Greetings, United States: The spread between the Conference Board’s and the U. Michigan’s present-conditions sentiment indices signals that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. The United Kingdom: Here are some BoE policy rate scenarios from Capital Economics. China: Growth in construction starts peaked in mid-2018 and has been …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The housing shortage in the US is getting worse. The United Kingdom: Government spending is expected to increase, no matter who wins the elections. Europe: Yield curves across Europe continue to steepen. Here is the Bund curve vs. a month ago. Asia-Pacific: Foreigners increasingly control Japanese stock trading. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The upcycle in hotel revenue per available room (RevPar) is nearing an end. The Eurozone: Executives remain gloomy about exports. China: The charts below compare household balance sheets for China and the US. – Assets: – Debt: – Savings: Emerging Markets: South Africa dodged the Moody’s downgrade bullet – for now. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: As expected, the Fed cut rates for the third time this year. The FOMC also hinted at a pause going forward by getting rid of the wording “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” Here are the changes in the statement. So, the market-based probability of a fourth rate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The recent curve inversion has been shorter and shallower than the previous ones. This chart shows the spread between the 10yr Treasury and the fed funds rate. The United Kingdom: Households’ liquidity growth points to a rebound in consumption. China: Chinese local governments have quite a bit of debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: Small banks have been grappling with higher credit card delinquencies. The United Kingdom: As was widely expected, Parliament blocked the Prime Minister’s call for an early general election. Also, the UK leadership approval rate declined this year. The Eurozone: Loan growth has diverged from the GDP, which doesn’t …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: US consumers view the current environment as ideal for selling a house. The Eurozone: Economists keep downgrading their euro-area 2020 growth forecasts. China: The World Economics SMI indicators point to a rebound in business activity in October. Services: Manufacturing: Equities: Here is the put-call ratio for the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: Morgan Stanley’s US recession probability model has turned lower in recent weeks. Europe: With foreign capital flowing in, European markets have been remarkably forgiving of businesses that missed earnings expectations. Companies that missed saw (on average) an increase in their share price. And those firms that beat forecasts experienced massive rallies. These …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home price appreciation has slowed this year. Nonetheless, home prices are still up 4.6% from the same time last year. And housing prices continue to outpace wages. The Eurozone: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, economic data are pointing to euro-area growth stalling. Europe: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The unemployment rate appears to have bottomed in some states. The Eurozone: According to the ECB (European Central Bank), more banks have been reporting an increase in business loan application rejections this year. China: This chart shows China’s exports by destination. Despite the trade war, net exports had a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2019”
