The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumer spending posted solid growth in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Rate cut expectations have been curtailed somewhat.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: Services inflation has been firmer.

Source: ING

 

Commodities: Here is October’s performance data.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Here are the details behind Thursday’s selloff.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US voter enthusiasm:

Source: Gallup

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: US job openings dropped sharply last month, falling below their pre-COVID peak.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: Last month’s mortgage approvals topped expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is trading near record highs, testing the next resistance level at $74k.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The market responded positively to Alphabet’s results, driving shares sharply higher after the close.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: @technology

 

Rates: Treasury market implied volatility keeps climbing ahead of the US elections.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Amazon deforestation:

Source: @BW

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2024

Greetings,

 

Equities: Investors are increasingly long on equity futures while also shifting to a net long position in VIX futures, which is unusual.

Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog  

 

The United States: Market-based inflation expectations should be heading lower with oil prices.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Commodities: So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: An improving credit impulse in the Eurozone could bolster economic expansion.

Source: BCA Research  

 

Credit: Cat bonds continue to outperform despite the recent hurricane damage.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin broke above resistance at $70k ahead of the US elections.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Food for Thought: GLP-1 drug candidates in the pipeline:

Source: The Economist   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The combination of rising bond yields and a stronger dollar has been tightening US financial conditions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Canada: The loonie’s 2-week implied volatility has surged in anticipation of the US elections.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: The resilient economy accounted for roughly half of the recent rise in Treasury yields, which caused markets to pare back large rate cut expectations. The other half is possibly due to election pricing.

Source: Russell Investments   Read full article  

 

Equities: Volatility premium (implied vs. realized) tends to rise ahead of the US presidential elections.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

China: Industrial profits softened further in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM equity funds are seeing some ouflows.

Source: BofA Global Research  

 

Commodities: Palladium jumped another 3% on Friday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Online casino revenue in New Jersey is closing in on land-based casinos:

Source: @technology   Read full article  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: The flash US manufacturing PMI from S&P Global held in contraction territory this month.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: UK manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory this month, according to S&P Global’s PMI report.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: China-focused equity funds are seeing outflows.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Commodities: Gold fund inflows surged in recent days.

Source: BofA Global Research

 

Equities: The S&P 500 has stayed above its 200-day moving average for 246 consecutive sessions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: The rise in fentanyl-related deaths shifts to the western US.

Source: @bpolitics

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Existing home sales remained at multi-year lows in September.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Emerging Markets: EM index correlations to China’s CSI 300 Index have collapsed.

Source: PGM Global  

 

Equities: Short interest in the US equity market has steadily declined throughout this month.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @SteamroomTrader  

 

Commodities: Here is the evolution of the Brent skew in recent days.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.  

 

Canada: The BoC delivered a 50 bps rate cut.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters   Read full article  

 

The Canadian economy is more sensitive to interest rates than the US, given its elevated household leverage.

Source: MRB Partners  

 

Global Developments: Bloomberg’s US dollar index is up 3% month-to-date.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Defense spending as a percentage of GDP in Europe for 2022 and 2024:

Source: Alpine Macro  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Some economists are expressing concerns about a potential rebound in inflation.

Source: Gavekal Research

 

The United Kingdom: The actual mortgage default rate remains historically low.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Japan: The yen continues to sink, with USD/JPY blasting past 152.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Iron ore continues to relinquish the gains driven by China’s stimulus measures.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: It’s also not consistent with tightening financial conditions.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: The 2024 US presidential election swing state polling trends:

Source: MUFG Securities

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 22nd, 2024

Greetings,

 

Rates: Treasury market implied volatility (MOVE) has diverged from realized Treasury vol.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research  

 

Emerging Markets: Local currency bonds are facing pressure amid the global bond rout.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Here are a couple of examples.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Germany is probably in recession.

Source: @economics   Read full article  

 

China: Clients are directing China’s domestic banks to sell foreign currency after massive foreign inflows into Chinese stocks, spurred by recent stimulus measures.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equity funds continue to see inflows.

Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook  

 

Food for Thought: Property losses from Helene and Milton:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi  

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 21st, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment showed some improvement this month.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters

 

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals and household credit have troughed.

Source: PGM Global

 

Cryptocurrency: South Korean retail investors’ demand for bitcoin has been soft.

Source: @crypto

 

Energy: US natural gas in storage remains above the 5-year average.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: The momentum factor has outperformed substantially this year.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Manufacturing share of employment by state:

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com




 

The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2024

Greetings,

 

The United States: Despite weak consumer sentiment, US household spending remains robust, with last month’s retail sales exceeding expectations.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: MarketWatch

 

Europe: Shares of European automakers continue to struggle.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Cryptocurrency: It has been a good week for cryptos with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Litecoin (LTC) outperforming top peers.

Source: FinViz

 

Commodities: Gold hit another record high and is now up 40% from a year ago.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Foreigners bought almost $65 billion of US equities in August.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US voter turnout by state in the 2020 presidential election:

Source: The Daily Shot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com