Greetings, The United States: Retail sales have deviated from the recent trend, driven by internet (non-store) sales. Eurozone: Here is a long-term chart of the Eurozone’s bank share index. China: Beijing has adjusted the process for how banks set their lending rates. The net impact is effectively a rate cut (see story). …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The number of news stories that include the word “recession” hit a new high. Are these concerns overblown? Eurozone: Economic data momentum indices across the Eurozone have diverged. China: Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP contracted more than expected. Third-quarter growth is probably in negative territory as well, which would indicate …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 16th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Freight shipping activity remains soft. Eurozone: Germany’s leading indicators are worsening. The decline in ad sales has been especially pronounced. China: Outside of the US, China’s export growth remains robust. Emerging Markets: Some improvements in leading economic indicators over the past few months point to a modest …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent stock market volatility pull the NFIB small business optimism down over the next few months? Eurozone: The ECB is not expected to match the Fed on easing policy, which could benefit the euro. China: While further weakness in the yuan raises refinancing risks for Chinese …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Are manufacturers struggling with cash flow? Europe: The UK’s GDP drop last quarter was driven by the post-Brexit-deadline destocking. China: Weakness in China’s currency may help arrest producer price deflation. Global Developments: Here is Deutsche Bank’s risk-fear index. Food for Thought: Home price appreciation in California: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Several leading indicators, such as manufacturing labor costs and oil prices, point to slower inflation ahead. Europe: Dutch industrial sales fell by more than 10% (from the previous year) for the first time in a decade. China: Goldman estimates that capital outflows have picked up, although nothing like …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) deteriorated again this month. Europe: Is there more pain ahead for Germany’s economy? China: Monetary conditions have been improving lately, which should offset some of the trade-related headwinds. Global Developments: The weakness in semiconductor sales points to a further slowdown …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Weaker business orders (and diminishing logistics bottlenecks) point to downside risks for transportation and warehousing jobs. Europe: European bank stocks continue to underperform. China: Consumption now makes up a greater share of China’s GDP growth. Global Developments: This chart shows the global disconnect between manufacturing and services …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The employment cost index vs. the prime-age non-employment rate (a variation of the Phillips Curve): The Eurozone: Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate. China: The widening spread between Chinese and US bond yields should provide some support for the renminbi. Credit: Investors can’t get enough of muni funds. Food …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 5th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The two charts below show the evolution of US tariffs. The Eurozone: The currency bloc’s producer prices appear to be headed for deflation. China: China was already facing capital outflows. The renminbi’s weakening is expected to accelerate this trend. Global Developments: There is more downside to global trade …
