Greetings, The United States: The August SMI (Sales Manager Index) report from World Economics also shows strong business activity in August. Business confidence keeps improving, and hiring has accelerated. More firms are boosting sales prices. China: Growth in outward tourism has been a drag on China’s current account. The Eurozone: Here are …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: It’s important to keep in mind that consumer confidence measures in the US tend to be politically biased. The average trends, however, still tend to be very useful for economists. China: The nation’s housing supply has been tightening, boosting residential construction activity (which, in addition to anti-pollution regulation, raised …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the US housing inventory by owners’ age cohort. China: The central bank has been injecting liquidity using the medium-term lending facility (MLF) as it continues to ease. The Eurozone: The 2-year swap rate remains firmly in negative territory, with investors betting on the ECB maintaining …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US tariffs are expected to hit lower-income households disproportionally. China: China’s trade surplus continues to trend lower. The Eurozone: The Eurozone GDP tracker is off the highs but appears to have stabilized. The ECB is likely to proceed with the conclusion of its securities purchase program. Equity Markets: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Without the appropriate policy adjustments, the federal budget deficit could worsen dramatically over the next couple of decades. China: The PBoC has stabilized the renminbi (for now). Cryptocurrency: This chart shows the relative market capitalization of the largest cryptocurrencies. Equity Markets: Outflows from mutual funds have accelerated this …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The rising “quit” rate (voluntary resignations) points to higher wage growth ahead. China: While modest (relative to 2015/16), capital outflows continue. Cryptocurrency: Here is Bitcoin’s market cap vs. global funds’ AUM. Equity Markets: Investors continue to ignore the massive economic impact of looming US-China trade war escalation. …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: What were the drivers of the Commerce Department’s massive adjustment to the savings rate? A substantial part of it appears to be underreported asset income, which would suggest that the upward correction in savings is skewed toward wealthier Americans. China: Slower growth is showing up in softer producer price …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The spread between US households’ views on “current conditions” and “future expectations” is highly elevated. Are we approaching peak levels (usually a precursor to an economic slowdown)? China: Here is a comparison of China’s market capitalization with Japan. Cryptocurrency: How do cryptocurrency transaction speeds compare to other payment platforms? …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US job growth trends across the skills spectrum. China: Developers in China are highly leveraged. Global Developments: Manufacturing activity growth is slowing globally. Equity Markets: The tech sector’s earnings revisions have turned negative. Emerging Markets: Are EM fund flows stabilizing? Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Credit card rates in the US have sharply diverged from the prime rate. China: Here are the components of the official PMI measure (shown in yesterday’s Daily Shot). Rates: With the federal government’s appetite growing and the Fed trimming its balance sheet, private investors will need to absorb …
