The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

Energy: Options traders see crude oil risks skewed to the upside. Here is the Dec 2024 volatility smile.

Here is the 25-delta put/call skew.

Equities: Market breadth has improved dramatically over the past couple of months.

China: Demand for call options on China-focused equity ETFs (FXI shown below) has been surging.

The United Kingdom: The pound has been gaining against the euro due to faster ECB rate cut expectations.

Emerging Markets: Economists have been downgrading their forecasts for Mexico’s GDP growth this year as exports soften.

Food for Thought: Impact of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut on financial sentiment by household income:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Job openings increased again in August, topping expectations.

Canada: Consumer confidence continues to climb.

China: Hong Kong-listed shares continue to surge.

Commodities: The October-November LME aluminum spread continues to widen.

Equities: Nondealer positioning in US equity futures has been surging.

Food for Thought: Longest-living US presidents:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Japan: Lower front-end Treasury yields would likely weigh on USD/JPY, more so than other currencies.

The United States: Here is a look at the distribution of mortgage rates for outstanding loans.

China: Stocks continue to surge and are now overbought.

But the rally could continue because it’s coming off very depressed levels, especially relative to US stocks.

Emerging Markets: Thailand’s exports remain at record highs for this time of the year.

Rates: Let’s begin with some attribution data for Treasury yields (August and Q3).

Food for Thought: Helene’s projected financial impact among the most expensive US storms:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United Kingdom: The September CBI report showed a rebound in retail sales.

Energy: The probability of another tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days increased from 40% to 50%.

Japan: Traders continue to boost their bets on the yen.

China: A soft September manufacturing PMI report from S&P Global underscores the need for monetary stimulus.

Commodities: Iron ore continues to surge.

Global Developments: Monetary easing accelerated in September.

Food for Thought: Growth in religious unaffiliation across US age groups from 2013 to 2023:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims show no signs of increasing layoffs, suggesting companies are in a holding pattern-hiring less but not resorting to layoffs either.

The Eurozone: The Spain/France 10-year yield spread turned negative for the first time since 2007 (2 charts).

China: Stocks continue to surge.

Cryptocurrency: Traditional assets have experienced higher-than-usual volatility compared to Bitcoin over the past year.

Equities: The S&P 500 hit its 42nd record high of 2024 and is now up almost 34% year-over-year.

Rates: Treasury funds are seeing outflows.

Food for Thought: Countries with the highest median wealth per capita:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The 30-year mortgage rate has fallen for eight consecutive weeks.

China: China’s stocks continue to surge.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s economic activity jumped in July.

Energy: Brent crude held resistance at $75/bbl, falling sharply on news from Libya and Saudi Arabia.

Equities: Small-cap fundamentals are yet to recover.

Europe: Sweden’s central bank eased policy again, lowering its projected rate path.

Food for Thought: Share of Americans who read or listened to books in 2023:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index surprised to the downside, reflecting growing concerns about the labor market.

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies are surging, boosted by China’s latest wave of monetary easing.

China: The PBoC implemented its largest rate cut in years on its one-year term lending facility rate as part of a broad-based package of monetary easing measures.

Equities: Shares of US companies with substantial exposure to China outperformed after the PBoC announced a broad package of monetary easing.

Rates: Here is a look at privately held Treasuries by maturity.

Food for Thought: The most unreliable airports in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

China: With investors significantly underweight in China’s equities, stocks surged in response to the new stimulus measures.

Asia-Pacific: The RBA maintained the current interest rates, and Governor Michele Bullock indicated that a rate hike was not actively deliberated, even though inflation continues to persist. Bond yields dropped.

The Eurozone: Total business activity contracted at the Eurozone level.

Equities: What are the drivers of the current rally? This chart is based on Bloomberg’s attribution model.

Credit: Small caps are facing a steeper debt maturity wall than large caps.

The United States: Around 45,000 dockworkers at major ports along the East and Gulf coasts are threatening to strike in October. A prolonged strike could lead to a spike in prices by disrupting supply chains.

Food for Thought: America’s favorite car brands by generation:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US financial conditions have eased sharply in recent weeks, with much of the September easing attributed to lower rates.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales strengthened further last month, topping expectations.

Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 23th, 2024”

Greetings,

The United States: Seasonally adjusted indices:

The United Kingdom: The pound hit its highest level since 2022.

Europe: Germany’s EV sales tumbled.

Cryptocurrency: There was a relatively minor spike in short liquidations as BTC rose above $60K.

Equities: Historically, the first Fed rate cut has been associated with corrections in the S&P 500, particularly within the first six months after a 50 bps cut, according to Fairlead Strategies

Credit: Investment-grade bond funds continue to see inflows.

Food for Thought: Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputer:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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