Greetings, United States: The 2-year Treasury yield broke above 1% as the market prices in faster rate hikes ahead. A 1% increase this year is now fully priced in. Canada: Will we see a BoC hike next week? The market is pricing in a 70%+ probability of such an outcome. The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 18th, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: Market sentiment has been shifting toward more neutral levels as Fed rate hikes loom. The equity market froth we saw last year has come off. The AAII bull-bear spread is holding in negative territory. Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator. Credit: US high-yield spreads are near the lowest levels since 2007. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: US state and local tax receipts have been going to benefit payments rather than investment. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s housing credit growth remains exceptionally strong. Home prices continue to climb. China: Country Garden is an investment-grade builder in China. Even some companies that are not excessively leveraged are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 14th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Economists see inflation peaking within a month or two but staying elevated for some time. What factors are driving businesses to boost prices? China: This chart shows China’s system-wide leverage. Emerging Markets: The betting markets see Lula winning this year’s election in Brazil. Energy: We …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 13th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Some 1.7 million Americans were not at work due to illness in December. Eurozone: High-frequency data point to downside risks for Germany’s consumer spending. China: China needs stability in Kazakhstan. Equities: How do higher yields and policy tightening impact different sectors? Global Developments: The share …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 12th, 2022”
Greetings, Europe: The EU’s trade gap with China keeps widening. Asia-Pacific: Telecommunications prices have been keeping the Tokyo core CPI in negative territory. But that’s likely to end soon. China: Here we go again. Investors remain concerned about developers’ mountain of maturing debt. Energy: Indonesia’s coal hoarding is creating …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 11th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: The December payrolls increase surprised to the downside again. At the same time, the unemployment rate dipped below 4% for the first time in this cycle. The divergence points to further tightening in the labor market. Underemployment (U-6) is nearly back to pre-COVID levels. Europe: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2022”
Greetings, Asia-Pacific: Omicron is pressuring Australia’s consumer spending. China: Offshore and onshore defaults have continued to climb with higher pressure for both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs). Additionally, foreign investors pulled capital out of mainland shares. Cryptocurrency: Crypto crime is increasing, mostly via stolen funds in the …
Greetings, United States: The FOMC minutes revealed an even more hawkish Federal Reserve than the markets were expecting. • Inflation concerns: Participants remarked that inflation readings had been higher and were more persistent and widespread than previously anticipated. Some participants noted that trimmed mean measures of inflation had reached decade-high levels and that the …
Greetings, United States: Voluntary separations reached a new record, with 4.5 million Americans quitting their jobs in November. Here is the breakdown of quit rates by sector. Here is why many Americans are staying out of the labor force. Eurozone: Germany lags behind the US in terms of venture …
