The Daily Shot Brief – March 23rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The FOMC raised its inflation forecasts for both the current year and 2024.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The market is now well below the FOMC’s rate projections.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The United Kingdom: The CPI report surprised to the upside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Japan: Japanese banks have significantly outperformed since the yield curve control (YCC) band widened in December 2022.

Source: BCA Research

 

Equities: Bank shares tumbled after Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on deposit guarantees.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Credit: European financials’ CDS spreads are tightening.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Gasoline futures jumped as inventories tumbled.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is US production of high-tech equipment:

Source: Yardeni Research

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Homeowner vacancy rates are low.

Source: BCA Research

 

The Eurozone: The euro-area construction output was above last year’s levels in January.

Source: The Daily Chess

 

Emerging Markets: LatAm fund managers have been increasing cash positions.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: Rolling 12- and 24-month blended earnings estimates:

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: This chart shows agency MBS securities held by banks. Will we see more forced selling to meet deposit withdrawals?

Source: @WSJ

 

Commodities: The iron ore rally is fading.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Electric or gas stove:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NY Fed’s regional index was well below forecasts, as demand slumped.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The spread between wage growth for “job switchers” and “job stayers” tightened sharply last month, suggesting that demand for labor may be easing.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Investors are bullish on Eurozone vs. US equities.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

China: The World Economics SMI report showed a further acceleration in China’s business activity this month.

Source: World Economics

 

Equities: The stock-bond correlation has turned negative since the SVB fiasco.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: European banks’ CDS spreads are not signaling a contagion.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The rebound in wheat prices is fading.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @KF_Wright, @markets  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are mentions of “ChatGPT” vs. “inflation” on Twitter:

Source: BofA Global Research

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Tightening financial conditions over the past few days are equivalent to a significant rate hike.

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

The United Kingdom: Inflation expectations are easing.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Oil demand is highly correlated to GDP growth.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: Stock futures in the US and Europe are under pressure after the Credit Suisse deal.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: Economies with the most overvalued asset prices and those that rely relatively more on bank financing would likely suffer the greatest GDP decline during a major repricing of risk, according to Oxford Economics.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

Food for Thought: EV and battery investments:

Source: @OpenAxisHQ

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 17th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Banks have borrowed $165 billion from the Fed over the past week:

– $152.85 billion via the discount window and …

Source: The Daily Shot

 

– $11.9 billion via the Fed’s new emergency facility (Bank Term Funding Program). And there is more to come …

Source: @markets

 

The Eurozone: The central bank’s hawkish action shifted rate trajectory expectations sharply higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Crude oil appears to be oversold.

Source: Longview Economics

 

Equities: This chart shows financial sector performance globally since March 8th.

Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital

 

Investor sentiment has been moving deeper into bear-market territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Inflows into Treasury funds remain elevated.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Projections for Medicare spending:

Source: CRFB

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 16th, 2023

Greetings,

 

Credit: Despite mounting banking fears, European banks are generally in good shape.

Source: Wells Fargo Securities

 

Another regional bank spooking investors is First Republic Bank, which had its debt downgraded to BB. Below is the bond price.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Fitch Ratings  Read full article

 

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid bank crisis fears.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Commodities: Gold has been rallying together with the US dollar. That’s highly unusual, indicating a rush into “safe-haven” assets.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

The United States: Retail sales declined last month. Here are the contributions.

Source: @GregDaco

 

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s government deficit has blown out.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Bloomberg Tax  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are views on China in the US:

Source: Alpine Macro

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Housing inflation continues to dominate core CPI gains (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate remains relatively low.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Are stocks now oversold relative to bonds?

Source: Longview Economics

 

Rates: Ultrashort bond funds have not matched the smooth ride offered by true cash assets (index tracking the 30-day Treasury bill).

Source: Morningstar

 

Credit: US auto loan delinquencies continue to rise.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @ResearchQf

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, US bank failures over time:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Treasury curve steepened sharply in response to the SVB collapse.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Financial conditions tightened meaningfully on Monday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: How would capital ratios be impacted if banks had to crystallize unrealized losses on bonds?

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

 

Equities: Balance sheet strength is in focus.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The market has massively repriced the ECB terminal rate.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw outflows for the fifth consecutive week, the largest weekly outflow on record.

Source: CoinShares  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the number of objects in low Earth orbit:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 13th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Treasury yields are down sharply over the past couple of days.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The market has massively repriced Fed rate hike expectations. 50 bps this month looks unlikely now.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Big banks have been the beneficiaries of SVB’s troubles (as deposits flow in their direction).

Source: @paulgp

 

Here is last week’s performance data across sectors.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: This chart shows mark-to-market losses in the overall banking system.

Source: Longview Economics

 

Canada: The employment report was stronger than expected.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM debt sales have slowed.

Source: @andradevini3, @vizcainomariae, @markets  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are different ballistic missile trajectories:

Source: CBO  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 10th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The number of unemployment applications has now surpassed the average of 2018, 2019, and 2022 levels.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Continuing claims are now well above last year’s levels.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equities have diverged from bonds as recession risks resurface.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Credit: IG fund flows remain robust.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Rates: Flows into Treasury funds have been strong.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

China: The PPI weakness has been driven by upstream price declines.

Source: Arcano Economics

 

Food for Thought: NYC hotel prices:

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.