The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: US inflation has been surprising to the upside in recent months.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog

 

The United Kingdom: The 10-year gilt yield hit the highest level since November.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: Economic growth is improving.

Source: MRB Partners

 

Commodities: Coffee futures continue to climb.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: European natural gas has been rising as Russia targets Ukraine’s natural gas storage facilities.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Equities: High-dividend stocks are now much more exposed to rates than the S&P 500.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Gen Z now outnumbers baby boomers.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – April 11th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has collapsed. Will we see any rate reductions at all this summer?

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The rally has been partly driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, many of which are no longer anticipated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: Traders have been shorting dollar-denominated EM debt.

Source: @markets  Read full article

 

Canada: The BoC signaled a possible rate cut in June.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports surprised to the upside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

Commodities: Copper continues to rally.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Property tax revenue per person, by state:

Source: USAFacts

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – April 10th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Which industries have the highest percentage of firms reporting job vacancies?

Source: Oxford Economics

 

The United Kingdom: This chart presents the latest UK voting intention poll results.

Source: @YouGov

 

Commodities: Central banks loaded up on gold after the recent Russia/Ukraine war.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Equities: The short end of the volatility curve inverted sharply ahead of the CPI report.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is holding long-term support within an uptrend.

Source: MRB Partners

 

Food for Thought: Rising retirement savings targets among Americans:

Source: @wealth

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The Eurozone: Euro-area investor confidence continues to strengthen.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: RTT News  Read full article

 

Commodities: Iron ore futures are attempting a rebound.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets  Read full article

 

Holdings of gold and silver ETFs have diverged.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P. h/t Jake Lloyd-Smith

 

Energy: Global oil stockpiles have been shrinking, which could put upward pressure on prices.

Source: Barclays Research
Source: Chen Zhao, Alpine Macro

 

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s vehicle sales were up 44.5% relative to 2023 levels in March.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Rising popularity of “.AI” domains in search trends compared to “.COM” domains:

Source: @chartrdaily

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – April 8th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The unemployment rate declined.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is back in growth territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Short-term bond yields continue to climb.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Commodities: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on gold.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The options market signals rising complacency.

Source: JP Morgan Research; @WallStJesus

 

Food for Thought: Shifts in religious affiliation among US adults since childhood:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Morgan Stanley estimates that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in March.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

 

The United Kingdom: New vehicle sales continue to run above last year’s levels.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Container shipping costs from Asia continue to trend lower.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is above its 200-day moving average.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Equities: The ratio of RVX (Russell 2000 VIX-equivalent) to VIX is returning to more typical levels.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Opioid overdose deaths by race/ethnicity:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – April 4th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Services PMI fell short of expectations indicating slower consumer spending and weaker economic growth.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: Oxford Economics

 

Europe: Swiss bond yields dropped as the market prices in more SNB rate cuts.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia – Pacific: South Korean banks could see a rebound in net interest income.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s core inflation exceeded 75% in March, leading to increased support for Erdogan’s opposition.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Lower inflation could pressure the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Equities: Goldman sees share buybacks driving demand for stocks this year.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @WallStJesus

 

Food for Thought: The rise of TikTok for news:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – April 3rd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Treasury yields have been trending higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Retail deposits are stabilizing.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The March PMI report indicated a deepening slump in Japan’s manufacturing export orders.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Open interest in the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets continues to rise.

Source: @MadsEberhardt

 

Commodities: Coffee futures are surging.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: barchart.com

 

Equities: The Q1 earnings beats are expected to be close to their historical average, according to Deutsche Bank.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: The cost of selling homes in the US:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – April 2nd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI finally returned to growth in March, topping expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @economics  Read full article

 

This year’s gains in the Citi Economic Surprise Index have been driven by soft data (surveys).

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The Eurozone: Deutsche Bank expects the ECB policy rate to drop to 2% by mid-2025.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Japan: Investors continue channeling capital into Japan-focused equity funds.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Emerging Markets: This chart shows the rate differentials (vs. USD) and implied volatility for select EM currencies.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures are selling off.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Drovers  Read full article

 

Credit: The single-B – BB corporate spreads continue to tighten, singling increased risk appetite.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US households’ financial asset allocation:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The February PCE inflation figure came in slightly below expectations (the chart shows monthly changes).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The S&P 500 equal weight index valuation (forward PE ratio) is now firmly above the ten-year average.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: Toronto’s new home sales and housing starts remain depressed.

Source: Capital Economics

 

China: The official PMI reports topped expectations, with factory activity now back in growth mode.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The copper market is in deep contango.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: Here is credit asset performance during the first quarter.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Maritime zones and airspace jurisdiction boundaries:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.