Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the CPI report, which showed no signs of inflation accelerating. The October headline CPI was a touch higher, with the increase driven by gasoline and medical care prices. The core CPI declined despite rising healthcare prices. United Kingdom: The market is pricing in a 33% chance of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2019”
Greetings, Equities: US value stocks are currently cheap relative to momentum stocks. Energy: Fitch expects overall demand for US natural gas to increase more than domestic consumption in the months ahead. Emerging Markets: The JP Morgan EM Currency Index is tumbling again. China: Beijing has been unwilling to sufficiently boost stimulus …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2019”
Greetings, Equities: Investment newsletters have turned very bullish. Rates: The relationship between one-month realized and implied volatility for 10-year Treasury futures has deviated from trend. Emerging Markets: A large percentage of India’s labor force works in the “informal” economy. The Eurozone: German consumers are worried about the economy. The United …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2019”
Greetings, China: China has further room to lower rates in order to stimulate mortgage lending. Europe: European savings rates climbed around the time the 10-year Bund yield went negative (not what central banks wanted to see). The United States: Consumer expectations remain bifurcated by political affiliation. Also, housing tends to have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2019”
Greetings, Rates: The probability of another rate cut this year dipped below 10% in response to the news of a potential US-China “interim” trade deal. Equities: This chart shows inflation-adjusted earnings per share for the Russell 3000 (broad US market). Energy: WTI crude oil usually rises when managed money short positioning is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The spread between the Conference Board’s and the U. Michigan’s present-conditions sentiment indices signals that we are in the late phase of the economic cycle. The United Kingdom: Here are some BoE policy rate scenarios from Capital Economics. China: Growth in construction starts peaked in mid-2018 and has been …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The housing shortage in the US is getting worse. The United Kingdom: Government spending is expected to increase, no matter who wins the elections. Europe: Yield curves across Europe continue to steepen. Here is the Bund curve vs. a month ago. Asia-Pacific: Foreigners increasingly control Japanese stock trading. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2019”
Greetings, United States: The upcycle in hotel revenue per available room (RevPar) is nearing an end. The Eurozone: Executives remain gloomy about exports. China: The charts below compare household balance sheets for China and the US. – Assets: – Debt: – Savings: Emerging Markets: South Africa dodged the Moody’s downgrade bullet – for now. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2019”
