Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the spread between the ISM orders and inventories (a forward-looking indicator) vs. the ISM composite index. The Eurozone: Businesses increasingly expect a slowdown in hiring. China: Government bond yields are falling. Rates: The shift into bond funds from equity funds continues. The net new …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 1st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The recent improvements in economic indicators suggest that deeper rate cuts are unlikely. The Eurozone: Ireland is getting hit by the combination of Europe’s recent industrial weakness and the Brexit uncertainty. China: Hong Kong’s Q2 GDP growth was weaker than expected. Rates: Cutting rates as an “insurance” …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Economists remain concerned about a slowdown in business investment. The Eurozone: Germany’s consumer inflation hit the lowest level since 2017. China: The July official manufacturing PMI ticked higher but remained below 50. Global Developments: This chart shows each central bank’s target rate in terms of the number of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 30th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Online searches related to industrial activity have been improving. The Eurozone: German recession risks are not insignificant. China: Here is Hong Kong’s opinion poll on the extradition bill. Global Developments: Speculative accounts are now net short the dollar in the futures market. Food for Thought: British views …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the divergence between labor productivity and employment over the past couple of decades. The gap is probably due to the technological advancements since the late 1990s. The United Kingdom: Borrowing by households continues to moderate. China: China’s services sector is offsetting the weakness in manufacturing. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Rental costs have far exceeded inflation in recent years The Eurozone: Mario Draghi disappointed the markets by not delivering a more immediate monetary ‘bazooka.’ The euro and bond yields rose in response. Emerging Markets: Despite some scary headlines (see story), Ukraine’s currency (the hryvnia) continues to rally. Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 24th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The federal government is boosting spending caps again. The Eurozone: Will loan growth slow over the next few months? China: The July World Economics SMI index shows tepid but stable growth in China’s factory activity. Sales growth registered improvement, but business confidence remains soft. Emerging Markets: TA …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the contributions to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the second-quarter GDP growth. The Eurozone: Financial conditions in the Eurozone have been easing. China: What makes the new STAR Market (see story) different? Below is a comment from Gavekal on the topic. Emerging Markets: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 22nd, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The charts below show consumer loan application rates (the percentage of households applying for loans) and rejection rates. The Eurozone: Germany’s stock market performance over the past fifteen years has been driven by dividends. China: Below is an illustration of China’s tech sector manufacturing supply chain. Global …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 19th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: The language in the Fed’s Beige Book has become less upbeat over time. Here is the count of words related to ‘trade’ and ‘uncertainty.’ The Eurozone: Will stronger wages finally push the Eurozone’s inflation higher? Credit: Who owns leveraged loans? Energy: US pipeline companies (MLPs) have been …
