The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Easing labor shortages helped reduce inflation at restaurants and hotels.

The United Kingdom: The market sees a couple of additional rate hikes in this cycle.

Energy: Here is a forecast for the Brent crude price trajectory from Numera Analytics.

Equities: Shares of regional banks continue to sink, deepening underperformance relative to the overall banking sector.

Credit: The US still has too many banks.

Food for Thought: States with the highest interest from home searchers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Markets saw the “supercore” inflation slowdown as a positive sign.

The 1-month T-bill yield surged well above the rest of the curve as the X-date looms.

Equities: Airline shares have sold off in recent days.

Credit: Bankruptcies are expected to surge.

The Eurozone: The economic surprise differential with the US points to downside risks for the euro.

China: State-owned companies have been outperforming.

Global Developments: Global services activity continues to diverge from manufacturing.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are Bloomberg’s terminal vs. non-terminal revenues:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment index hit a multi-year low last month.

The United Kingdom: Here is a summary of the local elections.

The Eurozone: Italy’s exports to China surged recently. This is mostly because of demand for a generic liver drug made in Italy that is rumored to prevent COVID-19, according to IIF. (2 charts)

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the third consecutive week of outflows.

Energy: Largest US energy companies are sitting on a lot of cash.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation is moving deeper into negative territory.

Credit: The Fed has never tested for a rate shock in the CCAR stress tests.

Food for Thought: Valuations of US sports franchises:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Banks continue to tighten lending standards. Here is the percentage of lenders tightening standards on loans to small companies.

Canada: Canada’s banking sector has not experienced the declines in bank deposits seen in the US.

China: Bank shares have been rallying.

Credit: Credit tightening is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.

Equities: How do stocks perform after the Fed’s last hike?

Europe: The Norwegian krone bounced from the lows after the rate hike. Will the rebound be sustained?

Asia – Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged last month.

Food for Thought: Here are notable trends in US college enrollment rates:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Prime-age labor force participation has been surging, which in theory, should slow wage growth.

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly tumbled in March, raising recession concerns.

Asia-Pacific: AUD/USD has not kept up with the rise in industrial metal prices.

Credit: Bank deposits declined further going into April month-end.

Foreign banks’ US dollar deposits saw the largest monthly decline since 2011.

Equities: Hedge fund clients haven’t been this bearish on stocks in at least a decade.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s equities have been under pressure ahead of the elections.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top prescription drugs in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wage growth is still too high to support a sustained drop in inflation.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals topped expectations.

The Eurozone: What are the drivers of weakening loan demand?

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with bitcoin roughly flat and XRP underperforming select crypto peers.

Commodities: Speculators increased their net-long gold positions as the precious metal outperforms the S&P 500.

Energy: The remarkable decline in European natural gas prices continues.

Food for Thought: UPS package volume:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market is anticipating approximately 180 bps of rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

Companies increasingly mention weak demand on earnings calls.

The Eurozone: The ECB faces the dilemma of credit conditions tightening while core inflation remains well above target.

Emerging Markets: ZAR/USD (South African rand) experienced a deep drawdown despite its decent real carry versus the dollar.

Rates: The Treasury curve is steepening at the long end (bull steepener).

Commodities: Gold jumped on Wednesday, nearing the high reached in 2020, as the Fed signaled a pause and the US dollar moved lower. Persistent turbulence in the US baking sector and the debt ceiling concerns are also driving prices higher.

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid demand concerns.

Food for Thought: Here are the months it took apps to reach 100 million users:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Voluntary resignations slowed further while layoffs increased.

The United Kingdom: Home prices unexpectedly jumped in April.

Europe: Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to contract.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw two consecutive weeks of outflows.

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is trending lower.

Equities: The equal-weight S&P 500 index continues to underperform.

Food for Thought: Manufacturing labor shortages:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: US manufacturing costs are rising again.

The federal government missed out on locking in low long-term rates in recent years, causing interest payments to surge.

Equities: Equity implied volatility is too low, given elevated credit spreads.

Rates: The Treasury bill curve remains distorted amid the debt ceiling “game of chicken.”

The Eurozone: Italian wage growth hit a multi-year high.

Asia-Pacific: Investors’ inflation expectations for Asia hit an eight-year low, according to a survey by BofA.

Commodities: New York sugar futures fell from an 11-year high on Monday.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are AI-related publications in the US and China:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Personal saving as a share of disposable income is recovering.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone avoided a recession in Q1, but growth was below forecasts.

Japan: Investment has been slowing.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s exports were 14% below last year’s levels in April.

Cryptocurrency: This chart shows El Salvador’s crypto remittances (funds denominated in crypto sent from abroad).

Equities: Earnings projections remain fairly optimistic.

Food for Thought: Marriage rates in advanced economies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief