Greetings, The United States: Residential investment has been weakening in recent quarters. At the same time, the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey from the Fed shows falling demand for residential mortgages. It’s worth noting that in the past, declines in residential investment led the way into recessions. China: China increasingly imports goods for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US transport/logistics prices continue to climb. China: Bank lending rates have been unusually high relative to money market rates. The Eurozone: Part of the reason for the euro area’s equity underperformance is the weakness in the “administered” (state-controlled) sectors. Slower GDP growth has also been a factor. Equities: Does …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: How will the latest tariff increases impact consumer inflation? China: The latest increase in China’s exports was driven by US firms “frontloading” orders ahead of tariffs. The Eurozone: Italy benefitted tremendously from the ECB’s TLTRO program (chart below) as lending rates contracted (second chart below). Equities: Market timers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will improved pricing power in the corporate sector result in an upside inflation surprise? China: The percentage of Chinese bonds held by foreigners keeps climbing. Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q4 GDP tracker for the Eurozone. Equities: Valuations remain reasonable since the October selloff. However, analysts are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US multinationals have been repatriating cash from Ireland. Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s bond yields are still climbing. Eurozone: Real rate differentials between the Eurozone and the US have been a drag on the euro. Equities: Bank shares were also lagging amid concerns that Democrats will increase scrutiny on the sector. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The US agricultural sentiment index (Ag Economy Barometer) improved in October on hopes that the NAFTA 2.0 deal will ease trade tensions. China:Goldman’s money-supply indicator for China has diverged from the nation’s credit growth. Eurozone: Economists expect rising wages to nudge the Eurozone’s inflation rate higher. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer. China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling). Europe: Finally, this chart shows government debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US household formation over time (renters vs. homeowners). China: This chart shows the RMB (yuan) usage in foreign payments. The Eurozone: Switzerland’s PMI is declining quickly (yesterday we saw sagging economic confidence – see chart). Equities: Small banks have boosted their borrowing in recent months …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Americans should expect a bump in tax refunds next year (see Morgan Stanley’s comments below). China: This chart shows how Beijing has been “guiding” the housing market. Do the current levels suggest that housing policy tightening is coming? The Eurozone: Is business investment about to slow? Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Finally, the chart below shows how different the run-up in federal debt was in the 1980s vs. over the past decade. China: Will stronger fixed asset investment offset some of the weakness in manufacturing exports? The Eurozone: Here are the updated German political poll results. Equities: Growth …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2018”
