Greetings, The United States: Here is an updated Fed chair betting-markets probability table. Will the next Fed chair focus on the super-easy financial conditions in the US as a potential risk to the financial system? Bloomberg’s index is now at the “easiest” level on record. The Eurozone: As Spain moves to take control of the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley is suggesting that slower declines in the velocity of money are pointing to higher inflation ahead. Perhaps. If the trend is due to a stronger GDP growth, higher inflation is indeed likely. However, the velocity of money trend has eased because the expansion in the money supply is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 20th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers still have not recovered from the 2008 economic shock. Discretionary service spending is improving much slower than during the previous cycles. The Eurozone: Analysts continue to suggest that the euro is overvalued. China: China’s rising budget deficit (including state-owned enterprises) points to increased fiscal stimulus in recent …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: According to Gallup, US economic confidence remains elevated but has come off the highs. Who in the US is building homes and why? Credit: Part of the reason investors have been comfortable with sub-investment grade debt recently is the decline in the number of “stressed” credits. Rates: Trading …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 17th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: US retail sales beat consensus, but the latest monthly increase was driven by the hurricanes (damaged/flooded car replacements and higher spending on gasoline). On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth remains stable (shown here ex. gasoline spending). Credit: US banks continue to report a rise in consumer loan delinquncies. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 16th, 2017”
Greetings, Global developments: Global earnings growth has been relatively synchronized. The United States: The hurricanes’ impact on the US initial unemployment claims has not been as bad as some had feared. Europe: The Eurozone industrial production continues to improve, exceeding economists’ forecasts. China: The 10yr government bond yield is hovering just below …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 13th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: Puerto Rico’s general obligation debt took another leg down. Here are the updated Moody’s ratings for each state’s general obligation debt. Europe: The Catalonia jitters had generated record levels of trading in Spanish government bonds. But the concerns appear to be easing now as the bond curve flattens (investors roll into longer …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: Here is the covenant-light share of the US leveraged loan market. Japan: The Nikkei continues to climb. The Eurozone: Investors have taken quite a bit of money out of the largest Spanish equity ETF. The United States: Nomura sees the GOP succeeding in its efforts to cut US personal taxes by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: This chart shows thirty years of securitized products outstanding (excluding agency MBS). Japan: Polls show that there are still quite a few undecided voters, as the snap election approaches. The Eurozone: Here is the Greek debt maturity wall. 2019 will be an interesting year. The United States: Hurricanes tend to have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 10th, 2017”
Greetings, Credit: The “quality” of the HY corporate debt market (based on the ratings composition) has improved since the financial crisis. Investment-grade debt quality, however, has deteriorated. Japan: Analysts say that Japanese shares look attractive. But some investors a nervous, given the BoJ’s deep involvement in the market. Alternatives: Private equity investors …
