The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here is the ratio of cyclical-to-defensive stocks versus the ISM manufacturing PMI.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Full-time workers’ real wage growth has turned positive.

Source: Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The composite PMI climbed above 50, signaling a return to growth.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: Reuters Read full article

 

Australia: Inflation remains hot, with the Q4 report surprising to the upside. The Aussie dollar and bond yields jumped on the report.

Source: Daily Shot

 

China: The reopening-driven economic rebound has been unusually quick.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Commodities: Uranium supply has been insufficient to meet annual reactor requirements. The deficit is expected to continue over the coming years, which could raise the price of uranium.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Equities: US equities have been the most effective hedge against inflation relative to other asset classes over any period between one and 20 years. According to Goldman, commodities have not been a good hedge, based on their risk/return profile in long-term portfolios.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the use of ChatGPT in the workplace.

Source: @_constantjo, @thefuture Read full article

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators has never declined this much in six months without a recession (the index goes back to the late 1950s).

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The Eurozone: Consumer confidence has been recovering from extreme lows.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Volatility traders are focused on the first few days of February.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

One final bounce before the recession?

Source: @JonathanJLevin, @opinion  Read full article

 

China: The World Economics SMI report shows slower declines in China’s business activity this month. Sales growth gained momentum.

Source: World Economics

 

Developers are looking to Beijing for financing support to restart construction.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Energy: US refined product exports hit a multi-year high.

Source: Princeton Energy Advisors

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the maximum speed limit in Europe (100 km = 62 miles):

Source: Datawrapper

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 23rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Existing home sales were very weak in December, down 36% in 2022. This is the biggest annual decline in decades.

Source: Daily Shot

US gasoline prices are on track for their first monthly gain since last June.

Source: Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Dutch home price declines have accelerated.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM total equity returns have significantly underperformed developed markets in the past decade, having significantly outperformed in the previous decade.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Commodities: Turkish central bank has been buying a lot of gold.

Source: @ANZ_Research

This map shows the global soybean trade, with much of it headed for China.

Source: @kannbwx

 

Energy: Russia sold a lot of oil in December (which will buy plenty of cheap North Korean artillery shells and rockets).

Source: @ANZ_Research

 

Equities: The market rewarded tech layoffs last week.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: CNBC Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Here’s a breakdown of the US federal budget.

Source: @genuine_impact

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 20th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Unemployment claims continue to signal tightness in the labor market. Initial applications for jobless benefits hit a multi-year low for this time of the year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Housing starts registered their first annual decline since 2009.

Source: @gutavsaraiva, @markets  Read full article

 

Europe: European stocks had a strong start to the year as fund flows turned positive.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

China: The housing market is primed for a bounce.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Credit: Default probabilities have been rising in some sectors.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

 

Energy: US oil stockpiles continue to rise.

Source: @EIAgov

 

US natural gas is nearing $3/mmbtu.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: To end the week, here is the population of India’s states compared with different countries:

Source: Visual Capitalist  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 19th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Economic activity in the US has taken a marked downturn. December retail sales surprised to the downside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

The United Kingdom: The RICS housing market index tumbled last month, surprising to the downside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: Global investors have been rotating into EM stocks.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: Here is a look at relative factor valuations.

Source: Research Affiliates  Read full article

 

Market focus has shifted from inflation to recession, with the stock-bond correlation turning negative.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Rates: US bond fund inflows surged last week.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Japan: Foreigners have been dumping JGBs.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is an illustration of nuclear fusion:

Source: Longview Economics

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 18th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The first manufacturing report of the month was a disaster. The NY Fed’s regional factory activity index dipped to the 2008 lows.

Source: Daily Shot

Financial conditions continue to ease, frustrating Fed officials. This index is a Z-score tracking the overall level of financial stress in the U.S. money, bond, and equity markets to help assess the availability and cost of credit.

Source: Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s economic sentiment is rebounding rapidly.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Japan: The BoJ is not budging on yield control. Here is the market reaction.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Commodities: The rally in gold has been too fast relative to the dollar’s decline.

Source: @Ole_S_Hansen

 

Equities: Financials dragged the Dow lower on Tuesday.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: We have some home price indices and valuations.

Source: BCA Research

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the best and worst-performing hard commodities in 2022.

Source: Visual Capitalist, h/t Walter Read full article

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The U. Michigan’s 1-year consumer inflation expectations declined further, but longer-term inflation projections edged up.

Source: Reuters  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

The fiscal and financial conditions drag on growth will ease this year.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

The Eurozone: For the first time in a year, economists upgraded the Eurozone GDP forecast as the energy crisis eases.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: European natural gas prices continue to tumble amid elevated inventories.

Source: Macrobond

 

China: Elevated savings could generate a spending boom this year.

Source: Citi Private Bank

 

Credit: It’s been a good few days for European corporate bond sales.

Source: @priazrocha, @markets  Read full article

 

Commodities: Iron ore futures declined as Beijing cracks down on rising prices.

Source: @markets  Read full article
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the deadliest places for journalists:

Source: Statista

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – January 13th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here are the contributions to the -0.1% CPI decline in December.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrencies: Cryptos started the year on a strong note.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: @isabelletanlee, @crypto Read full article

 

Commodities: Iron ore continues to surge on China’s reopening.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Energy: China is importing “rebranded” Russian oil.

Source: @JavierBlas

 

Equities: Meme stocks are soaring.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Credit: This scatterplot shows the fixed-income universe risk/reward profile (risk = correlation to the S&P 500, reward = yield).

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the 15 largest employers in the world.

Source: @genuine_impact

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – January 12th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Here are new home sales vs. houses under construction.

Source: Macrobond

 

The yield curve inversion deepened this week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The dam is about to break. The BoJ’s battle with the markets is becoming too costly, as the central bank buys massive amounts of JGBs.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Meanwhile, inflation is accelerating.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Equities: US small-caps appear attractively valued, but depressed small business sentiment poses downside risks.

Source: BCA Research

 

Energy: US crude oil inventories jumped last week.

Source: Reuters  Read full article
Source: EIA

 

Global Developments: Global inflation continues to slow.

Source: JP Morgan Research; @carlquintanilla

 

Food for Thought: Here is the share of global goods exports by region:

Source: Statista

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – January 11th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Wholesale used vehicle prices are down almost 15% from a year ago.

Source: Daily Shot

Weaker fertilizer prices signal lower food inflation ahead.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Europe: Are outflows from European equity funds over?

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Cryptocurrency: Investors are betting that the GBTC discount to NAV will narrow.

Source: Daily Shot
Source: @kgreifeld, @crypto Read full article

 

Commodities: Palladium has not participated in the precious metals rally.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Equities: The S&P 500 will face resistance near 4,000.

Source: Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: The market is sitting on significant USD cash exposure, which is vulnerable to further liquidation as the dollar’s safe-haven appeal declines, according to Deutsche Bank.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the global Lorenz Curve.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 


Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.