Greetings, The United States: Here is how the US corporate tax rate compares to other economies when state taxes are included. Credit: With high-yield bond spreads at the lowest level in a decade, it’s hard to imagine that there is much upside in the sector. Energy Markets: Which oil producing nations are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Are investors ignoring the rising odds of the federal government shutdown this week? The probability in the betting markets is still below 30% but climbing. Credit: 2017 was a good year for investment-grade bond fund inflows. China: The Chinese renminbi is advancing against the dollar (strongest in two …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 16th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The Atlanta Fed wage tracker shows no evidence of US wages accelerating. Given the tight labor markets, this is not the outcome most economists have been expecting. Credit: As China spooked the bond markets on Wednesday, investors pulled a massive amount of capital from the largest HY ETF (HYG). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The inventories of single-family homes on the market keep dwindling. Credit: The Volcker Rule has damaged liquidity in the corporate bond market. Providing a loan to a company is fine but holding a corporate bond is “speculation”? Banks are in the business of assuming credit risk, no matter what …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Is the high job quits rate telling us that wage growth is about to accelerate (better give your workers a raise or they will quit)? Credit: Student loan delinquencies remain elevated. China: The stock market continues to climb. Bitcoin: The lower part of the next chart shows …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: There is a widening gap between consumer sentiment and the savings rate. In the past, this divergence was a precursor to the end of the economic cycle. Similarly, the disappearance of the output gap also indicates that we are in the late stage of the cycle. Credit: High-yield credit …
Greetings, The United States: The New York Fed’s Nowcast GDP projection model shows the 4th quarter (of 2017) GDP growth at almost 4% (annualized). It’s also projecting a very strong first quarter of this year. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model appears to be closer to reality at 2.7%. The GDPNow forecast is consistent with …
Greetings, The United States: Will the rising twin deficits (federal and trade) put downward pressure on the dollar? Credit: Leveraged loan funds’ AUM saw its first decline in months. China: Below is a forecast comparing China and India. Emerging Markets: Here is this year’s growth forecast across EM economies. Bitcoin: Merrill Lynch …
Greetings, The United States: The US will face significant demographic challenges in the years to come as the population growth stalls. That is why the Fed is projecting a sub-2% GDP expansion over the long run. The Eurozone: The euro has been climbing in tandem with the Eurozone growth expectations, as investors bet …
Greetings, The United States: What’s the impact of the new tax bill on the GDP growth over the next couple of years? Global Developments: The global manufacturing boom should send the world GDP growth to a multi-year high. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the real GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy, …
