The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: October job openings surprised to the downside, suggesting that labor market imbalances continue to ease.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Company closures have been outpacing business creation.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s retail sales growth has stalled.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The correction is sugar futures continues.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Share buybacks have accelerated, …

Source: BofA Global Research

 

… but are still below last year’s levels year-to-date.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @carlquintanilla

 

Rates: JP Morgan’s active clients are very bullish on Treasuries.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: North Koreans escaping to South Korea:

Source: @financialtimes

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP-GDI divergence has reached extreme levels. Could recent GDP data be overstating the true extent of the US economic growth?

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: USA Today  Read full article

 

Equities:  US investors have been willing to pay a large premium for rising, high-quality profits this year.

Source: Citi Private Bank

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds continued to see inflows last week, led by long-bitcoin products.

Source: CoinShares
Source: CoinShares

 

Rates: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on rapid-fire Fed rate cuts next year. Too much enthusiasm?

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read full article

 

The Eurozone: Amid an already faltering economy, Germany’s ‘debt brake’ may pose a significant additional obstacle to economic growth, intensifying existing headwinds.

Source: Gavekal Research
Source: @bpolitics  Read full article

 

Energy: Uranium prices are surging.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Allocation of defense spending by category:

Source: OECD  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the downside with US factory activity now contracting for thirteen consecutive months.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Equities: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Investors are nervous about the small-cap outperformance. The Russell 2000 implied volatility index (RVX) has not been following VIX lower.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The Eurozone: Recent Eurozone inflation figures may already be below the ECB’s target of 2%, which could raise the odds of an ECB rate cut as soon as Q1, according to Deutsche Bank.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Emerging Markets: Chile’s manufacturing output exhibited a large upside surprise.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: Rate cuts are accelerating, driven by EM central banks.

Source: Bank of America Institute 

 

Food for Thought: Median age by state:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income edged higher in October.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Companies have been lowering their expectations for price gains.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The unemployment rate declined in October, but the jobs-to-applicants ratio edged higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in “greed” territory.

Source: Alternative.me

 

Commodities: Asian rice futures have been surging.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets

 

Equities: The Dow hit the highest level since early 2022 and is now significantly overbought.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Americans’ tipping habits:

Source: Pew Research Center

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The November Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve showed that inflation concerns continue to moderate.

Source: Oxford Economics
Source: MarketWatch  Read full article

 

Equities: Hedge funds have tilted their exposure toward momentum stocks.

Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook

 

The Eurozone: With inflation falling, the market is pricing in faster ECB rate cuts (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Dry bulk shipping costs (for cargo such as iron ore) have been surging due to the Panama Canal delays. The bottleneck is most acute for capesize vessels.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: FreightWaves  Read full article
Source: FreightWaves  Read full article

 

Global Developments: Global bond markets are having a good month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Retail sales declined sharply.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Traffic fatalities during holidays:

Source: Statista

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Markets are pricing in more substantial Fed rate cuts for 2024 (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics

 

Japan: JGB yields are following Treasuries lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Chicago milk futures are under pressure.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: US natural gas futures continue to tumble.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Long-only funds have been reducing their beta to the market.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: A faster way to board an airplane:

Source: @WSJ

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Economists upgraded their forecasts for next year’s GDP growth, with no recession expected over the next few quarters.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

US financial conditions eased sharply this month, with the largest monthly decline in Goldman’s indicator in recent decades.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Roughly 83% of the total BTC circulating supply is held in profit, similar to the 2021 bull market highs.

Source: Glassnode  Read full article

 

Equities: Here are sector earnings growth expectations for 2024.

Source: Citi Private Bank

 

32% of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks this year, with underperformance driven by underallocation to tech megacaps.

Source: Goldman Sachs @MikeZaccardi

 

Commodities: Iron ore prices extended losses as Beijing jawbones the commodity lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: India’s fiscal deficit is on a downward trend.

Source: Barclays Research

 

Food for Thought: Members of Congress not seeking re-election:

Source: @axios  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 27th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The revised inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan highlight consumers’ concerns about inflation resurgence.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The United Kingdom: The CBI report showed deteriorating industrial goods demand.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: After last year’s plateau, South Korea’s household debt is reaching record highs.

Source: @economics

 

Commodities: Gold is trading above $2,000, widening its divergence with US real yields (chart shows inverted 10-year TIPS yield).

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Energy: Brent crude is back below $70/bbl.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment indicator:

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Food for Thought: Ultra-processed foods:

Source: BMJ

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s NBOS index, which monitors activity among the region’s services companies, continues to reflect subdued performance.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

 

The United Kingdom: The official measure of home prices has been remarkably resilient.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

China: The stock market bounce wasn’t sustained.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Binance’s CEO stepped down.

Source: @WSJ

 

Commodities: Cocoa prices continue to hit multi-decade highs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Goldman expects share buybacks to drive net equity demand next year.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook

 

Food for Thought: Median student debt by college major:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – November 21st, 2023

Greetings,

 

Equities: Main US stock market indices are now in overbought territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: When will the Treasury curve inversion end? Here is a forecast from BofA.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

 

The United States: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) has recorded its 19th consecutive monthly decline.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Risk premia in equities and corporate bonds remain resilient despite softer economic conditions.

Source: ECB
Source: ECB

 

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies are surging (the second panel shows the Taiwan dollar).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: The markets cheered the defeat of the Peronist government in Argentina’s presidential election.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Thanksgiving dinner inflation:

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.