Greetings, United States: The Treasury curve has been flattening at the longer end, which may signify falling inflation expectations Fund managers increasingly see inflation as transitory. Eurozone: The Eurozone’s industrial production has been lagging the rest of the EU. Emerging Markets: Emerging markets are seeing a broad-based slowdown in manufacturing growth. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 17th, 2021”
Greetings, China: The number of regulatory actions coming out of Beijing has been climbing. China’s capital markets will be scarred by these actions for years to come, with substantial valuation discounts becoming a permanent feature. Eurozone: Material/equipment shortages are most acute in Germany. Here is the breakdown by sector (for the EU). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The CPI report surprised to the downside, with inflation easing in pandemic-sensitive sectors. Treasury yields retreated in response to the CPI miss. Eurozone: Eurozone inflation, when broken into constituents, is largely due to higher commodity costs and supply chain issues. Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is hitting multi-year highs, boosted …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: There are signs of moderation in the US housing market. Europe: European total factor productivity has lagged the US for nearly two decades. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s markets cheered the ruling coalition’s election loss. Cryptocurrency: Crypto markets were whipsawed on fake news on Monday. Rates: There have been …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The betting markets increasingly expect a corporate tax hike. Europe: Some nations want the EU to focus on debt reduction again (after the budget rules were suspended in 2020). Cryptocurrency: Did El Salvador’s move add legitimacy to cryptos? It certainly didn’t help the nation’s bonds. Energy: Total US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Here is the aggregate number of waiting container ships at the three largest US ports. Eurozone: The media coverage of the ECB’s modest (and expected) reduction in securities purchases has been entertaining. The ECB boosted its inflation forecasts. China: Pig herds have been recovering, causing food deflation and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: In another sign of tightening labor market conditions, job openings hit a record high in July. United Kingdom: Tax hikes are coming as the UK debt-to-GDP ratio breaks above 100%. China: Inflation ticked lower in August. Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrencies are stabilizing from the Tuesday sell-off, although performance over the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Automobile sales continue to weaken, with factories cutting output due to supply shortages. United Kingdom: Staying out of the labor force since the start of the pandemic doesn’t seem to be linked to childcare challenges. Eurozone: How will potential outcomes from this week’s ECB meeting impact the euro? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for the Q3 GDP growth tumbled after the jobs report. Bond yields jumped, with the market expecting the Fed to let inflation run hotter in response to softer job gains. China: Majority of companies polled are not interested in moving production out of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2021”
Greetings, As a reminder, the next Daily Shot will be out on Tuesday, September 6th. United States: The ADP private employment report was well below forecasts. United Kingdom: Soft consumer credit expansion will dampen the GDP growth. China: A stronger renminbi will be a drag on manufacturing activity. Energy: US crude …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 2nd, 2021”
