Greetings, United States: Large US bankruptcy filings spiked in recent weeks (J.C. Penney, J. Crew, Stage Stores, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, Tuesday Morning, Le Pain Quotidien, etc.) Europe: US banks have been gaining market share across Europe. Energy: US crude oil production continues to decline. Yet, US oil inventories hit a multi-year …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 28th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications for house purchase have fully recovered, hitting a multi-year high. Europe: The EU announced a substantial fiscal measure targeting post-pandemic recovery. Who will benefit the most from the Next Generation EU fund of €750 billion? Commodities: Some analysts continue to predict a return of the commodities supercycle. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 27th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Consumer inflation expectations have diverged from the CPI as a result of higher grocery prices and disruptions in product availability. Eurozone: The economic contraction has been severe, … … and the recovery is expected to be painfully slow. China: The renminbi is weakening on concerns that Beijing will …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 26th, 2020
Greetings, Credit: US companies have issued a record amount of debt, in part to refinance commercial paper (two charts). Equities: Global equity flows have been declining over the past few years as investors pile into bonds. China: According to Goldman Sachs, Beijing’s fiscal stimulus has been more forceful than the headline figures suggest. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2020
Greetings, United States: Improvements in business conditions later this year may not result in stronger hiring. In addition, online search activity suggests that the weekly new claims number is no longer declining. Eurozone: Germans seem to support the French-German proposal to establish an EU relief fund (see story). Here is the support …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2020
Greetings, United States: Let’s start with the housing market. Mortgage applications to purchase a home are almost back to 2019 levels. It’s been an impressive rebound. Shares of homebuilders have been outperforming since the market lows. Eurozone: Consumer confidence bounced from the lows. Energy: Crude oil inventories are finally declining. The next …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. United States: Many small businesses have limited liquidity. Also, here is cash availability by sector. Eurozone: The ECB’s securities purchases allowed Spain and Italy to sell quite a bit of debt this year. Energy: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 19th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. Equities: Fund managers are still overweight in healthcare and cash/bonds. Credit: The Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility helped tighten short-term funding spreads. Energy: Here are some scenarios for global oil demand through the end of next …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published next Monday, May 25th. United States: Economists continue to downgrade their GDP growth forecasts. The latest consensus estimate suggests that during this quarter, the US economy will shrink by nearly a third. Europe: European equities’ underperformance vs. the US continues to …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Weekly initial unemployment claims remain in the millions. 24% of Americans who were employed in February applied for unemployment benefits since March 20th. Note that many did not qualify. Equities: US stock market outperformance vs. the rest of the world continues to widen (see reasons in #4 here). Credit: In …
