Greetings, United States: The CPI report massively overshot market expectations. While these price gains are substantial, they are not that unusual from a historical perspective. We just haven’t seen such increases in recent years, especially in the core CPI. The probability of a rate hike next year rebounded, essentially offsetting last week’s lousy employment …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The job openings report provided further confirmation of the tightening labor market. Vacancies blew past market expectations. The Beveridge curve has turned up, suggesting that many unemployed workers are not ready to return. United Kingdom: GBP/USD has been sensitive to yield moves. Asia-Pacific: Will Australia lose its AAA rating …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2021
Greetings, Equities: Tech stocks have widened their underperformance, with the Nasdaq 100 losing over 4% in the last few days. Credit: Banks have started easing lending standards for business credit this year. Rates: Market-based inflation expectations keep grinding higher. However, the long end of the inflation swap curve remains relatively well …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 10th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Markets sees the weak employment report keeping the Fed on hold for longer. Perhaps taper is off the table this year? The futures-based probability of a 2022 rate hike declined sharply. Short-term Treasury yields dipped, and the US dollar slumped. China: The renminbi rose sharply in response to the soft …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the labor market. Initial jobless claims remain on a downward path. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits is also declining. United Kingdom: The updated April Markit Services PMI figure was even stronger than the earlier report, as Britain reopens. Emerging Markets: India’s COVID cases …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Price pressures in the service sector are expected to boost core consumer inflation (the core PCE is the Fed’s preferred metric). US inflation reports have been surprising to the upside. Eurozone: Evercore ISI forecasts a rebound in year-over-year real GDP growth of 4.2% in Q4. Cryptocurrencies: As the stock …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The jobs recovery has been lagging the economic rebound. A jump in Boomer retirements last year may exacerbate labor shortages in some sectors. Eurozone: Here is a look at the euro-area money markets. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin’s transaction speed is slowing while costs are rising (2 charts). Most G10 …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The April ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly pulled back from the highs. While factory activity remains exceptionally strong, there are signs that supply-chain bottlenecks are becoming a drag on production and employment. Europe: Just like in the US, European supply chains are strained (2 charts). Emerging Markets: Colombia’s finance minister …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 3rd, 2021
Greetings, United States: The updated April U. Michigan consumer sentiment index was even stronger than the prior report. Emerging Markets: India’s COVID cases exceeded 400,000 per day. Cryptocurrency: Ethereum broke above $3k. Here is the Etherium/Bitcoin ratio. Equities: How frequently did 95% of S&P 500 stocks close above their 200-day moving …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 30th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The first-quarter GDP report was roughly in line with expectations. • The economy has almost recovered. • Higher consumer spending (mostly on goods) drove much of the gains last quarter Eurozone: Germany’s unemployment unexpectedly increased. Europe: Next, we have some data on EU exports to China. China: We are …
