Greetings, The United States: As a result of tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and soft economic data, markets are now pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will not hike rates this year (and may even lower them). Note that the FOMC is forecasting two rate increases. The Fed’s rate trajectory will …
The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Credit Suisse expects two rate hikes in 2019. Cryptocurrency: Token offerings and ICO funds raised continue to decline. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s headline CPI is expected to slow sharply in the months to come (due to oil prices), while the core inflation should keep grinding higher (with wages). Credit: Who …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Household income increases have been relatively broad over the past few years. China: China’s stocks look cheap relative to global shares. The Eurozone: Is Germany facing a recession? Credit: Investors remain concerned about lower leveraged loan recoveries going forward. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s monetary policy is the tightest …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Inflation will moderate next year as the massive oil price adjustment makes its way through the economy. China: Slower credit expansion does not bode well for China’s economic activity next year. The Eurozone: The market’s expectations for the timing of the ECB’s liftoff are getting pushed further out. …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The spread between job gains for workers vs. managers (especially in cyclical sectors) declined last month. If the trend continues, it would indicate that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. China: Are capital outflows picking up again? The Eurozone: Central banks are increasing their allocations …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The overall consumer debt (as % of disposable income) has declined in recent years even as the total household net worth rose. This divergence suggests that, on average, US household balance sheets remain relatively healthy. Of course, these trends have been highly uneven across income categories. China: China’s manufacturing wage …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US financial conditions have tightened, but we are nowhere close to the levels we saw in 2016. China: China’s stocks have been outperforming US markets over the past month. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the euro area GDP growth over the next couple of years. Credit: Leveraged …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Goldman’s US Current Activity Indicator has been moving lower since September. China: Some economists predict a further slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector (before stabilization). The Eurozone: Credit demand in the Eurozone has been slowing and is expected to become a drag on loan growth. Credit: Baa-rated corporate …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan survey tells us that Americans who expect the highest long-term inflation have been scaling back their projections. China: US imports of Chinese goods that are subject to 25% tariffs are collapsing. That’s why a delay in the current 10% tariffs becoming 25% is a big deal. But …
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The Daily Shot Brief – November 28th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The Q3 GDP update was unchanged at 3.5%. Here are the latest adjustments of the GDP components. China: These charts show the components of China’s consumer credit and debt-service burden. The Eurozone: Italian banks have a relatively small liquidity position, making them more vulnerable. Global Developments: The …
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