The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Share prices of recruiting firms suggest that job openings may have stabilized in August.

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly jumped in July, boosted by large-scale items.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, leading some economists to advocate for a rate hike.

Energy: Oil volatility could rise in the event of a prolonged drop in prices.

Equities: The August jobs report will determine whether the Fed opts for a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut. Here is the short-term volatility curve.

Credit: Here’s an overview of credit markets’ yields and implied volatility, illustrating expected returns versus perceived risk.

Food for Thought: Legal status of sports betting:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: June construction spending was revised upward, making July the first monthly decline in 20 months (2 charts).

Canada: Household net worth remains significantly above the pre-COVID trend.

Emerging Markets: Manufacturing output rebounded.

Commodities: Here is a look at global leaders in mineral and metals production.

Equities: The rebound in the Nasdaq 100 Index lost momentum.

Credit: Office vacancies keep rising.

Food for Thought: Global trends in childhood malnourishment and obesity by gender:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Savings are shrinking, suggesting that consumption growth could slow in the months ahead.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals accelerated in July.

Japan: Speculators continue to hold net long bets on the yen.

Emerging Markets: India’s stocks have risen for 13 sessions in a row.

Credit: Corporate bonds, both investment grade and high yield, have posted gains for four consecutive months.

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have turned bearish on the US dollar.

Food for Thought: US plug-in hybrid sales:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Corporate profits hit a record high.

Canada: Most sectors and all provinces are in growth territory.

Japan: The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased in July, but the jobs-to-openings ratio edged higher.

China: China’s shrinking narrow money supply poses a threat to economic growth.

Equities: It’s been a rough month for tech megacaps relative to the broader market.

Rates: This has been one of the most anticipated Fed rate cut cycles.

Food for Thought: Life expectancy by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Refi applications are well above 2022 levels.

Commodities: September tends to be a strong month for gold.

Energy: US jet fuel stockpiles hit a record high last week.

China: China has made significant progress in combating pollution.

Equities: Shares of regional banks continue to lag behind large banks.

Global Developments: Manufacturers in advanced economies are once again struggling with high freight costs.

Food for Thought: Eroding democracies:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index showed improvement this month, topping estimates.

The United Kingdom: The pound has been rallying as gilt yields move higher.

China: Japan’s investment in China has been slowing.

Commodities: Gold hit an all-time high on Tuesday.

Equities: S&P 500 earnings growth has broadened outside of tech.

Credit: Munis have become cheaper relative to Treasuries in recent months.

Food for Thought: Spending on plant-based foods:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US durable goods orders surged in July, driven by strong aircraft orders.

Emerging Markets: Speculative BRL short positions appear stretched as BRL/USD tests support at the bottom-end of its trading range.

Commodities: Sugar futures are rebounding.

Energy: Brent crude prices surged amid uncertainty in the Middle East and oil field shutdowns in Libya.

Equities: Companies outside the Magnificent 7 are expected to contribute more to S&P 500 earnings per share over the next few quarters.

Credit: Leveraged loan funds are experiencing outflows as the Fed prepares for rate cuts.

Food for Thought: Dating apps active users:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: New home sales hit the highest level since 2020 in July.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s industrial production registered a pullback in July.

Emerging Markets: Speculative accounts are curtailing their peso carry trades.

Commodities: Speculators further boosted their bets on gold futures last week.

Equities: Corporate cash as a share of total assets has been trending lower, indicating that we could see a pullback in share buybacks.

Credit: HY bonds have performed well this year.

Food for Thought: Tesla’s Q2 performance:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the seasonally adjusted trends.

The United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment has leveled off.

Japan: BofA ‘s private clients have been exiting Japanese equities.

Equities: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone after a sharp drop from “greed” levels during the sell-off in risk assets.

Global Developments: Regional banks’ earnings estimates continue to lag behind those of the overall banking sector.

Food for Thought: Weekly area burned by wildfires:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications registered a pullback last week and refi activity eased.

However, we should see an improvement this week as mortgage rates move back below 6.5%.

The Eurozone: French business activity rebounded this month, boosted by the Paris Olympics.

Emerging Markets: Carry traders have been frustrated by the Mexican peso’s weakness.

Energy: US crude oil and refined product inventories declined last week, surprising to the downside.

Global Developments: The combined shift in relative rates plus the carry unwind explains sharp FX moves over the past few weeks.

Food for Thought: Seafood from aquaculture vs. wild catch:

Edited by William Villacis

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