The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US consumers are becoming concerned about the availability of credit.   Eurozone: Is the French manufacturing sector outperformance over?   China: Goldman’s employment growth tracker showed modest improvement recently.   Global Developments: The probability of a quarter with negative GDP growth is much higher these days than a couple of …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The gap between weekly working hours in cyclical and non-cyclical industries has widened since the trade war escalation.   Eurozone: Can the EU budget rules be amended to allow for more aggressive fiscal easing? According to Goldman Sachs, there is room for a more pragmatic interpretation of the existing regulations that …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Higher prices on durable goods (driven in part by tariffs) are weighing on buying conditions.   Eurozone: The ECB has been successful in lowering corporate borrowing costs.   China: Producer prices on consumer durables are declining, which is putting pressure on corporate profits.   Global Developments: Newsflow indicators look recessionary. Has the …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The trends in prime-age vs. total labor force participation continue to diverge.   Eurozone: Economists expect the ECB to lower its inflation forecasts. Here is an estimate from Pictet Wealth Management.   China: China eased its monetary policy by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and freeing up additional bank …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Analysts are concerned about weak business investment. Here is Morgan Stanley’s CapEx plans index.   Eurozone: Services should be accretive to the GDP growth over the next couple of quarters.   China: Here are China’s total external liabilities.   Food for Thought: International tourist arrivals:   Edited by Joseph N …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 2nd, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: This chart shows corporate profits as a percentage of the GDP.   Eurozone: Doves dominate the ECB’s Governing Council and are expected to deliver a “bazooka” stimulus package this month.   China: Goldman’s policy proxy index suggests that Beijing’s latest stimulus program has been more moderate than in 2015/16.     …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 30th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Consumers are less enthusiastic about purchasing a vehicle.   Eurozone: There is downside risk to Germany’s employment growth.   China: How sensitive are Asian currencies to movements in the renminbi?   Equities: August is typically a good month for share buybacks.   Food for Thought: Europe’s biggest beer producers:   Edited by …

The Daily Shot Brief – August 29th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The Federal government will be limited in its ability to stimulate the economy in the next recession because the fiscal policy is already extraordinarily loose. Given the current economic expansion, the level of government stimulus is unprecedented.   Eurozone: Will slower economic growth put pressure on bank lending?   China: …