Greetings, The United States: Economists expect slower US growth this year, but not a recession. According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast for the 2019 full-year GDP growth is 2.4%, which may be a bit optimistic. The Eurozone: Economists will be downgrading Germany’s GDP growth forecasts further Equities: This chart shows cumulative tech …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Next, we have the World Economics SMI for March. This index measures business activity at the national level. It shows confidence rebounding, but caution around hiring persists. The Eurozone: Spain’s trade deficit is rising (partially due to strong domestic demand). Equities: The chart below shows US semiconductor manufacturers’ …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The FOMC downgraded its forecasts for the GDP growth and the headline inflation (PCE). The Committee left the core (ex. food & energy) inflation projections unchanged. The Eurozone: This chart shows the divergence in industrial production growth. Equities: Share buyback activity appears to be fading. China: China’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The HPS-CS sentiment index shows households becoming concerned about personal finances. The Eurozone: While the Eurozone’s GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US. Equities: US equities have significantly outperformed global stocks in recent years (in part because of higher tech …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Tax refunds continue to lag last year’s trend. The Eurozone: Here are the drivers of the Eurozone’s slowdown in exports Equities: This year’s rally was not accompanied by cyclicals’ outperformance. China: China’s weakening demand weighs on Japan’s exports. Global Developments: Airfreight activity in Europe and Asia is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US hotel occupancy rates are showing some weakness recently. The Eurozone: Non-performing loan percentages in the Eurozone periphery have been declining. Equities: Margin debt as a percentage of the NYSE market cap is at the lowest level since 2014. China: China’s prime-age population has peaked. Food for Thought: Lebanon’s offshore exploration …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US temp employment has been contracting in recent months. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s private sector remains heavily reliant on banks for funding (as opposed to capital markets). Equities: This chart shows the recent flows in sector ETFs. China: Here is how the PBoC responded to the housing market …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: US companies have cut back on foreign investment. The Eurozone: Over the long term, inflation is likely to keep slowing as the population ages. Equities: Banks’ trading revenues are expected to be weak this quarter. China: Shadow finance continues to shrink. Global Developments: Is there more …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Small business sentiment eased this year. The Eurozone: The ECB’s liftoff expectations have been pushed further out. The second chart below shows a forecast for the central bank’s policy rates (from Pictet Wealth Management). Equities: Will margin growth deteriorate over the next couple of years? China: Goldman’s market-implied …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The tax-driven corporate earnings repatriation (which boosted last year’s share buybacks) is over. The Eurozone: French, Italian, and Spanish industrial production rebounded in January, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Equities: VIX futures’ beta to the S&P 500 has been unusually low. China: Large banks have been slashing their lending to …
