The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending and business investment strengthened.

The United Kingdom: The Citi UK Economic Surprise Index is significantly higher than its US counterpart.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has turned negative.

Energy: Crude oil implied volatility remains low.

Equities: This chart shows the rotation from the current tech sell-off, which started on July 11th.

Credit: How might various asset classes perform in soft landing or recession scenarios?

Food for Thought: The median age of US homebuyers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: New home sales were softer than expected last month.

The Eurozone: As we saw yesterday, the July PMI report points to a stalling recovery.

China: China unexpectedly cut the 1-year lending facility rate by 20 bps.

India: The PMI report indicated another robust month for India’s business activity. Here is manufacturing.

Commodities: Copper continues to struggle as inventories climb.

Credit: Blackstone’s mortgage REIT dropped sharply after cutting its dividend.

Food for Thought: The average family size in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Median home prices have reached a record high.

China: The Shanghai Property Index is stabilizing as copper approaches initial support.

Cryptocurrency: ETH has underperformed month-to-date.

Commodities: So far, industrial metals have seen no relief, with the selloff persisting.

Equities: How much of the recent (post-CPI report) rally has been driven by short-covering? The most-shorted stocks have been outperforming.

Food for Thought: Top US industries for remote/hybrid job postings:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Leading indicators point to improvements in US factory activity.

Europe: The Swiss broad money supply has returned to growth.

China: China’s forward-looking survey data indicate heightened uncertainty for businesses and households.

Commodities: China continues to flood the markets with cheap copper.

Equities: More stocks in the Russell 3000 Index (broad US market) have made new monthly highs vs. lows – the best reading since 2020.

Credit: In a sign of increased risk appetite, the spread between Ba and Baa (BB vs. BBB) bonds has reached its lowest level since before the pandemic.

Food for Thought: The cost of energy by state:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

China: With China’s third plenum concluded, the central bank has been given the green light to cut rates as economic growth slows. Below are the short-term rates:

The United Kingdom: Speculative accounts have been boosting their bets on the British pound after the elections.

Japan: Diverging monetary policies caused a wide gap between JGB and Treasury performance.

Commodities:  Industrial metals have been under pressure. Will the PBoC rate cut help?

Equities: After a strong first-half, S&P 500 upside typically advances around Q4 with smaller drawdowns.

Food for Thought: Income poverty among the elderly:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell again last month, but the pace of declines appears to be slowing.

China: China’s weak money supply growth signals soft economic activity ahead.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s economic activity unexpectedly jumped in May.

Energy: Crack spreads have been moving lower.

Equities: Retail investors have also been increasing their call option activity.

Food for Thought: Magnificent 7 share buybacks:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is the manufacturing production index.

Canada:  Foreigners sold Canadian shares in May, …

… but continued to buy debt.

Japan: The yen has been surging amid short-covering and rumors of intervention.

China:  Lower interest rates have not triggered demand for mortgages.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a long-overdue pullback on Wednesday, marking its biggest one-day decline since 2022.

 Credit: Insurance firms have been buying mortgage loans directly rather than via MBS.

Food for Thought: The Russia-Ukraine war equipment losses:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The decline in the value of gasoline sales was also a drag on retail sales.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s service sector activity edged lower in May.

China: The Chinese yuan is undergoing a larger depreciation in real terms and is far below its long-term trend.

Equities: Small caps are much more sensitive to Treasury yields than large caps, especially tech.

Rates: Here is a look at market expectations for the evolution of the Treasury curve.

Food for Thought: The Happiness Score across the United States in 2024:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The market is increasingly convinced that the Fed will implement 75 basis points of rate cuts this year, with September now fully baked in.

Fed officials’ comments are still relatively hawkish.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone and US economic surprise indicators have been trending lower.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s economic activity is holding up well.

Cryptocurrency: Implied volatility on near-term ETH option contracts rose sharply over the past week.

Equities: Small caps continue to surge as Treasury yields ease (2 charts).

Food for Thought: Corporate tax rates across the G20:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is Nomura’s estimate for the June core PCE inflation change (based on the CPI and PPI reports).

Japan: Consumer inflation expectations have been rising.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds are seeing inflows.

Commodities: Gold continues to diverge from real rates.

Equities: However, the S&P Global risk appetite index declined.

Credit: Leveraged loan activity surged this year.

Food for Thought: US 2024 presidential election probabilities in the betting markets:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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