experiencing the steepest drops.

Cryptocurrency: So far, it has been a mixed week for cryptos, with Solana (SOL) outperforming and Ether (ETH) underperforming top peers.

Equities: The stock market continues to price in stagflationary risks.

Rates: Investors flocked to T-bills and intermediate-term Treasuries during the recent risk-off period.

Food for Thought: Leisure reading frequency among US teenagers since 1984:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index, the first such report of the month, showed a smaller-than-expected contraction.

China: Investors see Beijing’s stimulus boosting growth in the second half.

Canada: The March inflation report came in below expectations.

Equities: A warning from Nvidia sent its stock price tumbling in after-hours trading.

Commodities: ETFs’ gold purchases have accelerated.

Rates: BofA’s private clients continue to rotate out of Treasury bills into notes.

Food for Thought: US estimated undocumented employment by sector as a share of total sector employment:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The March NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a sharp rise in the percentage of Americans anticipating higher unemployment, aligning with findings from the April University of Michigan consumer survey.

The United Kingdom: Economists once again downgraded UK GDP growth projections this month

China: This chart shows the progression of US tariffs on China in recent years.

Equities: A record number of institutional investors plan to reduce their exposure to US equities.

Global Developments: Here is a look at post-“Liberation Day” performance across key assets. Energy, copper, and equities fell the most, while European sovereign bonds and gold held up.

Rates: The US Treasury term premium has reached its highest level in a decade.

Food for Thought: GameStop is on the verge of selling more collectibles than video games.

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Soft CPI and PPI reports point to a more modest increase in core PCE inflation for March, the Fed’s preferred gauge.

The United Kingdom: Home price appreciation improved slightly this month.

China: Bank loan growth has stabilized slightly above 7%.

Equities: Vol control funds will be forced to buy if the market stabilizes.

Commodities: It’s been an impressive start of the year for gold.

Rates: Volatility has risen sharply.

Food for Thought: Best-selling car in each US state in 2024 based on new vehicle registrations:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Core goods CPI declined, while core services inflation rose by the smallest margin since 2021.

The United Kingdom: The pound sold off sharply vs. the euro in recent days.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos with Ether (ETH) significantly underperforming top peers.

Equities: Foreign investors have been selling US stocks.

Commodities: Gold hit a record high, breaching $3,200/oz.

Energy: OPEC+ producers have been angry with Kazakhstan. Here is why.

Food for Thought: USPS business volume and revenue split by category:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Spooked by surging long-term Treasury yields, the White House has implemented a dramatic set of tariff adjustments. It has temporarily reduced the previously imposed reciprocal tariffs on most US trade partners to a flat 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while sharply raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports remains in place.

Additionally, following the expiration of the temporary USMCA suspension, vehicle tariffs are now likely in effect—potentially imposing a 25% duty on vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico, with the threat of further increases.

While a new 125% tariff on select Chinese goods may appear aggressive, such extreme levels likely yield diminishing returns, as trade volumes collapse and substitution effects intensify—placing the US on the downward slope of the tariff Laffer Curve.

Europe: European bond curves have been steepening.

China: The renminbi hit a multi-year low vs. USD.

Credit: Corporate bond spreads tightened on Wednesday.

Commodities:  Here is the commodity market performance on “reversal Wednesday”.

Energy: Brent crude bounced on “reversal Wednesday” but remains below $65/bbl.

Food for Thought: Office-to-apartment conversions in the US:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Longer-dated Treasury yields continued to rise amid recession concerns—which could pressure the federal government’s fiscal position—and declining foreign demand. The sharp selloff in Treasuries could drive up US borrowing costs, strain credit markets, and impact the housing sector.

Europe: French manufacturing production climbed in February.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s inflation continues to moderate.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has entered a death cross.

Commodities: Iron ore futures are tumbling.

Equities: Someone has thrown a Hail Mary pass.

Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer credit unexpectedly contracted in February.

Equities: The S&P 500 intraday trading range hit the highest level since the COVID shock.

Commodities: Gold held support at the 50-day moving average.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index entered “extreme fear” territory.

Credit: Bond spreads keep widening.

Energy: Brent crude dipped below $64/bbl.

Food for Thought: Market-implied probability of more US tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: US stock futures are down sharply this morning.

Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped into bear-market territory this morning.

Commodities: Here is last week’s performance data.

Cryptocurrency: Ether’s underperformance continues to worsen.

Canada: Canada’s unexpected March job loss was the largest in years, led by a sharp decline in full-time employment.

The Eurozone: Germany’s industrial production declined in February.

Food for Thought: Streaming dominates US music industry revenue after overtaking physical and download formats:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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