Greetings, The United States: When the Fed preemptively cut rates in the 1990s (as it is expected to do this year), the manufacturing sector was in much worse shape than it is now. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer sentiment continues to soften. Equities: Equity fund outflows are near record levels. Credit: Leveraged loans …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the CPI trajectory for each business cycle since 1879. The Eurozone: According to Natixis, “banks have hardly sold assets (bonds) to the ECB, and therefore, most of the ECB’s [net] asset purchases have been from non-bank economic agents, which fuelled money creation.” Energy: Oil supply/demand balance will …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here, we have the case for and against rate cuts by the Fed (see chart below). – The case for: • Manufacturing recession • Tumbling inflation expectations • The inverted yield curve • A strong US dollar • Global economic uncertainty – The case against: • The stock market near records …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Americans are increasingly confident in their ability to find work if they lose a job today. The Eurozone: The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has been grinding higher. Equities: Tariffs remain a major topic on corporate earnings calls. Credit: This chart shows the issuance of asset-backed securities …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Unless Congress lifts the debt ceiling, analysts expect the US Treasury to run out of cash in October The Eurozone:The Greek sovereign credit default swap spread tightened to multi-year lows. The 2015 spike shows the moment when Greece was staring down the Grexit abyss. Equities: Here are four …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Treasury market is pricing in low odds that the US-China trade tensions will be resolved at the G20 meeting. The Eurozone: Excluding inventory adjustments, the euro-area GDP growth has been quite strong. Equities: Will we see an earnings recession for the S&P 500? Global Developments: High-yield …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Falling residential investment has been a drag on the GDP growth. Will we see a reversal in this trend? The Eurozone: This chart shows the sharp divergence between private and public employment trends in France. Equities: Will the US CapEx slowdown spread to tech? Credit: High-yield bonds …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent weakness in manufacturing drag down service-sector activity? The Eurozone: Eurozone-based companies’ earnings growth is stalling out. Equities: BMO’s valuation index suggests that US stocks are fairly valued. Global Developments: Short-term rate differentials point to downside risks for the US dollar. Food for Thought: US …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 11th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The risk of a recession in the near-term, while still relatively low, has risen in recent months. • The NY Fed’s and the Cleveland Fed’s recession risk models: The Eurozone: Did the Eurozone’s GDP growth stall this quarter? Equities: US firms better show robust earnings in the coming quarters …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The probability of a rate cut next month blasted past 80% after the employment report. Is the market too dovish? Is the Fed truly prepared to cut rates in July? The Eurozone: Who owns Germany’s stocks? Equities: Companies with significant sales outside of the US are expected to …
