Greetings, The United States: The US total labor income (defined below) is a leading indicator for consumer spending, and it accelerated last month. Equity Markets: Below is a scatter plot of PE ratios vs. Treasury yields. The United Kingdom: This chart shows the decline in EU citizens migrating to the UK. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The spread between Conference Board’s “Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get” indices points to a faster wage growth ahead. The voluntary quits rate tells a similar story. Equity Markets: US Q1 corporate earnings growth has outperformed that of other developed economies (EAFE). The United Kingdom: The UK’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Is the recent improvement in CapEx at risk now? Below we have some data from the NFIB (small businesses) as well as the Philly Fed. Equity Markets: The “M&A targets” basket has been outperforming. All that corporate cash has to go somewhere. The United Kingdom: The Bank of …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists are convinced that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, will reach the 2% target this year and move beyond that level over the next couple of years. Equity Markets: The US market typically trades sideways ahead of the mid-term elections. The United Kingdom: According …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This study shows the impact of tariff increases on the economy. Equity Markets: Is VIX being manipulated? Any index that relies on quotes rather than transactions is vulnerable. China: China’s new unemployment index is nearly as useless as the previous one. Energy Markets: The Brent options …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Higher gasoline prices more than offset the benefits of reduced income taxes for low-income Americans. Equity Markets: Corporate cash hits new highs. Will we see more stock buybacks? China: Household incomes are growing slower than the GDP. However, the “smoothed” official GDP may be overstated. Energy Markets: This …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Both soft- and hard-data US economic surprise indices have declined in recent months. Equity Markets: Below we have the recent S&P 500 revenue revisions vs. the 5-year range (by sector). China: Slowing credit expansion is one of the reasons economists are forecasting a weaker GDP growth. Energy …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Retail sales rebounded in March, returning to the recent trend. However, the “control group” retail sales (excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services) were disappointing (second chart). Equity Markets: How long before the start of a recession does the market experience the most amount pain? China: China’s manufacturing …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The massive US underinvestment in infrastructure continues. Equity Markets: The chart below shows the S&P 500 “sectoral dominance” over the past two decades. China: Luxury goods sales in China keep climbing. Energy Markets: This chart shows US oil production by state. Canada: Canada’s residential mortgage …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 13th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley also predicts that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure will hit 2%. Equity Markets: Will we see more pressure on IPO fees after the Spotify deal? Credit: The corporate debt service burden has not risen as much as the overall debt levels. Will the situation worsen as …
