The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2019

Greetings,   Equities: Investment newsletters have turned very bullish.   Rates: The relationship between one-month realized and implied volatility for 10-year Treasury futures has deviated from trend.   Emerging Markets: A large percentage of India’s labor force works in the “informal” economy.   The Eurozone: German consumers are worried about the economy.   The United …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2019

Greetings,   Rates: The probability of another rate cut this year dipped below 10% in response to the news of a potential US-China “interim” trade deal.   Equities: This chart shows inflation-adjusted earnings per share for the Russell 3000 (broad US market).   Energy: WTI crude oil usually rises when managed money short positioning is …

The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2019

Greetings,   United States: The upcycle in hotel revenue per available room (RevPar) is nearing an end.   The Eurozone: Executives remain gloomy about exports.   China: The charts below compare household balance sheets for China and the US. – Assets:   – Debt:   – Savings:   Emerging Markets: South Africa dodged the Moody’s downgrade bullet – for now. …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2019

Greetings,   United States: US consumers view the current environment as ideal for selling a house.   The Eurozone: Economists keep downgrading their euro-area 2020 growth forecasts.   China: The World Economics SMI indicators point to a rebound in business activity in October. Services:   Manufacturing:   Equities: Here is the put-call ratio for the …