The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Like the University of Michigan’s report, the Conference Board’s indicator revealed a decline in consumer sentiment this month, with a notable weakness in the expectations measure.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: AP News

 

The United Kingdom: Will consumer spending stagnate next year?

Source: Oxford Economics

 

China: Here is a look at China’s top 25 real estate companies.

Source: Reuters

 

Cryptocurrency: This map shows the status of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and pilot projects.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: US feeder cattle futures took a hit on Tuesday (stopping at the 50-day moving average) after the USDA reported limited cash sales.

Source: barchart.com
Source: barchart.com

 

Food for Thought: The web browser market:

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US industrial activity is stabilizing along with China’s credit impulse.

Source: PGM Global

 

The Eurozone: PMI indicators point to downside risks for economic growth.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Equities: Tighter liquidity conditions (due to the Fed’s QT) could weigh on stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Year-to-date, the top seven stocks have accounted for the majority of the returns in the S&P 500.

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

Commodities: Uranium prices are surging, boosting share prices of uranium producers.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s inflation continues to ease.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Nursing homes are disappearing:

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US financial conditions have been tightening, driven by a stronger US dollar, higher yields, wider credit spreads, and a pullback in stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Retail investors are not as keen on buying the dip in the current selloff.

Source: Vanda Research

 

Credit: Which sectors have the highest share of 2024 and 2025 bond maturities?

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi, @TheStalwart

 

Europe: Switzerland and the UK, which held rates unchanged, saw their currencies underperform last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: According to the World Economics SMI report, inflation has returned to China’s services sector.

Source: World Economics

 

Emerging Markets: Real rate differentials are less supportive of EM carry trades.

Source: PGM Global

 

Food for Thought: US automakers’ market capitalization per employee:

Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s US Leading Index has seen a 17-month consecutive decline, …

Source: The Daily Shot

… a pattern not observed since the Global Financial Crisis.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The BoE left rates unchanged (MPC voted 5-4 in favor of holding) after core inflation registered a monthly decline in August.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: CNBC

 

Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, …

Source: @economics

… putting pressure on the yen.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Gold continues to consolidate.

Source: barchart.com

 

Equities: It’s been a rough couple of days for stocks after the Fed’s “higher for longer” warning.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US metro areas by population:

Source: @TheDailyShot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 21st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: According to Oxford Economics, the maximum impact of the Fed’s tightening will be felt over the next couple of quarters. We may see a modest recession.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

However, markets have been pricing in economic strength. Are investors in for a disappointment?

Source: Alpine Macro
Source: Alpine Macro

 

Global Developments: Recessions have generally been rarer through time, especially since 1982.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Equities: How did different equity factors react to the Fed’s hawkish message of “higher for longer”?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Energy shares (XLE) have been underperforming oil prices (USO).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Germany’s producer prices saw the biggest yearly decline on record in August.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are the highest and lowest men-to-women ratios:

Source: @genuine_impact

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Shipping rates appear to be stabilizing as the freight recession eases.

Source: Cass Information Systems
Source: @business

 

The United Kingdom: This chart shows the lengths of economic expansions.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Europe: Norway’s inflation forecasts were also revised higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: WTI crude oil is trading above Deutsche Bank’s fair value estimate based on the dollar and global growth.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Equities: As the Fed pauses rate hikes, the stock market performance will depend on whether the US enters a recession.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog

 

Rates: Unlike state and local governments, the US Treasury did not term out more of its debt, which is resulting in sharply higher interest expenses.

Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors

 

Food for Thought: Assets by generation:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Increased talk of a “soft landing” tends to precede a recession.

Source: @AnnaEconomist, @economics  Read full article

 

Homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly dipped this month as elevated mortgage rates and reduced affordability erode demand.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Rates: Historically, the timing of the last rate hike coincided with a cycle peak in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Energy: The recent crude rally has been driven mostly by higher demand.

Source: @ZiadMDaoud   Read full article

 

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have covered their bets against the dollar.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: Industrial producer prices jumped last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Sugar futures hit a multi-year high amid export restrictions in Asia and concerns about the sugar cane harvest in Brazil.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here is reliance on key minerals in vehicle production:

Source: Gavekal Research

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Import prices were unchanged in August.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The housing market continues to struggle (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index has been testing support.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Gold implied vol hit the lowest level since 2019.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: On average, more NYSE stocks are making new one-year price lows.

Source: @hmeisler

 

Credit: Much higher interest costs are ahead for many firms.

Source: @5thrule, @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Food for Thought: US leading causes of death:

Source: USAFacts

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Core producer prices were closer to expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC

 

Europe: At what age do young people leave their parental home?

Source: Eurostat

 

Emerging Markets: Indonesia’s exports are holding up.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures hit a record high.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: US households’ overweight equities exposure doesn’t bode well for longer-term returns.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog

 

Rates: Treasury market implied vol continues to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Preferred alcoholic beverages:

Source: Gallup

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The Eurozone: Money supply continues to contract, driven by weak bank credit and a shift to long-term liabilities. What does that mean for euro-area stocks?

Source: BCA Research

 

Japan: Japanese investors bought a lot of foreign bonds last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United StatesEven with the core CPI coming in above expectations, the market’s response to the inflation report remained subdued. The Fed is expected to keep the target rate unchanged this month, with about a 40% chance of a hike in November.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy:  Crude oil prices continue to surge on expectations of tight supplies.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read full article

 

European natural gas prices rose 10% on Wednesday.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read full article

 

Equities: Will we see a jump in VIX as the economy slows?

Source: Goldman Sachs; @WallStJesus

 

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central bank held rates steady despite hyperinflation.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Instacart’s IPO pricing is well below peak valuations.

Source: @chartrdaily

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.