Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the US housing inventory by owners’ age cohort. China: The central bank has been injecting liquidity using the medium-term lending facility (MLF) as it continues to ease. The Eurozone: The 2-year swap rate remains firmly in negative territory, with investors betting on the ECB maintaining …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US tariffs are expected to hit lower-income households disproportionally. China: China’s trade surplus continues to trend lower. The Eurozone: The Eurozone GDP tracker is off the highs but appears to have stabilized. The ECB is likely to proceed with the conclusion of its securities purchase program. Equity Markets: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Without the appropriate policy adjustments, the federal budget deficit could worsen dramatically over the next couple of decades. China: The PBoC has stabilized the renminbi (for now). Cryptocurrency: This chart shows the relative market capitalization of the largest cryptocurrencies. Equity Markets: Outflows from mutual funds have accelerated this …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The rising “quit” rate (voluntary resignations) points to higher wage growth ahead. China: While modest (relative to 2015/16), capital outflows continue. Cryptocurrency: Here is Bitcoin’s market cap vs. global funds’ AUM. Equity Markets: Investors continue to ignore the massive economic impact of looming US-China trade war escalation. …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: What were the drivers of the Commerce Department’s massive adjustment to the savings rate? A substantial part of it appears to be underreported asset income, which would suggest that the upward correction in savings is skewed toward wealthier Americans. China: Slower growth is showing up in softer producer price …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The spread between US households’ views on “current conditions” and “future expectations” is highly elevated. Are we approaching peak levels (usually a precursor to an economic slowdown)? China: Here is a comparison of China’s market capitalization with Japan. Cryptocurrency: How do cryptocurrency transaction speeds compare to other payment platforms? …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US job growth trends across the skills spectrum. China: Developers in China are highly leveraged. Global Developments: Manufacturing activity growth is slowing globally. Equity Markets: The tech sector’s earnings revisions have turned negative. Emerging Markets: Are EM fund flows stabilizing? Food for Thought: …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Credit card rates in the US have sharply diverged from the prime rate. China: Here are the components of the official PMI measure (shown in yesterday’s Daily Shot). Rates: With the federal government’s appetite growing and the Fed trimming its balance sheet, private investors will need to absorb …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows what portion of the second-quarter GDP growth can be attributed to the federal government stimulus as well as the pre-tariffs export burst. Here are the key drivers of growth over the past few years. China: China’s offshore bond yields are still climbing. Rates: Here is …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: A significant portion of this year’s GDP growth is due to the federal government stimulus. But the party ends in 2020. The Eurozone: The ECB didn’t provide much new information regarding policy direction. Here are some updates. • The ECB balance sheet forecast from UBS: Average life of …
