The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications held up well last week.

The Eurozone: Euro-area consumer inflation expectations rose more than expected last month.

Source: TheDailyShot 

Source: Bloomberg   Read full article

Japan: The rise in EUR/JPY in recent years boosted the value of German assets versus Japanese assets in yen terms.

Energy: Here is a look at US hydropower generation.

Alternatives: Private equity fundraising has slowed in 2025, with Q1 totals down 35% year-over-year and on pace for the weakest annual showing in nearly a decade. The decline reflects persistent headwinds from high borrowing costs, weak exits, and investor caution amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Equities: Excluding NVIDIA, the Magnificent 7’s year-over-year free cash flow growth has turned negative. The sharp rebound in 2023 was driven by cost-cutting and headcount reductions following the “metaverse” bloat, but that tailwind has faded as AI-driven CapEx ramps up, pressuring cash flows once more.

Food for Thought: Apple’s net sales by product category:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Job market sentiment remains weak, according to the labor differential.

The United Kingdom: May has been a more challenging month for retailers, according to the latest CBI report.

Japan: Department store sales softened in April.

Commodities: US soybean meal futures positioning has been increasingly bearish.

Equities: Stocks favored by retail investors surged.

Food for Thought: US barbecue sauce sales:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The US composite PMI from S&P Global signaled improved business activity this month.

Canada: Consumer sentiment keeps improving.

Japan: Compensation per employee has accelerated to its fastest pace since the early 1990s, diverging from the softer trend in labour cash earnings. This suggests underlying wage pressures remain firm, reinforcing signals of persistent services inflation.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto fund flows increased last week, pushing total AUM to record highs. (2 charts)

Source: CoinShares 

Source: CoinShares

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance data.

Equities: Key US indices ended last week back in negative territory year-to-date.

Food for Thought: US parcel delivery market share by company:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The 30-year bond yield climbed above 5%.

The United Kingdom: The official UK home price index showed annual appreciation exceeding 6% in March.

Emerging Markets: Indonesia’s central bank delivered another rate cut.

Cryptocurrency: BTC/USD surged to a record high and is not yet overbought based on its long-term price deviation.

Commodities: Platinum prices have been surging. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has raised its forecast for the 2025 supply deficit to 966,000 ounces, marking the third consecutive year of significant shortfalls. This is primarily due to a 13% year-over-year drop in global platinum production in Q1 2025, reaching its lowest level since mid-2020. South Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global supply, continues to face challenges such as power outages and operational disruptions.

Equities: Here is a snapshot of global equity market valuation

Food for Thought: Total transactions by major payment networks by year:

Edited by Abraham Lent

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Consensus recession odds are down.

Europe: Germany’s producer prices are back in deflation territory.

China: Hong Kong’s unemployment rate has been grinding higher.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin hit a new high.

Equities: The momentum factor continues to outperform.

Global Developments: According to Research Affiliates, government spending below 15% of GDP, which typically happens only in emerging economies, fails to support sustainable economic growth.

Food for Thought: Demographic trends of economics journal authors:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: According to Deutsche Bank, the US has the largest negative net international investment position in the world. This is driven by substantial foreign ownership of US assets amid high valuation of the dollar assets and the dollar itself.

Europe: Germany’s transition from a net electricity exporter to a net importer closely followed the completion of its nuclear phaseout, while France’s exports surged after recovering from widespread nuclear outages.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s household credit growth appears to be stabilizing.

Commodities: The largest gold ETF is seeing some outflows.

Equities: The Nasdaq’s trajectory following the release of ChatGPT continues to mirror the post-Netscape pattern, with similar gains through the first 617 days.

Rates: The X-date is projected to fall in late August or early September.

Food for Thought: Most in-demand AI job skills in the US in 2024 by number of postings:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The Augur high-frequency inflation tracker remains subdued for now.

China: Industrial production exceeded expectations, supported by base effects.

Europe: UK home price gains remain subdued.

Equities: On a long-term basis, the US equity-bond correlation has trended more positive since COVID.

Credit: European leveraged loans have staged a solid recovery this month.

Global Developments: Investor sentiment flipped sharply in May, with soft-landing expectations rebounding to 61%—their highest since early 2024—while hard-landing fears dropped to 26%, nearly halving from April.

Food for Thought: Auto imports into the US by manufacturer in 2024:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Prices for portfolio management and investment advice services fell sharply alongside stock prices.

Canada: Existing home sales were down for the fifth month in a row.

Europe: Germany’s DAX hit another record high.

Emerging Markets: Mexican stocks have been rallying.

Commodities: Here is a look at cumulative gold fund flows.

Equities: The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio is nearing 22x again.

Food for Thought: Gasoline prices in California vs. the US average:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US inflation has been surprising to the downside.

The United Kingdom: Wage growth has been stronger than expected.

Europe: Inflation expectations eased.

Japan: March household spending was stronger than expected.

Commodities: Cattle futures continue to surge.

Equities: The Nasdaq sentiment index is back in positive territory.

Food for Thought: Babies named Leo per year in the US since 1880:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields rose sharply in response to the tariff relief announcement.

Canada: The loonie stabilized at the 200-day moving average.

Europe: The market is now pricing less than two additional ECB rate cuts in 2025.

China: State-controlled institutions have been buying up equity ETFs to support the market.

Commodities: In recent months, gold ETF inflows have accelerated, with Asia emerging as a more prominent contributor alongside North America.

Equities: Stocks surged in response to the US-China tariff reduction agreement.

Food for Thought: Share of payments made by check in the US by age group:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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