The Daily Shot Brief – July 18th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here is the manufacturing production index.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: AEI Housing Center

 

Canada:  Foreigners sold Canadian shares in May, …

Source: The Daily Shot

 

… but continued to buy debt.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The yen has been surging amid short-covering and rumors of intervention.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters   Read full article
Source: MarketWatch   Read full article  

 

China:  Lower interest rates have not triggered demand for mortgages.

Source: Schroders

 

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a long-overdue pullback on Wednesday, marking its biggest one-day decline since 2022.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

 Credit: Insurance firms have been buying mortgage loans directly rather than via MBS.

Source: @markets   Read full article

 

Food for Thought: The Russia-Ukraine war equipment losses:

Source: The Economist   Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 17th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The decline in the value of gasoline sales was also a drag on retail sales.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s service sector activity edged lower in May.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: The Chinese yuan is undergoing a larger depreciation in real terms and is far below its long-term trend.

Source: Schroders

 

Equities: Small caps are much more sensitive to Treasury yields than large caps, especially tech.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Here is a look at market expectations for the evolution of the Treasury curve.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Food for Thought: The Happiness Score across the United States in 2024:

Source: World Population Review

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market is increasingly convinced that the Fed will implement 75 basis points of rate cuts this year, with September now fully baked in.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Fed officials’ comments are still relatively hawkish.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The Eurozone and US economic surprise indicators have been trending lower.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s economic activity is holding up well.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Implied volatility on near-term ETH option contracts rose sharply over the past week.

Source: Kaiko   Read full article  

 

Equities: Small caps continue to surge as Treasury yields ease (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Corporate tax rates across the G20:

Source: Visual Capitalist   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here is Nomura’s estimate for the June core PCE inflation change (based on the CPI and PPI reports).

Source: Nomura Securities

 

Japan: Consumer inflation expectations have been rising.

Source: @economics

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds are seeing inflows.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: Gold continues to diverge from real rates.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: However, the S&P Global risk appetite index declined.

Source: S&P Global PMI

 

Credit: Leveraged loan activity surged this year.

Source: Bloomberg Law

 

Food for Thought: US 2024 presidential election probabilities in the betting markets:

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The CPI report surprised to the downside as inflation continued to cool in June, bolstering the case for rate cuts starting in September.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The United Kingdom: The trade deficit narrowed.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is holding below its 200-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Energy: Here is a look at US natural gas production.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The CPI report triggered a rotation from tech mega-caps to other sectors.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: How do BDC portfolio loan yields compare to public market yields?

Source: Debtwire; @theleadleft

 

Food for Thought: States reporting the most burglaries:

Source: Omega Law Group

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 11th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Norway’s underlying CPI was below forecasts.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics   Read full article  

 

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s central bank left rates unchanged, but there is increasing talk of potential rate cuts.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Emerging Markets: Argentina is officially in recession.

Source: @economics   Read full article  

 

Equities: The market sees strong earnings growth ahead.

Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital  

 

Rates: Foreign demand for Treasuries has been robust.

Source: Truist Advisory Services  

 

Food for Thought: US industries with the highest and lowest divorce rates:

Source: Forbes Advisor   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 10th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Small business payroll gains have gradually eased, creating a wide gap with rent payment growth, according to BofA client data.

Source: Bank of America Institute

 

The United Kingdom: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on the pound.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Cocoa demand is slowing after massive price increases this year.

Source: @markets

 

Equities: The S&P 500 has diverged from market breadth, as measured by the advance-decline line.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Global Developments: The chart below shows the daily transit trade volume through the Cape of Good Hope and the Suez Canal.

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

Food for Thought: Median income by state:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Bloomberg’s US economic surprise index remains near the lowest levels since 2015.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China:  Tax revenue from individuals and corporations remains weak.

Source: Barclays Research  
Source: Barclays Research 

 

Commodities: Corn and soybean futures have been under pressure.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Equities: The options implied probability of a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by late September is less than 8%. That’s good news for those who want to buy some downside protection.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: Large US banks accumulated a growing amount of commercial real estate (CRE) in off-balance sheet exposure, including many loans to REITs.

Source: PGM Global  

 

Food for Thought: Global data centers’ electricity use:

Source: @bbgvisualdata   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 3rd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Job openings per unemployed person held at pre-pandemic levels.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The unemployment rate remains at record lows.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: The renminbi continues to weaken.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Speculative accounts continue to boost their bets on gold.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The percentage of S&P 500 members beating the index is extraordinarily low.

Source: @WillieDelwiche

 

Food for Thought: AI-powered smartphone shipments and market share growth:

Source: @financialtimes

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – July 2nd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Treasury curve has been steepening in recent days due to resurfacing concerns about the US fiscal outlook.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The ECB is on pause this month but is expected to cut rates again in September and December.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics   Read full article  

 

Japan: What is the options-implied probability of USD/JPY breaching 170 in 3 and 6 months?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The divergence between index prices and breadth could be signaling a pullback.

Source: BofA Global Research  

 

Credit: Coupons paid to CLO investors continue to dwindle – a possible result of the surge in new issuance over the past quarter.

Source: PitchBook  

 

Global Developments: What percentage of central banks will be in easing mode by the end of the year?

Source: BofA Global Research  
Source: JP Morgan Research; @WallStJesus  

 

Food for Thought: Reported incidents and hazards from generative AI:

Source: OECD   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com