Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, which was a bit softer than the market was expecting. These inflation figures are unlikely to deter the Fed from cutting rates again this month (the market is assigning a 78% probability that it will do so). Here are the monthly …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Some economists are concerned that eroding corporate profit margins can push the US into recession. Asia-Pacific: Japanese companies do not have the leverage issue seen in much of the developed world. China: The renminbi has been whipsawed by trade-related news. Equities: US equities tend to perform well during …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Lower interest rates have been helpful for consumption. Interest-sensitive durable goods (products that do not wear out in a short time like food) are having a larger contribution to US consumer spending. The United Kingdom: The UK’s productivity has been lagging. The Eurozone: Germany’s industrial production appears to …
Greetings, The United States: Auto loan delinquencies have been grinding higher in recent years (see definition of indirect loans). The United Kingdom: The nation’s farmers are expected to have their biggest harvest since 2015. There is pressure to sell as much as possible ahead of Brexit. The Eurozone: Sentix investor sentiment hit …
Greetings, The United States: Construction industry labor conditions have been much tighter compared to previous cycles. Labor shortages have been contributing to slower growth for housing starts. Eurozone: Economists continue to warn about German manufacturing job cuts ahead. Asian Pacific: Japan’s government pension investment fund (GPIF) continues to increase its holdings of …
Greetings, The United States: The US and global economic growth rates are highly correlated. United Kingdom: Here is a visual comparison of Boris Johnson’s vs. Theresa May’s Brexit plans. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s service sector continues to expand. Commodities: Steel scrap prices keep sinking as China stops imports. Global Developments: Across …
Greetings, The United States: Trade policy uncertainty has reached new highs. United Kingdom: The UK stock market took the biggest one-day hit in years. While the decline was part of the global selloff, some investors were also unnerved by the possibility of an administrative border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great …
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the September ISM manufacturing PMI report, which was below economists’ forecasts. US factory activity is rapidly shrinking (PMI below 50). Eurozone: The Eurozone’s financial conditions have been easing. Does this trend signal a bottom in factory activity? Europe: Switzerland’s economy appears to be in recession. …
Greetings, The United States: Upper-income households are becoming increasingly cautious. United Kingdom: UK households’ cash holdings are outpacing spending. A resolution of the Brexit impasse could unleash consumption. Europe: Is Germany pulling Switzerland into recession? Asia-Pacific: Here’s a look at the proportion of Australian homes that sold for less than the …
Greetings, The United States: The service sector is expected to support economic growth in the near-term. United Kingdom: UK equities are close to their relative valuation lows versus the rest of the world since the early 1990s. The Eurozone: Despite negative interest rates, savings in the Eurozone continue to climb. Emerging …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 30th, 2019”
