The Daily Shot Brief – March 28th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The equity market anticipates accelerated US growth.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

The Eurozone: The labor hoarding index suggests that unit labor costs should ease in the months ahead.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Japan: Fundamentals point to gains ahead for the yen.

Source: BCA Research

 

Emerging Markets: Economists keep boosting forecasts for India’s GDP growth.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: The US inventory report was bearish, with crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rising last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Oil stockpiles jumped at Cushing, OK (the settlement hub for WTI futures).

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The Russell 2000 price performance has been lagging behind its relative EPS expectations.

Source: BCA Research

 

Food for Thought: The spike in credit card and other consumer loan rates:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 27th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index continues to indicate a slump in factory activity in the region.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Housing indicators continue to signal a rebound in home prices

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Europe: Here is a look at job openings across the EU.

Source: Eurostat

 

Cryptocurrency: Realized profits among long-term bitcoin holders approached peak levels last seen in 2021. This could encourage minor profit-taking around resistance levels.

Source: @glassnode

 

Commodities: Here is a look at how rate cuts impact commodity markets in a nonrecessionary environment.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook

 

Equities: Tech insiders have been selling.

Source: @financialtimes

 

Food for Thought: Trends in smoking prevalence in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 26th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Forecasters have increased their projections for the 2024 year-over-year CPI, partly due to rising energy prices.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The markets are also pricing in higher inflation this year. Here is the projection for the May CPI print.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Euro area credit demand is expected to turn around.

Source: TS Lombard

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin futures positioning reveals contrasting strategies between institutional investors, with their longer-term outlooks, and hedge funds.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Commodities: Cocoa futures keep surging leading to chaotic conditions in the market.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets   Read full article

 

Equities: US small caps remain more correlated to Treasuries than large caps.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Global Developments: Here is a look at how global short-term bond yields respond to data surprises (pre- and post-COVID).

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: Weather forecast accuracy:

Source: Our World in Data  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – March 23rd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Could strong corporate earnings accelerate hiring?

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog

 

The United Kingdom: UK retail sales experienced a slight increase last month, defying market expectations of a decline.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Asia-Pacific: Traders are extending their bets against the Aussie dollar.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Flows into gold funds have picked up.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: Here is a look at breadth by sector.

Source: @Sebaboyd, @business

 

Food for Thought: Trends in US high school graduation rates and SAT scores over time:

Source: The Economist

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 22nd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index held in growth mode this month, with new orders now growing.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Manufacturing activity has finally stabilized, with orders starting to grow.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The headline inflation climbed last month (year-over-year), but core inflation eased.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ

 

Commodities: Gold has been outpacing gold miners’ shares.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Momentum stocks continue to outperform.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Work from home by age group:

Source: The New York Times

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 21st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Markets are now viewing a rate cut in June as more likely.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Is there a risk that core inflation could remain persistently above 2%?

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: How did various sectors and equity factors react to the FOMC maintaining its forecast for three rate cuts? Highly correlated to Treasury prices, small caps had a good day.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: CMBS portfolios (commercial real estate debt) are experiencing higher delinquency rates.

Source: @bespokeinvest

 

Commodities: Gold hit a record high.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia – Pacific: New Zealand unexpectedly reported another technical recession.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @WSJ  Read full article

 

Food for Thought: Math assessment scores by race and ethnicity for US 8th-grade students:

Source: National Science Foundation

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Rent growth slows.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

The United Kingdom: Economists still hold a bleak outlook for UK growth this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Europe: Swiss watch exports softened last month amid weak demand from China.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @markets

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is now almost flat month-to-date.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Fund managers now see global corporate profits improving.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: China’s rapidly fading economic transparency:

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: In the housing market, sentiment among homebuilders is on the rise.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Wage inflation tends to drive labor productivity.

Source: BofA; @MikeZaccardi

 

The Eurozone: Fund managers have been increasing their allocations to Eurozone equities.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Japan: The BoJ finally exited its negative-rate policy and abandoned yield curve control.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC  Read full article

 

Equities: The S&P 500 price has been outpacing valuations (forward P/E ratio).

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.; h/t Morgan Stanley

 

Global Developments: Here is a look at equity markets’ beta to global manufacturing activity.

Source: Oxford Economics

 

Food for Thought: Share of global stock market capitalization by country over the past 50 years:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Market expectations for the Fed’s policy rate trajectory have moved up substantially since the last projections were published in December. Will the Fed’s new dot plot shift higher?

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Underlying inflation measures remain sticky, which could delay rate cuts.

Source: MRB Partners

 

The Eurozone: Here are the consensus estimates for GDP and inflation over time in the Eurozone and the US.

Source: Nomura Securities

 

China: Industrial output surprised to the upside.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Emerging Markets: India’s exports jumped last month.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Indian Express  Read full article

 

Equities: Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Food for Thought: Chip design and fabrication costs:

Source: @financialtimes  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Even with the rise in WARN notices, initial jobless claims remained close to multi-year lows last week, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Japanese investors have been dumping foreign stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Crypto fund inflows hit a record high.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: Iron ore futures continue to sink.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: WTI crude climbed above $80/bbl.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equity fund inflows have been exceptionally strong.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Food for Thought: Patent applications:

Source: @axios

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.