The Daily Shot Brief – April 21st, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: US CEO sentiment has deteriorated sharply since January, with April showing the lowest expectations for profit, CapEx, and hiring over the next 12 months. The share of firms anticipating declines now outpaces those expecting gains across all three categories, signaling rising caution amid growing economic uncertainty.

Source: Chief Executive   Read full article  

 

Canada: Foreign investors dumped Canadian shares in February.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Japan: Headline CPI eased in March, but core inflation measures accelerated.

Source: Reuters

 

Commodities:  The gold rally accelerated this morning as the US dollar sinks.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Source: @markets Read full article

 

Equities:  Stock futures are heavy this morning.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Credit: Foreigners have been selling US corporate bonds

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Task duration AIs can complete by the model release date:

Source: METR Read full article

 


Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Treasury yields have declined in recent days, particularly in the “belly” of the curve.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Japan: Export growth was disappointing last month.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Source: CNBC Read full article

 

China: China’s labour-intensive manufacturing sectors have seen broad-based declines in employment since around 2015, with textiles, clothing, and fur products experiencing the steepest drops.

Source: @financialtimes Read full article

 

Cryptocurrency: So far, it has been a mixed week for cryptos, with Solana (SOL) outperforming and Ether (ETH) underperforming top peers.

Source: Koyfin

 

Equities: The stock market continues to price in stagflationary risks.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Rates: Investors flocked to T-bills and intermediate-term Treasuries during the recent risk-off period.

Source: Morningstar Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Leisure reading frequency among US teenagers since 1984:

Source: @financialtimes Read full article

 


Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index, the first such report of the month, showed a smaller-than-expected contraction.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Investors see Beijing’s stimulus boosting growth in the second half.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Canada: The March inflation report came in below expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: A warning from Nvidia sent its stock price tumbling in after-hours trading.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC

 

Commodities: ETFs’ gold purchases have accelerated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: BofA’s private clients continue to rotate out of Treasury bills into notes.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: US estimated undocumented employment by sector as a share of total sector employment:

Source: Oxford Economics

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 15th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: The March NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a sharp rise in the percentage of Americans anticipating higher unemployment, aligning with findings from the April University of Michigan consumer survey.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

The United Kingdom: Economists once again downgraded UK GDP growth projections this month

Source: Bloomberg

 

China: This chart shows the progression of US tariffs on China in recent years.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

 

Equities: A record number of institutional investors plan to reduce their exposure to US equities.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Global Developments: Here is a look at post-“Liberation Day” performance across key assets. Energy, copper, and equities fell the most, while European sovereign bonds and gold held up.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Rates: The US Treasury term premium has reached its highest level in a decade.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Source: @markets Read full article

 

Food for Thought: GameStop is on the verge of selling more collectibles than video games.

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 14th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Soft CPI and PPI reports point to a more modest increase in core PCE inflation for March, the Fed’s preferred gauge.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

The United Kingdom: Home price appreciation improved slightly this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Bank loan growth has stabilized slightly above 7%.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Vol control funds will be forced to buy if the market stabilizes.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: It’s been an impressive start of the year for gold.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Volatility has risen sharply.

Source: @markets

 

Food for Thought: Best-selling car in each US state in 2024 based on new vehicle registrations:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Core goods CPI declined, while core services inflation rose by the smallest margin since 2021.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The pound sold off sharply vs. the euro in recent days.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos with Ether (ETH) significantly underperforming top peers.

Source: Koyfin

 

Equities: Foreign investors have been selling US stocks.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: Gold hit a record high, breaching $3,200/oz.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: OPEC+ producers have been angry with Kazakhstan. Here is why.

Source: @SPGCIOil

 

Food for Thought: USPS business volume and revenue split by category:

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Spooked by surging long-term Treasury yields, the White House has implemented a dramatic set of tariff adjustments. It has temporarily reduced the previously imposed reciprocal tariffs on most US trade partners to a flat 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while sharply raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports remains in place.

Additionally, following the expiration of the temporary USMCA suspension, vehicle tariffs are now likely in effect—potentially imposing a 25% duty on vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico, with the threat of further increases.

Source: CNBC Read full article

 

While a new 125% tariff on select Chinese goods may appear aggressive, such extreme levels likely yield diminishing returns, as trade volumes collapse and substitution effects intensify—placing the US on the downward slope of the tariff Laffer Curve.

Source: Mizuho Securities USA

 

Europe: European bond curves have been steepening.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

China: The renminbi hit a multi-year low vs. USD.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Credit: Corporate bond spreads tightened on Wednesday.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Commodities:  Here is the commodity market performance on “reversal Wednesday”.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Energy: Brent crude bounced on “reversal Wednesday” but remains below $65/bbl.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Food for Thought: Office-to-apartment conversions in the US:

Source: @axios Read full article

 


Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Longer-dated Treasury yields continued to rise amid recession concerns—which could pressure the federal government’s fiscal position—and declining foreign demand. The sharp selloff in Treasuries could drive up US borrowing costs, strain credit markets, and impact the housing sector.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: French manufacturing production climbed in February.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s inflation continues to moderate.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has entered a death cross.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Iron ore futures are tumbling.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Someone has thrown a Hail Mary pass.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally:

Source: Pew Research Center

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 8th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumer credit unexpectedly contracted in February.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Source: @economics Read full article

 

Equities: The S&P 500 intraday trading range hit the highest level since the COVID shock.

Source:TheDailyShot

 

Commodities: Gold held support at the 50-day moving average.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index entered “extreme fear” territory.

Source: Alternative.me

 

Credit: Bond spreads keep widening.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Energy: Brent crude dipped below $64/bbl.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Food for Thought: Market-implied probability of more US tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024:

Source: Kalshi

Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – April 7th, 2025

Greetings,

 

The United States: US stock futures are down sharply this morning.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped into bear-market territory this morning.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Commodities: Here is last week’s performance data.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Cryptocurrency: Ether’s underperformance continues to worsen.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Canada: Canada’s unexpected March job loss was the largest in years, led by a sharp decline in full-time employment.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s industrial production declined in February.

Source: TheDailyShot

 

Food for Thought: Streaming dominates US music industry revenue after overtaking physical and download formats:

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com