The Daily Shot Brief – April 30th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: At the national level, the World Economics SMI index shows robust business activity in April. Business confidence rebounded, and margins have stabilized.   Eurozone: Italian wage growth is slowing.   Equities: Profit margins have been moderating.   China: The dependency ratio vs. savings:   Global Developments: Speculative accounts have been boosting …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 25th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: Here we have the year-over-year changes in housing listings.   Eurozone: Credit/lending related online search activity has been improving.   Equities: The correlation between stocks and the Citi Economic Surprise Index has broken down.   China: This chart shows China’s two-way capital flows (resident vs. non-resident).   Global Developments: Here …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 24th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The correlation between the US and global leading indicators declined recently but remains highly elevated.   Europe: Here we have some data on Spain’s political spectrum.   Equities: Stocks and rate hike expectations have diverged.   China: Here we have the components of China’s current account.   Global Developments: Global economic …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 23rd, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The correlation between the US and global leading indicators declined recently but remains highly elevated.   The Eurozone: Germany’s housing market is booming again. The chart below shows housing valuations based on rents, income, and consumer prices.   Equities: Earnings growth expectations for Q1 have improved, but Q2 and Q3 …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 18th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: The multi-decade lows in the US jobless claims overstate the strength of the labor market. According to Capital Economics, many states have tightened their unemployment compensation requirements after 2008, reducing the number of Americans who qualify for these benefits. The Eurozone: Here are the shadow rates for the largest Eurozone economies. Italy’s …

The Daily Shot Brief – April 17th, 2019

Greetings,   The United States: When will the economic cycle peak? Here is a survey of investors and business executives. The Eurozone: Germany’s CapEx orders growth should bottom out as China’s economy rebounds.   Equities: Analysts’ forecasts for stock prices and earnings growth have diverged.   China: One of the drivers of China’s industrial rebound has been …