The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Citi Economic Surprise Index is sinking again, driven by “hard data.”

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Canada:  Foreign investors pounced on Canadian securities in April buying bonds and stocks/funds.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Investment Executive   Read full article

 

China: The World Economics SMI report shows China’s service sector growth holding up in June, …

Source: World Economics  

 

… but manufacturing remains in contraction territory.

Source: World Economics  

 

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s electronics exports surged last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The gold/silver ratio has sharply diverged from the gold/platinum ratio.

Source: @ANZ_Research

 

Food for Thought: History and forecast of ocean-going cruise passengers:

Source: @financialtimes   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2024

Greetings,

 

China: China’s housing market slump is deepening, which is putting pressure on industrial metals. Here are new home prices (month-over-month):

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United States: Real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: French longer-term yields have risen sharply against the German equivalent. Below is the yield curve comparison.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Commodities: Industrial metals are struggling due to China’s worsening property slump.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Equities: The outperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world has accelerated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: Rate cuts and improving global economic growth have supported risk-on conditions.

Source: MRB Partners  

 

Food for Thought: Father’s Day vs. Mother’s Day spending:

Source: @TheDailyShot 

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, while the core PPI remained unchanged.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC

 

Europe: Container shipping costs from Asia keep rising.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Commodities: Speculative gold bets have been rising.

Source: @bespokeinvest

 

Energy: Crude oil implied volatility continues to trend lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Long-only funds have been rotating into tech stocks, shifting away from nearly all other sectors.

 

Source: Barclays Research; @markets

 

Alternatives: There is a wide dispersion of returns in private equity.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

 

Food for Thought: Versions of US flags used over time:

Source: Quarterhouse

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here are the market-implied rate changes in the months ahead.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Treasury yields and the dollar declined on the back of the soft CPI report but bounced after the Fed’s dot plot showed only one rate reduction this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: This scatterplot shows average returns by S&P 500 sectors in the two weeks following the CPI release.

Source: Numera Analytics (@NumeraAnalytics)  

 

The Eurozone: The euro bounced following the subdued US CPI report.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: The renminbi continues to trade weaker than the PBoC’s midpoint setting.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: The Mexican peso has been facing downward pressure.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article  
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Credit: Banks’ exposure to property loans:

Source: @wealth   Read full article  
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Food for Thought: Homeownership rate changes by state since 2014:

Source: Agent Advice  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Sales and earnings indicators remain depressed.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: At the same time, wage growth remains elevated.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ

 

Japan: Producer prices are accelerating again.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: After a sharp pullback, Bitcoin held support at its 50-day moving average.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Here is a look at oil & gas projects under development over time.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Equities: The Magnificent 7 market cap is now 30% of the S&P 500.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: China’s semiconductor exports to Russia:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 11th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Are the fears of a second inflation wave overblown? Below is a comment from Oxford Economics.

Source: Oxford Economics  

 

The Eurozone: The EUR/USD risk reversals show increased downside bias ahead of the French elections.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: The wide gap between US and Japanese real rates could narrow as both nations reverse unconventional monetary policies.

Source: MUFG Securities  

 

 

Commodities: Here is a look at commodity markets’ correlations to the S&P 500 and the US dollar.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: According to the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, US households are increasingly upbeat on stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article  

 

Credit: Investment-grade bond fund flows remain robust.

Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook  

 

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have been cutting their US dollar exposure ahead of the rebound.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US teens’ labor force participation:

Source: @axios   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2024

Greetings,

We want to begin by sharing that one of our favorite weekend reads, the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas, has released a Major Report on the US stock market (available here). This pack contains 91 charts covering perspectives on price, fundamentals, sectors, styles, asset allocation, and a selection of market curiosities to challenge your perspective.


 

The United States: Conversely, the Household Survey data indicated a sharp decline in employment, suggesting that the official figures from the Establishment Survey may be subject to downward revisions.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Europe: Sweden’s service activity is treading water.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The Economy Watchers Survey Expectations Index continues to tumble.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Hedge funds have built a substantial short position in bitcoin futures. Note that some of these positions may be against cash or ETF holdings.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Speculative accounts are now net short sugar futures.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Investor sentiment continues to be upbeat, according to positioning data.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: United Nations Security Council vetoes by country:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 7th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 27 months.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

The United Kingdom: British firms anticipate a 3.9% increase in output prices over the next year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Mexican vehicle production hit a record high for this time of the year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Cocoa and coffee futures continue to rally, fueled in part by hedge funds.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Here is a look at the global expansion of solar capacity.

Source: @markets

 

Equities: Unlike during the dot-com bubble, Nasdaq 100 prices currently align with fundamentals.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: US imported containers by East Coast port:

Source: Oxford Economics

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 6th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market is settling on two Fed rate cuts this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: The Bank of Canada has initiated a cycle of monetary easing.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

 

The Eurozone: Services PMIs indicated robust growth in Germany, Italy, and Spain last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Import prices point to further easing in Japan’s core goods CPI.

Source: Capital Economics  

 

Equities: Will Nvidia’s rally continue? The options market sees a 14% probability of the share price exceeding $1600 by late September and 19% by the end of the year (current price is $1224).

Source: @MadsEberhardt  

 

Global Developments: Central banks stepped up rate cuts in May.

Source: Truist Advisory Services  

 

Food for Thought: The neurotech device market:

Source: Yahoo Finance   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




The Daily Shot Brief – June 5th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Job openings declined significantly in March and April, suggesting an easing of labor market imbalances. The April figure was below forecasts.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Container shipping costs continue to climb.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

China: Hedge funds have been dumping Chinese stocks.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @WallStJesus

 

Commodities: Chicago lean hog futures are under pressure amid concerns about sustained domestic demand.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The market continues to reward companies that pursue onshoring strategies.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Credit: US private sector credit growth has been slowing.

Source: JP Morgan Research; @economics

 

Food for Thought: Lowest 10 states by real GDP growth in 2023:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com