The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Stronger tax withholdings could indicate more robust wage growth.

The United Kingdom: New car registrations improved but remained below 2023 levels last month.

India: Capital Economics expects rate cuts to begin next year.

Cryptocurrency: There was an unusual spike in BTC long positions as the cryptocurrency pulled back from all-time highs.

Equities: Small-cap fund inflows have surged this year.

Food for Thought: Streaming subscriber habits with pauses and returns across US platforms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: French stocks have not seen this level of underperformance since 2010.

Equities: US fund inflows are hitting extreme levels.

The scatterplot below illustrates forward earnings yield versus implied volatility for different equity factors, comparing expected performance with perceived risk.

Rates: JP Morgan’s clients are increasingly upbeat on Treasuries.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin surpassed the $100k milestone.

Energy: The global crude oil market will be well supplied next year.

The United States: The AEI Housing Center sees home price appreciation at 4.4% in October (YoY), strengthening somewhat in November and December.

Food for Thought: Mobile network speeds by country:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Hiring slowed.

China: The 10-year yield continues to hit record lows.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s factory activity remains in growth mode.

Energy: US natural gas futures have reversed most of the recent gains.

Equities: The Magnificent 7 stocks reached their 50th record high of the year.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield declined as markets pared expectations for rate cuts next year.

Food for Thought: The historical trajectory of child mortality rates across societies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: The French bond spread over Germany has blown out.

China: The renminbi reached its weakest level against the dollar in over a year.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s President Lula directed his team to include a range of tax relief measures for the poor in the fiscal package introduced late last week, diminishing the plan’s potential to generate much-needed savings. The Brazilian real hit a record low.

Commodities: Coffee futures took a hit as the Brazilian real reached a record low.

Equities: Only small caps are trading at multiples below their 10-year average.

Credit: Corporate debt trades have been massive, fueled by ETF flows.

Food for Thought: Ad content as a share of social media platforms:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The PCE inflation report showed faster price gains in October.

The United Kingdom: EUR/GBP hit the lowest level since early 2022.

China: Stocks are higher on stimulus hopes.

Commodities: US wheat prices remain under pressure.

Equities: Long-duration stocks have been outperforming.

Food for Thought: Median salaries by US government agency:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of credit-related comments increased.

The United Kingdom: The CBI report showed weakness in UK retail sales this month.

Cryptocurrency: BTC long-term holders’ realized the profit/loss ratio is at an extreme.

Equities: The forward P/E ratio climbed to 22.5x, indicating elevated valuations.

Rates: Options traders have been placing bearish bets on Treasuries.

Food for Thought: US women lead in college degree completion:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Canada: Trump’s latest tariff pledge sent the loonie tumbling.

The Eurozone: China’s slowdown has been a drag on the euro.

Equities: Market breadth has improved sharply in recent days. Here is the percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 20-day moving average.

Homebuilder shares surged on Monday as Treasury yields declined.

Emerging Markets: Many EM economies are increasingly dependent on US demand.

Commodities: Arabica coffee futures reached their highest level since 1997.

Food for Thought: Increasing stability in US county-level voting patterns (current year GOP % vs. previous year):

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Equities: Single-stock leveraged ETFs have been very popular.

Rates: Treasuries are seeing substantial fund outflows.

The United States: The strength of the US dollar has been weighing on export orders.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s department store sales fell below last year’s levels, marking the first year-over-year decline since early 2022.

The Eurozone: The ECB has expressed concern over deteriorating fiscal conditions in several economies.

Emerging Markets: Here is an overview of the IMF’s credit to the ten largest debtor nations.

Food for Thought: US power capacity mix:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s leading indicator declined again.

The United Kingdom: The slump in industrial orders eased somewhat this month.

Japan: Inflation eased last month.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is closing in on $100k.

Equities: US equity fund inflows have hit extreme levels this year.

Food for Thought: Annual deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is approaching $100k, boosted by massive volumes in the newly launched bitcoin ETF options.

Commodities: Gold is back at its 50-day moving average amid geopolitical risks.

Energy: US natural gas futures are higher as forecasts point to colder weather ahead.

Crude oil is higher this morning as Russia fires an ICBM.

Equities: Will we see a rotation out of tech into other sectors?

India: Indian stocks are moving deeper into correction territory.

Food for Thought: US federal government spending by category:

Edited by William Villacis

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