The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

Canada: Trump’s latest tariff pledge sent the loonie tumbling.

The Eurozone: China’s slowdown has been a drag on the euro.

Equities: Market breadth has improved sharply in recent days. Here is the percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 20-day moving average.

Homebuilder shares surged on Monday as Treasury yields declined.

Emerging Markets: Many EM economies are increasingly dependent on US demand.

Commodities: Arabica coffee futures reached their highest level since 1997.

Food for Thought: Increasing stability in US county-level voting patterns (current year GOP % vs. previous year):

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Equities: Single-stock leveraged ETFs have been very popular.

Rates: Treasuries are seeing substantial fund outflows.

The United States: The strength of the US dollar has been weighing on export orders.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s department store sales fell below last year’s levels, marking the first year-over-year decline since early 2022.

The Eurozone: The ECB has expressed concern over deteriorating fiscal conditions in several economies.

Emerging Markets: Here is an overview of the IMF’s credit to the ten largest debtor nations.

Food for Thought: US power capacity mix:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s leading indicator declined again.

The United Kingdom: The slump in industrial orders eased somewhat this month.

Japan: Inflation eased last month.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is closing in on $100k.

Equities: US equity fund inflows have hit extreme levels this year.

Food for Thought: Annual deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is approaching $100k, boosted by massive volumes in the newly launched bitcoin ETF options.

Commodities: Gold is back at its 50-day moving average amid geopolitical risks.

Energy: US natural gas futures are higher as forecasts point to colder weather ahead.

Crude oil is higher this morning as Russia fires an ICBM.

Equities: Will we see a rotation out of tech into other sectors?

India: Indian stocks are moving deeper into correction territory.

Food for Thought: US federal government spending by category:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: This seasonally adjusted chart illustrates the divergence between single-family and multifamily permits.

The United Kingdom: The October CPI report topped expectations.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin reached another record high.

Commodities: Cocoa prices reached the highest level since 1990.

Energy: Crude oil implied volatility continues to trend lower.

Equities: The post-election jump in Deutsche Bank’s positioning indicator has been extreme.

Food for Thought: Market share trends among leading cloud providers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: It’s been a challenging year for European shares relative to the US.

Commodities: European olive oil prices tumbled in recent days.

Global Developments: After Biden authorized Ukraine to use US missiles on Russian territory, Putin signed a new doctrine allowing Russia to respond with nuclear weapons without requiring a direct nuclear attack.

The Swiss franc, typically a haven currency, strengthened following the announcement from Russia.

The United States: US import prices unexpectedly rose last month, but the strength of the dollar in November is expected to reverse this trend.

Credit: Generally, US corporations have avoided taking on higher borrowing costs.

Emerging Markets: This scatterplot illustrates that countries with the largest goods surpluses with the US experienced the biggest currency declines since the US elections.

Equities: This chart shows current sector drawdowns from the highs.

Food for Thought: Semiconductor revenues:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Capacity utilization continues to sink.

The United Kingdom: The production-based monthly GDP index declined in September.

Europe: Poland’s economy unexpectedly contracted last quarter.

Commodities: US rice futures are rebounding.

Energy: US fracking activity has been slowing.

Equities: Semiconductor stocks pulled key indices lower on Friday.

Food for Thought: Life expectancy:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The market is now pricing in only 54 bps of rate reductions next year.

The United Kingdom: The Q3 GDP growth was softer than expected.

India: Food inflation has been rising.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds registered their largest weekly inflow on record.

Energy: US crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, while refined product stockpiles, particularly gasoline, saw significant declines.

Equities: Stock futures are down this morning after Chair Powell dampened sentiment with hawkish remarks.

Food for Thought: Rising median age of US first-time and repeat homebuyers in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield has already deviated from its typical post-Fed cut path. A major factor this year has been resilient economic growth and overly aggressive rate-cut expectations.

Equities: The S&P 500 risk premium (forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield) has turned negative for the first time since 2002, indicating frothy valuations in the US stock market.

The United States: This chart illustrates the changes in CPI components for October.

Market expectations for a December Fed rate cut have risen, with the probability approaching 90%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin and gold have diverged after the US election.

Commodities: This scatterplot illustrates the correlations of commodity markets with the S&P 500 and the US dollar.

Alternatives: The chart below shows the current allocation of institutional investors across major alternative asset strategies.

Food for Thought: Top 10 prescription drugs in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: NFIB small business sentiment improved last month.

Canada: The loonie has fallen to its lowest level against the USD since 2020.

China: How could Beijing potentially respond to Trump’s tariffs?

Commodities: The recent surge in palladium prices has been reversed.

Energy: OPEC continues to cut its forecasts for crude oil demand.

Equities: Equity market valuations in the US and India have diverged from global peers in recent years, albeit still below historical extremes.

Food for Thought: Holiday shoppers’ responses to high prices during this season:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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