Greetings, The United States: Home sales should strengthen. The Eurozone: This fascinating chart compares the relative popularity of Italy’s populist parties with the 10-year Italian government bond spread. Equities: There has been quite a bit of hype about the possibility of an earnings recession. Is it overblown? Credit: These two charts show ABS and CMBS yearly …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States:Here is the trend in bankruptcies and foreclosures. The Eurozone: Here is the industrial production breakdown. Is the worst over for the Eurozone’s industrial output? Equities: Earnings recessions haven’t typically coincided with economic downturns in recent years. Credit: A weak CLO market has been a drag on leveraged loan performance. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Has the CBO underestimated the federal deficit in its latest forecasts? The Eurozone: This scatterplot shows industrial confidence vs. sensitivity to Chinese demand. Equities: This chart shows the latest earnings growth expectations for 2019. Credit: Leveraged finance default rates continue to drift lower. Energy: The WTI curve is still in contango while …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: In recent years, the US has been able to run substantial budget deficits without paying higher costs for lax fiscal policy. Is the “free lunch” over? The Eurozone: The ECB is defending its QE program, suggesting that it helped reduce inequality. Equities: Futures-based Fed rate hike expectations have diverged from the stock …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: After a relatively strong holiday shopping season, retail sales weakened sharply in January. Below is Morgan Stanley’s retail sales tracker. Emerging Markets: Investors pulled quite a bit of capital out of South Africa last year. The Eurozone: Has the Eurozone’s unemployment rate bottomed? Equities: The Fear & Greed index is rapidly …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: US farmers’ sentiment improved substantially in January amid hopes for a quick resolution in the trade war with China. China: Will we see an official rate cut from the PBoC? The Eurozone: The first-quarter euro-area GDP isn’t looking too good. Equities: After months of consecutive losses, long/short equity …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: US manufacturing growth continues to outperform China and the Eurozone. Is this divergence sustainable? China: Economic activity indicators point to deterioration that is not fully visible in the official figures. • Goldman’s indicator: • Barclays’ indicator: The Eurozone: Robust wage growth should boost the services CPI. Equities: Here is the ratio …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Small business sentiment has deteriorated. China: Below is the breakdown of fiscal revenues and expenditures. The Eurozone: The average retail deposit rate ticked higher for the first time in seven years. Equities: Sector funds saw substantial outflows over the past three months. Credit: This chart shows the shift …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ECRI leading index of economic indicators appears to have stabilized as well. China: China is expected to keep growing its renewables capacity. The Eurozone: Italy’s underperformance has worsened. Equities: The 2019 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 keep moving lower. Credit: Overall, interest coverage ratios are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Several analysts are predicting that the US and China will come to a resolution on trade this spring. This chart shows a US-China trade policy risk indicator (with a forecast). China: China’s banks trade below book value. The Eurozone: Japanese investors have been buying quite a bit of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2019”
