The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Easing labor shortages helped reduce inflation at restaurants and hotels.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

The United Kingdom: The market sees a couple of additional rate hikes in this cycle.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Here is a forecast for the Brent crude price trajectory from Numera Analytics.

Source: Numera Analytics (@NumeraAnalytics)

 

Equities: Shares of regional banks continue to sink, deepening underperformance relative to the overall banking sector.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: The US still has too many banks.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Food for Thought: States with the highest interest from home searchers:

Source: @PaulinaCachero, @wealth

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Markets saw the “supercore” inflation slowdown as a positive sign.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: @boes_, @gutavsaraiva, @readep, @economics  Read full article

 

The 1-month T-bill yield surged well above the rest of the curve as the X-date looms.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Airline shares have sold off in recent days.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Credit: Bankruptcies are expected to surge.

Source: Piper Sandler

 

The Eurozone: The economic surprise differential with the US points to downside risks for the euro.

Source: Boris Kovacevic

 

China: State-owned companies have been outperforming.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Global Developments: Global services activity continues to diverge from manufacturing.

Source: Arcano Economics

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are Bloomberg’s terminal vs. non-terminal revenues:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 10th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment index hit a multi-year low last month.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The United Kingdom: Here is a summary of the local elections.

Source: @financialtimes

 

The Eurozone: Italy’s exports to China surged recently. This is mostly because of demand for a generic liver drug made in Italy that is rumored to prevent COVID-19, according to IIF. (2 charts)

Source: @RobinBrooksIIF
Source: @RobinBrooksIIF

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the third consecutive week of outflows.

Source: CoinShares

 

Energy: Largest US energy companies are sitting on a lot of cash.

Source: WSJ

 

Equities: The stock-bond correlation is moving deeper into negative territory.

Source: @WSJ

 

Credit: The Fed has never tested for a rate shock in the CCAR stress tests.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Food for Thought: Valuations of US sports franchises:

Source: Opto Monthly

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Banks continue to tighten lending standards. Here is the percentage of lenders tightening standards on loans to small companies.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @axios  Read full article

 

Canada: Canada’s banking sector has not experienced the declines in bank deposits seen in the US.

Source: Scotiabank Economics

 

China: Bank shares have been rallying.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: Credit tightening is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.

Source: @johnauthers, @opinion  Read full article

 

Equities: How do stocks perform after the Fed’s last hike?

Source: Oxford Economics

 

Europe: The Norwegian krone bounced from the lows after the rate hike. Will the rebound be sustained?

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia – Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged last month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are notable trends in US college enrollment rates:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 8th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Prime-age labor force participation has been surging, which in theory, should slow wage growth.

Source: Macrobond

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly tumbled in March, raising recession concerns.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WeberAlexander, @economics  Read full article

 

Asia-Pacific: AUD/USD has not kept up with the rise in industrial metal prices.

Source: Alpine Macro

 

Credit: Bank deposits declined further going into April month-end.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Foreign banks’ US dollar deposits saw the largest monthly decline since 2011.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Hedge fund clients haven’t been this bearish on stocks in at least a decade.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s equities have been under pressure ahead of the elections.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @financialtimes Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top prescription drugs in the US:

Source: @genuine_impact

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Wage growth is still too high to support a sustained drop in inflation.

Source: MRB Partners

 

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals topped expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The Eurozone: What are the drivers of weakening loan demand?

Source: TS Lombard

 

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with bitcoin roughly flat and XRP underperforming select crypto peers.

Source: FinViz

 

Commodities: Speculators increased their net-long gold positions as the precious metal outperforms the S&P 500.

Source: PGM Global

 

Energy: The remarkable decline in European natural gas prices continues.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: UPS package volume:

Source: @TheDailyShot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market is anticipating approximately 180 bps of rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Companies increasingly mention weak demand on earnings calls.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

The Eurozone: The ECB faces the dilemma of credit conditions tightening while core inflation remains well above target.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Emerging Markets: ZAR/USD (South African rand) experienced a deep drawdown despite its decent real carry versus the dollar.

Source: Variant Perception

 

Rates: The Treasury curve is steepening at the long end (bull steepener).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Gold jumped on Wednesday, nearing the high reached in 2020, as the Fed signaled a pause and the US dollar moved lower. Persistent turbulence in the US baking sector and the debt ceiling concerns are also driving prices higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid demand concerns.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are the months it took apps to reach 100 million users:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 3rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Voluntary resignations slowed further while layoffs increased.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Home prices unexpectedly jumped in April.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to contract.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw two consecutive weeks of outflows.

Source: CoinShares

 

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is trending lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The equal-weight S&P 500 index continues to underperform.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Manufacturing labor shortages:

Source: Goldman Sachs

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 2nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US manufacturing costs are rising again.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The federal government missed out on locking in low long-term rates in recent years, causing interest payments to surge.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

Equities: Equity implied volatility is too low, given elevated credit spreads.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: The Treasury bill curve remains distorted amid the debt ceiling “game of chicken.”

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ  Read full article

 

The Eurozone: Italian wage growth hit a multi-year high.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: Investors’ inflation expectations for Asia hit an eight-year low, according to a survey by BofA.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: New York sugar futures fell from an 11-year high on Monday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are AI-related publications in the US and China:

Source: @business  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – May 1st, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Personal saving as a share of disposable income is recovering.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The Eurozone avoided a recession in Q1, but growth was below forecasts.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Investment has been slowing.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s exports were 14% below last year’s levels in April.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: MarketWatch

 

Cryptocurrency: This chart shows El Salvador’s crypto remittances (funds denominated in crypto sent from abroad).

Source: @jp_koning

 

Equities: Earnings projections remain fairly optimistic.

Source: @FactSet

 

Food for Thought: Marriage rates in advanced economies:

Source: @TheDailyShot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.