The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2020

Greetings,   Global Developments: Healthcare funds are benefitting from sizeable inflows, in part due to the epidemic. But so are other risk assets.   The United States: The Fed’s accommodative monetary policy produced substantial asset inflation, while growth in “real economy” prices has been modest.   Also, one of the reasons for low volatility in …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2020

Greetings,   The Eurozone: German banks are holding record amounts of physical cash.   China: The government is expected to continue providing substantial fiscal stimulus to the economy in 2020.   Commodities: ETFs’ holdings of gold hit another record high.   Energy: The front of the Brent curve shifted into contango (positive-sloping) amid demand concerns. …

The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2020

Greetings,   China: The nation’s central bank (PBoC) injected a huge amount of liquidity into the financial system as the markets reopened after the Lunar New Year holidays. The PBoC wanted to make sure there is ample liquidity for banks to keep rolling their liabilities (cash borrowed before the holidays).   The United Kingdom: Foreigners …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2020

Greetings,   Global Developments: Let’s begin with some updates on the coronavirus. Here is the Google search frequency for the word “coronavirus”: Preparedness for epidemic/pandemic:   China: Here is the distribution of China’s shadow-banking credit.   Eurozone: The ECB and other economists have been downgrading the euro-area inflation forecasts (PM = Pantheon Macroeconomics).   United States: …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2020

Greetings,   Commodities: According to the BofAML FMS monthly survey, global fund managers started the year overweight commodities (highest in eight years). Based on the charts above, these positions didn’t work out well. Nonetheless, once the coronavirus scare eases, we may see a rebound in some commodity markets.   Equities: The VIX curve inverted on …

The Daily Shot Brief – January 27th, 2020

Greetings,   China: The Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread, with quarantines appearing to be much less effective than some had hoped (see story). While China’s markets are closed, stock futures are down over 5% today. And the offshore renminbi dropped sharply as well.   Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, manufacturing activity appears to be stabilizing …