The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: With over half a million jobs created, the January jobs report far surpassed economists’ expectations. Job gains were broad:

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The jobs report shocker boosted rate hike expectations, with the terminal rate back above 5%.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The NYSE New Highs/New Lows indicator reached its best reading since 2021.

Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital

 

Global Developments: How did the manufacturing PMIs change over the past month?

Souce: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Emerging Markets: Here are last week’s EM 10yr government bond yield changes.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: The US oil rig count dipped back below 600 last week.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Europe: EU renewable solar and wind power production overtook natural gas.

Source: @MathisWilliam, @business Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top pizza chains:

Source: @OpenAxisHQ

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Employment growth has slowed the most in cycle-sensitive sectors.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

Unit labor costs increased less than expected last quarter.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps, …

Source: The Daily Shot

 

… amid elevated inflation and wage growth.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Equities:Tech shares drove outperformance in several sectors over the past few days.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone:More rate hikes are coming.

Source: Nordea Markets

 

Commodities: The inverse correlation between gold and US real yields has weakened.

Source: @ANZ_Research

 

Food for Thought: Pedestrian deaths:

Source: USAFacts

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The FOMC’s focus is now on the components of the core inflation index sensitive to wage growth, such as food services.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

The ADP private payrolls report is signaling a hiring slowdown in January. It’s unclear if this softening will be reflected in the official jobs report.

Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Equities: Companies with international sales exposure continue to outperform as the US dollar softens.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

VIX dipped below 18 for the first time in over a year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: January was a strong month for global assets, following a challenging 2022.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

The Eurozone: The Eurozone PMI signaled slower manufacturing contraction.

Source: S&P Global PMI

 

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index broke out into “greed” territory for the first time since March 2022.

Source: Alternative.me

 

Food for Thought: It’s Groundhog Day. Here are some stats:

Source: FiveThirtyEight  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US employment cost index falls for the third quarter.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

 The 1-year US sovereign credit default swap spread signals market fears similar to 2011. The market expects the government to take the debt ceiling fight to the brink.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Canada: Economic growth slowed in November but remained in positive territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China:The manufacturing PMI data from S&P Global was less upbeat than the official report. Factory activity remains in contraction mode.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals in the United Kingdom fall significantly.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Coffee futures are rebounding.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Small caps have been outperforming.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Who lost money on crypto?

Source: Lending Tree

 


Edited by Josh  Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 31st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market has been betting against the FOMC dot plot.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Canada: The market expects the next BoC move to be a rate cut.

Source: @ANZ_Research

 

China: As China’s economy reopens, consumers are opening their wallets (2 charts).

Source: @ANZ_Research
Source: Capital Economics

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s GDP unexpectedly declined last quarter.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Equities: Earnings misses have been resulting in outperformance so far. Too much enthusiasm?

Source: Goldman Sachs; @GavinSBaker

 

Rates: Treasury futures positioning is extraordinarily bearish.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: Here are tech layoffs by sector:

Source: Scotiabank Economics

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The overall consumer spending level is back on its pre-COVID trend.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Rate markets’ implied volatility continues to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Euro-area economic surprises have boosted investor sentiment.

Source: TS Lombard

 

Emerging Markets: Performance data of currencies from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Next, we have the performance of each sector from last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: The US dollar weakened during the 2011 debt ceiling impasse.

Source: ING

 

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here are the largest sports betting states.

Source: @OpenAxisHQ


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 27th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Q4 GDP growth was stronger than expected.

Source: Daily Shot

The broad money supply has not registered a year-over-year decline like this in decades, which should help cool inflation.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Rates: The market is pricing a faster pace of Fed rate cuts than it did a month ago.

Source: Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Investors keep flooding into European stocks.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Emerging Markets: India’s Nifty index is under pressure as Adani companies’ share prices plunge.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: @financialtimes Read full article

 

Equities: BofA wealth management clients have been dumping REITs.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Global Developments: Here is the IMF World Uncertainty Index.

Source: @IMFNews Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly,  here’s life expectancy vs. GDP per capita.

Source: Macrobond

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Mortgage rates are down 100 bps from the recent highs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: The BoC hiked rates by 25 bps and signaled a pause. The market doesn’t see any more rate increases in this cycle, with rate cuts kicking in later this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Goldman no longer expects a recession in the Eurozone.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Asia – Pacific: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the Bank of Korea to raise rates by another 25 bps. Rate cuts could begin around Q4 2023.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Energy: US natural gas futures dipped below $3.0/MMBtu.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @gersonjr, @markets  Read full article

 

Commodities: Political troubles in Peru have been a tailwind for both copper and silver.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Emerging Markets: EM local currency sovereign bonds, particularly in LatAm, significantly outperformed despite a strong dollar and rising global inflation.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the global GDP by country in 2022:

Source: Visual Capitalist  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here is the ratio of cyclical-to-defensive stocks versus the ISM manufacturing PMI.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Full-time workers’ real wage growth has turned positive.

Source: Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The composite PMI climbed above 50, signaling a return to growth.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: Reuters Read full article

 

Australia: Inflation remains hot, with the Q4 report surprising to the upside. The Aussie dollar and bond yields jumped on the report.

Source: Daily Shot

 

China: The reopening-driven economic rebound has been unusually quick.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Commodities: Uranium supply has been insufficient to meet annual reactor requirements. The deficit is expected to continue over the coming years, which could raise the price of uranium.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Equities: US equities have been the most effective hedge against inflation relative to other asset classes over any period between one and 20 years. According to Goldman, commodities have not been a good hedge, based on their risk/return profile in long-term portfolios.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the use of ChatGPT in the workplace.

Source: @_constantjo, @thefuture Read full article

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators has never declined this much in six months without a recession (the index goes back to the late 1950s).

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The Eurozone: Consumer confidence has been recovering from extreme lows.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Volatility traders are focused on the first few days of February.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

One final bounce before the recession?

Source: @JonathanJLevin, @opinion  Read full article

 

China: The World Economics SMI report shows slower declines in China’s business activity this month. Sales growth gained momentum.

Source: World Economics

 

Developers are looking to Beijing for financing support to restart construction.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Energy: US refined product exports hit a multi-year high.

Source: Princeton Energy Advisors

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the maximum speed limit in Europe (100 km = 62 miles):

Source: Datawrapper

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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