Greetings, The United States: Recent trends in railcar loadings point to softer manufacturing production and trade. The Eurozone: Bets on lower Bund yields (blue) remain elevated. Still a crowded trade? China: Home price appreciation remains robust. Global Developments: Global stock valuations don’t look excessive (relative to the past ten years). Food …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Has wage growth peaked? The Eurozone: French industrial employment is finally growing. China: ‘Shadow banking’ credit continues to shrink as Beijing cracks down. Rates: This diagram illustrates the Fed’s pre- and post-crisis approach to managing the fed funds rate. Food for Thought: Concerns about retirement among …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 10th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Despite US debt levels at multi-decade highs (as % of the GDP), the Federal government continues to enjoy relatively low interest rates (for now). The Eurozone: The market continues to price in ECB rate cuts this year. China: Housing inventory-to-sales ratio continues to trend lower. Global Developments: Here are …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The NY Fed’s recession probability estimate (based on the yield curve) keeps climbing (see story). The Eurozone: Japanese investors bought a record amount of Spanish bonds in May. Emerging Markets: This chart shows the year-to-date performance of EM equities. Global Developments: Capital goods imports have stalled. Food …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 3rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Small business hiring continues to slow, but wage growth remains robust. The Eurozone: Will the RBA’s dovish stance ultimately push the Australian dollar lower? China: Large company sentiment is weakening. Global Developments: Below is the 12-month change in the manufacturing PMI (business activity) by country. Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 2nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Business and consumer surveys have diverged. The Eurozone: German retail sales fell in May (second decline in a row). China: China’s overnight rates dipped below 1% (lowest in a decade). The first chart shows the 1-day repo rate (secured financing), and the second chart is the overnight SHIBOR. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Corporate confidence has deteriorated. Here is the Vistage CEO Confidence Index. The Eurozone: The euro-area inflation remains relatively soft, which is boosting the probability of the ECB implementing further easing measures. China: China’s financial conditions have been improving this year. Will the GDP follow? Emerging Markets: Real money …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 28th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Corporate confidence continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The sharp drop-off in demand from the UK is a headwind for the Eurozone’s economy. China: Spreads have widened for lower-rated bank certificates of deposit. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s trade balance surprised to the upside, with the non-oil component rising sharply …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 27th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s economic data momentum has been recovering this year. Commodities: Here is what’s driving steel demand in China. The second chart below shows the steel rebar futures in Shanghai. Global Developments: Below is the G10 …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) continues to deteriorate. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s real forward rates (5-year rate, 5-year forward) are now at the lowest level since 2015. Equities: Here are some comments on high-beta stocks from Artisan Partners. Rates: The Fed is expected to buy a …
