Greetings, The United States: Some Fed officials have been concerned about commercial real estate prices, which have outpaced the GDP growth. With the decline in rates over the past year, however, property prices will continue to climb. United Kingdom: The probability of Brexit by November 1st dipped to around 20% in the betting markets. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: First off, a quick update on the state of the housing market. New home sales surprised to the upside. Eurozone: German retail sales are facing some headwinds as sentiment softens. China: Small business loan growth tumbled as Beijing clamped down on shadow financing. It was an unintended consequence …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the gap between consumer expectations and current conditions. Extreme lows in this measure tend to indicate that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. Eurozone: Finally, this chart shows the average annual employment and GDP growth by period. The current expansion is more “employment-rich” than …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2019”
Greetings, Eurozone: The next shoe to drop could be Germany’s labor market. United Kingdom: Credit quality continues to deteriorate for UK industrials. The United States: Credit standards have been tightening. However, small businesses appear to have no trouble accessing credit. China: Rather than boosting spending in response to Beijing’s tax cuts, households have engaged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 24th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Trade policy uncertainty is creating headwinds for businesses, including those in non-manufacturing sectors. Eurozone: Germany’s producer price inflation is approaching zero. Asia – Pacific: The weakness in Asia’s exports persists, which doesn’t bode well for global growth. South Korea saw its biggest decline in a decade. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 23rd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: US commercial contractors reported increasing backlogs, which is a positive sign for construction activity. Eurozone: The new round of TLTRO financing didn’t get many takers. But there is still plenty of time for banks to tap this cheap source of funding. China: Companies continue to complain about regulatory uncertainty when …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The Fed delivered the widely expected rate cut. The FOMC statement acknowledged the strength in consumer spending and softer business investment and exports. Two Committee members preferred to leave rates unchanged, while James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) wanted a 50 bps cut. Here are the changes in the statement from …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: For now, the percentage of industrial sectors that are in contraction remains below recessionary levels. Eurozone: Germany’s manufacturing slump has been an outlier. China: The yuan’s share of the global currency market remains modest. Global Developments: This chart shows the time lag between recession indicators and recessions. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Economists are not optimistic. Eurozone: According to Goldman’s analysts, the new QE program would end up purchasing about 3% of the Italian current debt stock, 4% of the Spanish one, and 5% of the Portuguese one. China: Home sales are expected to moderately recover as monetary policy easing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 17th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Working capital at US farms has been shrinking in recent years. Eurozone: This map illustrates the ECB governors’ opposition to QE. China: Airfreight activity points to persistent weakness in manufacturing. Global Developments: Foreign direct investment has stalled in recent years. Food for Thought: Values considered important (by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 16th, 2019”
