Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the December employment report, which was weaker than the markets were expecting. This chart shows the changes in employment by sector in 2019. United Kingdom: The economic impact of Brexit-related uncertainty has been substantial. Asia Pacific: According to BCA Research, Chinese and Korean government bond yields …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 13th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: Downside protection in the S&P 500 is near recent lows, indicating rising investor confidence Credit: Investors are piling into investment-grade bond funds. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central bank has accelerated money “printing” since the elections. Eurozone: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the ECB to play it safe in the first half of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2020”
Greetings, Europe: The EU is running a trade surplus with itself. This anomaly may be caused by value-added tax fraud of more than €60 billion. Asia-Pacific: Sentiment among large Japanese electronics retailers has soured. Will they begin to cut prices? China: As China relies more on consumption-driven growth, the decline in disposable …
Greetings, Commodities: Farmers are concerned that hostilities in the Middle East could curtail US wheat exports to the region. Credit: US auto loan and credit card delinquencies have been trending higher. Emerging Markets: Growth in the UAE’s business activity stalled even before the ratcheting of Middle East tensions. Japan: Here are …
Greetings, The United States: Turning to manufacturing, the ISM and Markit PMI measures have diverged further. Part of the difference is the ISM indicator’s higher correlation to factory activity in the Midwest, which experienced significant deterioration in recent months (see chart). Will a rebound in manufacturing in 2020 provide a tailwind for economic …
Greetings, Energy: The US economy’s exposure to rising crude oil prices is relatively low. The nation’s oil intensity (oil consumed per unit of GDP) has declined significantly in recent decades (see chart). And US net imports of crude are at the lowest level in years. Also, US crude oil inventories declined in recent …
Greetings, Equities: The S&P 500 hit a record high after China’s central bank cut reserve requirements, which will release a substantial amount of liquidity into the financial system (see #3 here). As discussed previously, technical indicators signal that the market is overbought. Credit: Here is S&P’s credit upgrades-to-downgrades ratio. Europe: Will we see …
Greetings, The United States: Online search activity for mortgage loans/refinancing is off the highs (the index peaked in August) but remains elevated. Next, we have the US banking system vulnerability metrics, which have all been ticking higher over the past year. Here is how each index is defined, according to the Federal Reserve …
Greetings, Business: Job cuts at banks: Technology: Electric vehicles: Economic Trends: The number of labor strike days per 1,000 employees: Geopolitical Trends: Defense spending: Health: Healthcare spending per person: Happy New Year! Most popular new year’s resolutions (2 charts): Edited by Daniel Moskovits To receive the Daily Shot Premium, you …
Greetings, The United States: Higher labor costs are pressuring corporate margins. The Eurozone: Traders are upbeat on the euro. Here is the 3-month EUR/USD risk reversal. Emerging Markets: Quantitative easing in developed economies should support EM equities. Energy: The Brent curve backwardation continues to climb, which tends to signal tight supplies. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 31st, 2019”
