The Daily Shot Brief – March 20th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The HPS-CS sentiment index shows households becoming concerned about personal finances.   The Eurozone: While the Eurozone’s GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US.   Equities: US equities have significantly outperformed global stocks in recent years (in part because of higher tech …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 19th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Tax refunds continue to lag last year’s trend.   The Eurozone: Here are the drivers of the Eurozone’s slowdown in exports   Equities: This year’s rally was not accompanied by cyclicals’ outperformance.   China: China’s weakening demand weighs on Japan’s exports.   Global Developments: Airfreight activity in Europe and Asia is …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: US hotel occupancy rates are showing some weakness recently.   The Eurozone: Non-performing loan percentages in the Eurozone periphery have been declining.   Equities: Margin debt as a percentage of the NYSE market cap is at the lowest level since 2014.   China: China’s prime-age population has peaked.   Food for Thought: Lebanon’s offshore exploration …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Small business sentiment eased this year.   The Eurozone: The ECB’s liftoff expectations have been pushed further out. The second chart below shows a forecast for the central bank’s policy rates (from Pictet Wealth Management).   Equities: Will margin growth deteriorate over the next couple of years?   China: Goldman’s market-implied …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The tax-driven corporate earnings repatriation (which boosted last year’s share buybacks) is over.   The Eurozone: French, Italian, and Spanish industrial production rebounded in January, exceeding economists’ forecasts.   Equities: VIX futures’ beta to the S&P 500 has been unusually low.   China: Large banks have been slashing their lending to …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 7th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Is the nation’s productivity growth about to slow?   The Eurozone: The ECB feels that it achieved its goal of monetary transmission (lower rates in the “real” economy). It also reduced fragmentation (dispersion of lending rates across the Eurozone).   Equities: While analysts have been downgrading their forecasts for this year’s revenues and …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 6th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Finally, here is Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast (by quarter).   The Eurozone: Is there more pain ahead for the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector?   Equities: This has been the longest bull market on record.   China: Below, we have some data on China’s household debt.   Global Developments: The growth in central banks’ aggregate …

The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Economists have consistently underestimated job growth in the US.   The Eurozone: Recession probability in the Eurozone has risen sharply.   Equities: Are US earnings growth expectations stabilizing?   China: These are China’s debt growth rates over the past three years.   Global Developments: The US consumer is responsible for a substantial portion of the …