Greetings, The United States: US consumers have shifted spending from goods to experiences. More than half of student loan borrowers made no progress in paying down their student debt since 2019. Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s stocks could come under further pressure as semiconductor demand slumps. In China, earnings have dropped considerably, on par …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Looking at inflation, lower gasoline prices and, to a lesser extent, food prices sent inflation expectations sharply lower. While this is an important consideration for the Fed, it’s unlikely to deter the central bank from continuing with its tightening policy. The US dollar strength has been putting downward pressure on …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 8th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The employment report topped expectations, with over half a million new payrolls created in July. This does not look like a recession. Rate hike expectations surged in response to the employment report. Here is the probability of a 75 bps hike in September. Canada: The trade surplus hit a …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 5th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, shelter inflation in the US has been surprising to the upside. The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps as it forecasts a prolonged recession. The Eurozone: French nuclear power output hit a multi-year low. This could not have come at a worse time. Equities: Responses …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 4th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The July ISM Services PMI topped expectations. The report is not signaling a recession. It should be noted that different indicators are providing mixed signals for the trajectory of the economy. The high-yield bond market suggests that the US will avoid a recession. Equities: A majority of stocks are …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 3rd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The real money supply (M2) is down sharply on a year-over-year basis. This trend does not bode well for GDP growth. The Eurozone: Electricity prices continue to hit record highs. Asia–Pacific: Japanese equities look attractive relative to the US. Emerging Markets: Producer prices are surging in South …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 2nd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, construction spending unexpectedly declined in June, driven by weakness in residential investment. Looking at the yield curve, the 10-year – 3-month portion is about to invert. Some economists prefer this metric as a leading indicator of economic activity. The Eurozone: The updated PMI report showed factory activity …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Consumer spending growth is below the pre-COVID trend but is not crashing. Households continue to spend despite deteriorating sentiment. Asia-Pacific: Taiwanese and South Korean equity markets are pricing in a deep slump in global chip sales. China: US-listed Chinese shares are struggling. Cryptocurrency: July was a strong month for cryptos, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 29th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The second-quarter GDP report surprised to the downside, with the US entering a technical recession. The nominal GDP continues to surge, but inflation is taking a toll. Market expectations for the year-end fed funds rate dipped further. Japan: The yen is rebounding as this chart shows the US dollar is …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 28th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: As expected, the Fed raised rates by 75 bps. However, the market interpreted Powell’s comments as being a bit on the dovish side, with rising hope that economic slowdown will force the Fed to pause rate hikes after September’s meeting. Inflation expectations jumped in response to the supposedly “friendlier” Federal …