The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The August PPI report came in slightly stronger than expected, with both headline and core figures topping forecasts.

Europe: Sweden’s headline CPI eased further in August, but the core inflation was steady on a year-over-year basis.

Commodities: US wheat prices are rebounding.

Equities: Here is Goldman’s forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of the year.

Food for Thought: Semiconductor production share by location:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:  The upside surprise in core inflation was driven by housing and, to a lesser extent, travel-related sectors.

The rebound in refi activity has paused in recent weeks.

Equities: It’s relatively rare for the Nasdaq to be down more than 1% and then close up over 2%, as it did on CPI day.

The stock-bond correlation continues to move into negative territory.

Commodities: The platinum market is in deficit.

Energy: Jet fuel stockpiles are at multi-year highs.

Alternatives: This chart shows the growth of AI-related startups among Y Combinator companies.

Food for Thought: Limits of LLM training data from human-generated text:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: August saw a significant drop in online grocery prices.

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate declined further in July.

China: Delaying the retirement age in China could help soften the impact of a declining labor force.

Cryptocurrency: Stablecoin market cap is at a record high.

Equities: The US stock/bond price ratio is testing support, although momentum has significantly weakened.

Credit: US corporate bankruptcies remain elevated.

Food for Thought: The polling impact of the first presidential debate over the years:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Credit card balances as a share of disposable income are nearing pre-COVID levels, while total consumer credit relative to income has been trending downward.

The downtrend in core CPI remains intact.

The Eurozone: Economists expect an 85 bps ECB rate cut in total by the end of the year.

China: State-owned banks have been assisting Beijing in supporting the renminbi, resulting in significant losses for these institutions.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has posted declines in seven of the last twelve Septembers.

Rates: The market is pricing in over 250 bps of rate cuts before the Fed pauses its easing cycle.

Global Developments: Treasuries and base metals are pricing in higher odds of a recession.

Food for Thought: Actual and effective corporate tax rate for S&P 500 companies:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Payrolls rebounded in August but fell short of expectations.

Japan: Speculative accounts further boosted their bets on the yen.

China: The PPI remains in deflation territory.

Commodities: The selloff in China’s steel futures has been relentless.

Equities: Goldman’s positioning indicator continues to move lower.

Credit: Here is a look at CRE debt delinquencies at US banks:

Food for Thought: US passports in circulation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the seasonally adjusted indices.

The United Kingdom: New car sales dipped below last year’s levels.

Japan: The US-Japan rate differentials have been supporting the yen rally.

Energy: US gasoline futures are now trading below $2/gal.

Equities: How do stocks perform after the Treasury curve disinverts?

Rates: There has been a significant increase in the supply of T-bills.

Food for Thought: Migrant encounters at the US-Canada border:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Share prices of recruiting firms suggest that job openings may have stabilized in August.

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly jumped in July, boosted by large-scale items.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, leading some economists to advocate for a rate hike.

Energy: Oil volatility could rise in the event of a prolonged drop in prices.

Equities: The August jobs report will determine whether the Fed opts for a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut. Here is the short-term volatility curve.

Credit: Here’s an overview of credit markets’ yields and implied volatility, illustrating expected returns versus perceived risk.

Food for Thought: Legal status of sports betting:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: June construction spending was revised upward, making July the first monthly decline in 20 months (2 charts).

Canada: Household net worth remains significantly above the pre-COVID trend.

Emerging Markets: Manufacturing output rebounded.

Commodities: Here is a look at global leaders in mineral and metals production.

Equities: The rebound in the Nasdaq 100 Index lost momentum.

Credit: Office vacancies keep rising.

Food for Thought: Global trends in childhood malnourishment and obesity by gender:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Savings are shrinking, suggesting that consumption growth could slow in the months ahead.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals accelerated in July.

Japan: Speculators continue to hold net long bets on the yen.

Emerging Markets: India’s stocks have risen for 13 sessions in a row.

Credit: Corporate bonds, both investment grade and high yield, have posted gains for four consecutive months.

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have turned bearish on the US dollar.

Food for Thought: US plug-in hybrid sales:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Corporate profits hit a record high.

Canada: Most sectors and all provinces are in growth territory.

Japan: The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased in July, but the jobs-to-openings ratio edged higher.

China: China’s shrinking narrow money supply poses a threat to economic growth.

Equities: It’s been a rough month for tech megacaps relative to the broader market.

Rates: This has been one of the most anticipated Fed rate cut cycles.

Food for Thought: Life expectancy by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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