Greetings, United States: US consumers now view the buying conditions for houses as worst in years, as prices surge (2 charts). Europe: French business bankruptcies tumbled since the start of the pandemic (due to state aid), even as debt levels surged. Energy: Will underinvestment in oil extraction exacerbate the market deficit …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2021
Greetings, United Kingdom: Trade with the EU continues to improve: Eurozone: Separately, superforecasters once again expect CDU/CSU to remain in power after the next election. China: Foreign currency deposits in Chinese commercial banks have surged over the past year. By increasing the reserve requirements on foreign exchange deposits, the central bank forces commercial banks …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 11th, 2021
Greetings, United States: On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI climbed by most in years. However, without the COVID-sensitive items (including the auto manufacturing disruptions) and the base effect, the core inflation remains relatively stable. As far as the markets are concerned, this supports the Fed’s “transient” inflation narrative. Here are the “COVID-sensitive” …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2021
Greetings, United States: When will the emergency programs expire? Eurozone: Positive economic surprises relative to the US have benefited EUR/USD over the past year. Japan: Producer price gains surprised to the upside, driven by energy and industrial commodities. Commodities: Industrial metal prices appear to be overbought. Equities: Valuation multiples tend …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 9th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The labor market continues to tighten, with the latest job openings indicators hitting record highs (well above consensus forecasts). Note that both the absolute number and the openings rate have been surging. United Kingdom: Permanent staff hiring has accelerated. Asia-Pacific: This chart shows vaccination trends in select countries. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 8th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The moratorium on student debt payments ends in October. Many borrowers have stopped paying and are hoping for debt forgiveness. Absent such a policy change, we are likely to see delinquencies climbing back to pre-COVID highs and perhaps even higher. China: Evergrande, China’s most indebted property developer, is trying to …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 7th, 2021
Greetings, Canada: The BoC has funded nearly the entire budget deficit. Europe: About a third of European bank credit is exposed to potential losses as a result of climate change. China: Credit spreads have tightened. Equities: Stocks most correlated with Treasuries (those that expect substantial earnings growth far in the future) …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 4th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Initial jobless claims continue to trend lower. Continuing claims are moving down as well, but there are still more than 15 million Americans receiving unemployment benefits. However, according to Oxford Economics, “roughly 4.1 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits over the coming month” (an income cliff). Eurozone: …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 3rd, 2021
Greetings, United States: The Fed’s Beige Book report shows rapidly improving economic conditions (2 charts). United Kingdom: UK imports have shifted toward China since 2018. China: Fertility rate: Beijing’s response to deteriorating demographics: Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin is correlated to market sentiment (it’s a risk asset, not a safe-haven asset): Energy: …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 2nd, 2021
Greetings, United States: Economists were surprised by the intensity of the pandemic recovery price gains. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index hit a record high. A majority of inflation gains in the April CPI report came from flexible prices, not sticky prices, which tend to move more slowly. Canada: Unlike the US, Canada did not …
