Greetings, The United States: The June regional indices as well as the IHS Markit PMI (see chart) point to a further weakening in the ISM Manufacturing PMI (at the national level). Here is Goldman’s manufacturing activity tracker. The Eurozone: Greek sovereign credit default spreads are tightening to fresh multi-year lows. Equities: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 24th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: First-time home purchases (as a percentage of the population) remain well below peak levels. The Eurozone: Services continue to support private-sector growth in the Eurozone. Equities: The 2020 earnings growth expectations remain above 10% even as the 2019 forecasts keep falling. Global Developments: Will easier financial conditions …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: When the Fed preemptively cut rates in the 1990s (as it is expected to do this year), the manufacturing sector was in much worse shape than it is now. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer sentiment continues to soften. Equities: Equity fund outflows are near record levels. Credit: Leveraged loans …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here is the CPI trajectory for each business cycle since 1879. The Eurozone: According to Natixis, “banks have hardly sold assets (bonds) to the ECB, and therefore, most of the ECB’s [net] asset purchases have been from non-bank economic agents, which fuelled money creation.” Energy: Oil supply/demand balance will …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Here, we have the case for and against rate cuts by the Fed (see chart below). – The case for: • Manufacturing recession • Tumbling inflation expectations • The inverted yield curve • A strong US dollar • Global economic uncertainty – The case against: • The stock market near records …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 18th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Americans are increasingly confident in their ability to find work if they lose a job today. The Eurozone: The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has been grinding higher. Equities: Tariffs remain a major topic on corporate earnings calls. Credit: This chart shows the issuance of asset-backed securities …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Unless Congress lifts the debt ceiling, analysts expect the US Treasury to run out of cash in October The Eurozone:The Greek sovereign credit default swap spread tightened to multi-year lows. The 2015 spike shows the moment when Greece was staring down the Grexit abyss. Equities: Here are four …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The Treasury market is pricing in low odds that the US-China trade tensions will be resolved at the G20 meeting. The Eurozone: Excluding inventory adjustments, the euro-area GDP growth has been quite strong. Equities: Will we see an earnings recession for the S&P 500? Global Developments: High-yield …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Falling residential investment has been a drag on the GDP growth. Will we see a reversal in this trend? The Eurozone: This chart shows the sharp divergence between private and public employment trends in France. Equities: Will the US CapEx slowdown spread to tech? Credit: High-yield bonds …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent weakness in manufacturing drag down service-sector activity? The Eurozone: Eurozone-based companies’ earnings growth is stalling out. Equities: BMO’s valuation index suggests that US stocks are fairly valued. Global Developments: Short-term rate differentials point to downside risks for the US dollar. Food for Thought: US …
