The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Market expectations for the Fed’s policy rate trajectory have moved up substantially since the last projections were published in December. Will the Fed’s new dot plot shift higher?

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Underlying inflation measures remain sticky, which could delay rate cuts.

Source: MRB Partners

 

The Eurozone: Here are the consensus estimates for GDP and inflation over time in the Eurozone and the US.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

China: Industrial output surprised to the upside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: India’s exports jumped last month.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Indian Express  Read full article

 

Equities: Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: Chip design and fabrication costs:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Even with the rise in WARN notices, initial jobless claims remained close to multi-year lows last week, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Japanese investors have been dumping foreign stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto fund inflows hit a record high.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: Iron ore futures continue to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: WTI crude climbed above $80/bbl.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equity fund inflows have been exceptionally strong.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Patent applications:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 13th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: This chart outlines the components contributing to the monthly changes in core CPI.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Asia-Pacific: Asset managers have been boosting their bets against the Aussie dollar.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: India’s bond yields are moving lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Retail traders are not driving the Bitcoin rally.

Source: @RenMacLLC

 

Commodities: Gold performs well in a rate-cutting cycle.

Source: Barclays Research; @WallStJesus

 

Equities: Which sectors and equity factors contributed to market gains on the day the core CPI exceeded expectations?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Most widely spoken languages vs. the most frequently used languages online:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Companies report that labor shortages are easing.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Europe: Dutch manufacturing production reversed much of the December surge, which was driven by one-off items.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The stock rally has been fading amid growing expectations for the BoJ tightening policy this spring.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin blasted past $70k, hitting a record high.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment index is in “stretched” territory.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

S&P 500 earnings have outgrown nominal GDP by a large margin over the past decade (partially reflecting US companies’ global operations).

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Food for Thought: Shift in political affiliation among US men aged 18-29:

Source: American Storylines  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: February’s job gains exceeded expectations, yet the underlying trends in the employment report indicate a softening labor market.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The employment PMI signals a contraction in permanent placements and temp agency billings.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: The PPI remains in negative territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: There is an active market for Bitcoin call options with strikes near $100k.

Source: @crypto

 

Commodities: Traders are boosting their bets on hog futures.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: ETFs that use options strategies have become very popular.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Food for Thought: Smartphone shipments:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% following Chair Powell’s hinting that the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in the deceleration of inflation trends.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

China: Rail travel picked up relative to prior years during the recent holiday season.

Source: TS Lombard

 

Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes in bitcoin and meme tokens surged last week. (2 charts)

Source: @KaikoData
Source: @KaikoData

 

Energy: US LNG export capacity is expected to nearly double over the next few years.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Equities: The S&P 500 12-month forward P/E ratio is back above 21x.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Tighter liquidity will boost short-term rate volatility

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: UFO hotspots:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2024

Greetings,

 

Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s assets bounced after the news of a capital injection.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ  Read full article

 

Rates: The copper-to-gold ratio suggests that Treasury yields should be lower.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Equities: While share buyback activity remains well below the levels seen last year when excluding Chevron’s massive buyback from the previous year’s data, the current figures align more closely with last year’s trend.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Global Developments: The dollar has been selling off, with the trade-weighted index back at its 50-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The United States: Here is the Beveridge curve, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s trade surplus surged to new highs as exports jumped.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

China: So far, raw material prices have not confirmed the rebound in Chinese equities.

Source: BCA Research

 

Food for Thought: Projected job growth for top 10 occupations:

Source: Oxford Economics

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 6th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Services PMI eased in February, signifying a deceleration in growth.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Outlook among UK service firms is increasingly upbeat.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: There has been an uptick in narrow money supply in January.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Commodities: Steel prices in China have been rolling over.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Canada’s oil exports are expected to surge following the expansion of the Trans-Mountain pipeline.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Equities: The market saw a healthy pullback on Tuesday as tech shares sold off.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Working days lost to health conditions:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 


Edited by Josh  Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: A tighter labor market often acts as a catalyst for enhancing productivity levels.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

The Eurozone: Here is a look at the ECB monetary policy transmission relative to previous hiking cycles.

Source: ECB  Read full article

 

China: Shares are trading at deep discounts to global peers.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Allocators are not rushing into China, preferring India and Japan instead.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Cryptocurrency: Memecoins have been surging as speculative fervor grips the market. This brings back memories of Cabbage Patch Kids, Furbys, Pokemon Cards, and Beanie Babies.

Source: CoinGecko

 

Commodities: Gold is diverging from gold miners.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Credit: New York Community Bancorp assets are getting hit across the capital structure.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Gaming revenues (US and global):

Source: @WSJ  Read full article
Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 4th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: US construction spending declined for the first time in 13 months in January.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Europe: European stocks have been climbing despite higher bond yields.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.; h/t @NoorAlAli

 

China: Economists continue to downgrade their forecasts for China’s inflation this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ETFs’ AUM is surging.

Source: @business  Read full article
Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Equities: Positioning has been improving.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s stock and bonds were hammered again on Friday.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: WFH is here to stay:

Source: @I_Am_NickBloom, @ESRC  Read full article  Further reading

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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