The Daily Shot Brief – May 26th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Corporate profits declined.

Source: Wells Fargo Securities

 

The Chicago Fed’s national activity index rebounded last month.

Source: @ChicagoFed, @dailychartbook

 

The United Kingdom: UK trade openness has been lagging.

Source: UK in a Changing Europe

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s revised Q1 GDP puts the country into technical recession.

Source: CNBC

 

Cryptocurrency: It has been a difficult month for cryptos, with bitcoin underperforming other main tokens.

Source: FinViz

 

Equities: Hedge funds have been boosting their exposure to tech mega-caps (based on GS prime brokerage data).

Source: Goldman Sachs; @carlquintanilla

 

Food for Thought: Who intends to buy an EV?

Source: @CivicScience

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 25th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The implied terminal rate is back above 5.25% as the FOMC appears divided on future interest rate hikes.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Housing inventories have been tightening across price tiers.

Source: AEI Housing Center

 

Equities: Nvidia shares surged on expected AI chip demand

Source: CNBC  Read full article
Source: barchart.com

 

The United Kingdom: Given higher-than-expected inflation, the BoE is pressured to keep raising rates.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is now in the red year-to-date.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Copper futures are testing the uptrend support.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are views on prohibiting tobacco or menthol cigarettes:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Fewer companies are boosting wages.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Manufacturing input prices are now falling.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: China doesn’t have enough white-collar jobs to accommodate the surge in college graduates.

Source: @yifanxie, @WSJ

 

Commodities: Investors increased their bullish bets on platinum futures while shying away from palladium.

Source: @ANZ_Research

 

Equities: Open interest in ETF put options is at multi-year highs.

Source: @Marlin_Capital, @dailychartbook

 

Credit: Leveraged loan funds continue to see outflows.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: Religious affiliations of US adults and Congress members:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Manufacturing and housing conditions are starting to improve, which could stall a recession.

Source: MRB Partners

 

Credit: REITs’ spread between Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is crashing, which signals declining profitability and increased delinquency rates.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

The Eurozone: Political developments in Greece could result in a debt rating upgrade this year (to investment grade). Below are Green bank stocks.

Source: @lineoyamada, @markets  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: The May PMI report showed Japan’s business activity accelerating this month, with services growth surging.

Source: S&P Global PMI

 

China: Residential sales are still above the underlying demand.

Source: BCA Research

 

Global Developments: Are markets too optimistic about slowing inflation?

Source: IMF

 

Food for Thought: Here are views on using AI to hire and track employees:

Source: Pew Research Center  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Wholesale used vehicle prices were lower again this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Fed officials are indicating that there will be no rate increase in June. Market expectations got repriced on Friday in response to Fed signals.

Source: @catarinasaraiva, @RichMiller28, @economics  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equity fund flows have flattened out. Outflows next?

Source: BofA Global Research

 

The Eurozone: The DAX hit a record high last week.

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

China:  Beijing indicated it was unhappy about the renminbi’s sharp decline. The currency jumped on Friday but is retreating again today.

Source: @markets  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: US rig count is now down on a year-over-year basis.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the duration of MLB games:

Source: semafor

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 19th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Fewer small businesses plan to increase headcount.

Source: @WSJ

 

 

The United Kingdom: London’s economy has been outperforming.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Emerging Markets: Policy easing in Vietnam could fuel economic recovery and possibly benefit stocks.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Commodities: US cattle futures are surging.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Financial Post

 

Equities: Top five stocks contributed more than 80% of the S&P 500 gains this year.

Source: Merrill Lynch

 

Food for Thought: What do college seniors see as the most important benefit in their first job?

Source: Quality Logo Products

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Housing starts are almost 23% below last year’s levels in April, but residential construction has been stabilizing.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @gutavasaraiva, @economics  Read full article

 

If the impasse over the debt ceiling is resolved, the possibility of a rate hike in June cannot be ruled out.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: The 5-year breakeven inflation expectations index is now at pre-COVID highs. Will the current level continue to act as support?

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

 

Equities: Regional banks surged on Wednesday.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Japan: Foreigners have been jumping into Japanese equities, boosting prices.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ  Read full article

 

Canada: A BoC rate hike this summer looks increasingly likely.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are US box office sales:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: April’s core retail sales topped expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ

 

The United Kingdom: Wage growth is still elevated.

Source: Arcano Economics

 

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s Q1 wage growth was slightly below forecasts but still elevated.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @Swatisays, @economics

 

China: New home prices increased again last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The tech mega-cap surge has been remarkable.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, the share of Americans who identify as LGBT:

Source: Statista

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker declined sharply in April.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Sweden’s inflation has finally peaked.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @nicrolander, @economics  Read full article

 

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s TOPIX hit a multi-decade high.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @winnieuu0316, @aya_wagatsuma, @markets  Read full article

 

China: Industrial production surprised to the downside.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Retail sales were also softer than expected.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

Equities: US and European equities no longer offer an attractive yield compared to credit.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Positive earnings surprises haven’t been met with a lot of enthusiasm.

Source: @FactSet  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the number of US passports issued over the last 30 years:

Source: @chartrdaily

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Falling grocery prices may help ease inflation expectations in the months ahead.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Buying conditions for homes are near multi-year lows.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Greek economic activity is rebounding.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Emerging Markets: The lira continues to hit new lows despite the government’s pre-election interventions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The current US profit recession is expected to be the longest since 2016.

Source: @farahesque, @business

 

Rates: Treasury futures positioning gap between asset managers and hedge funds is at a multi-year high.

Source: @GarfieldR1966, @markets

 

Food for Thought: SVB’s deposits over time:

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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