The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Refi applications are well above 2022 levels.

Commodities: September tends to be a strong month for gold.

Energy: US jet fuel stockpiles hit a record high last week.

China: China has made significant progress in combating pollution.

Equities: Shares of regional banks continue to lag behind large banks.

Global Developments: Manufacturers in advanced economies are once again struggling with high freight costs.

Food for Thought: Eroding democracies:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index showed improvement this month, topping estimates.

The United Kingdom: The pound has been rallying as gilt yields move higher.

China: Japan’s investment in China has been slowing.

Commodities: Gold hit an all-time high on Tuesday.

Equities: S&P 500 earnings growth has broadened outside of tech.

Credit: Munis have become cheaper relative to Treasuries in recent months.

Food for Thought: Spending on plant-based foods:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US durable goods orders surged in July, driven by strong aircraft orders.

Emerging Markets: Speculative BRL short positions appear stretched as BRL/USD tests support at the bottom-end of its trading range.

Commodities: Sugar futures are rebounding.

Energy: Brent crude prices surged amid uncertainty in the Middle East and oil field shutdowns in Libya.

Equities: Companies outside the Magnificent 7 are expected to contribute more to S&P 500 earnings per share over the next few quarters.

Credit: Leveraged loan funds are experiencing outflows as the Fed prepares for rate cuts.

Food for Thought: Dating apps active users:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: New home sales hit the highest level since 2020 in July.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s industrial production registered a pullback in July.

Emerging Markets: Speculative accounts are curtailing their peso carry trades.

Commodities: Speculators further boosted their bets on gold futures last week.

Equities: Corporate cash as a share of total assets has been trending lower, indicating that we could see a pullback in share buybacks.

Credit: HY bonds have performed well this year.

Food for Thought: Tesla’s Q2 performance:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the seasonally adjusted trends.

The United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment has leveled off.

Japan: BofA ‘s private clients have been exiting Japanese equities.

Equities: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone after a sharp drop from “greed” levels during the sell-off in risk assets.

Global Developments: Regional banks’ earnings estimates continue to lag behind those of the overall banking sector.

Food for Thought: Weekly area burned by wildfires:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications registered a pullback last week and refi activity eased.

However, we should see an improvement this week as mortgage rates move back below 6.5%.

The Eurozone: French business activity rebounded this month, boosted by the Paris Olympics.

Emerging Markets: Carry traders have been frustrated by the Mexican peso’s weakness.

Energy: US crude oil and refined product inventories declined last week, surprising to the downside.

Global Developments: The combined shift in relative rates plus the carry unwind explains sharp FX moves over the past few weeks.

Food for Thought: Seafood from aquaculture vs. wild catch:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The median asking rent remains below last year’s levels.

The United Kingdom: Household income growth has been slowing.

Europe: The krona has been strengthening.

Commodities: Gold miners’ shares have been outperforming gold in recent days.

Energy: Uranium prices have been rolling over amid increased production.

Equities: Global share buybacks have surged in recent years, nearly equaling dividend payouts.

Food for Thought: Capital spending by the largest tech firms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Fewer companies are mentioning labor shortages and labor costs on earnings calls.

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies have been rallying against the dollar.

Energy: Gasoline futures continue to sink, signaling lower prices at the pump.

Equities: Companies started discussing the election much earlier in this cycle than in previous ones.

Credit: High yield spreads are tight relative to the Treasury market implied vol.

Global Developments: Global economic surprises have deteriorated.

Food for Thought: Market share of major US grocery retailers:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: As projected by Barclays Research (see chart from yesterday), US retail sales in July exceeded expectations, easing recession concerns.

The United Kingdom: The monthly (production-based) GDP indicator was flat in June.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s inflation has begun to ease but remains in hyperinflation territory.

Commodities: Orange juice futures broke above a short-term consolidation.

Equities: Here is a look at passive vs. active cumulative fund flows since 2008.

Rates: BofA private clients continue to extend their debt portfolio duration.

Food for Thought: Electricity consumption per request for various AI platforms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: On a 3-month basis, the Sticky CPI dipped below 3% for the first time since 2021.

The Eurozone: Here is a look at the second-quarter GDP growth across the Eurozone.

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s retail card spending declined for the sixth consecutive month in July, pointing to weaker consumption.

Emerging Markets: EM FX implied vol remains elevated.

Equities: Just give me the largest 50 stocks and forget the rest …

Credit: CLO issuance remains strong.

Food for Thought: Potential reduction in dementia cases through elimination of key risk factors across life stages:

Edited by William Villacis

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