The Daily Shot Brief – June 19th, 2019



The United States: Here, we have the case for and against rate cuts by the Fed (see chart below).

The case for:

• Manufacturing recession
• Tumbling inflation expectations
• The inverted yield curve
• A strong US dollar
• Global economic uncertainty

The case against:

• The stock market near records
• Elevated risk appetite (tight credit spread, etc.)
• Extremely low unemployment rate (below the longer-term sustainable levels)
• Improving global leading economic indicators
• Relatively stable underlying inflation rates

Source: BCA Research


The Eurozone: The latest ECB easing expectations boosted periphery nations’ credit. Below is Portugal’s credit default swap spread, which is now below 50 basis points.

Source: @TheTerminal


Equities: The news of Trump and Xi planning to have an ‘extended’ meeting at the G-20 sent stocks sharply higher. Here is the Dow Jones Industrials Average.

Source: @jsblokland, @TheTerminal


Global Developments: Lately, central banks around the world have only been cutting rates (no hikes).

Source: Capital Economics


Food for Thought: Building permits per 1000 people:

Source: Meyers Research


From our sponsor:

Edited by Joseph N Cohen


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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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