Author: The Daily Shot Editor

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The United States: The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has collapsed. Will we see any rate reductions at all this summer?

Equities: The rally has been partly driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, many of which are no longer anticipated.

Emerging Markets: Traders have been shorting dollar-denominated EM debt.

Canada: The BoC signaled a possible rate cut in June.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports surprised to the upside.

Commodities: Copper continues to rally.

Food for Thought: Property tax revenue per person, by state:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Which industries have the highest percentage of firms reporting job vacancies?

The United Kingdom: This chart presents the latest UK voting intention poll results.

Commodities: Central banks loaded up on gold after the recent Russia/Ukraine war.

Equities: The short end of the volatility curve inverted sharply ahead of the CPI report.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is holding long-term support within an uptrend.

Food for Thought: Rising retirement savings targets among Americans:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The Eurozone: Euro-area investor confidence continues to strengthen.

Commodities: Iron ore futures are attempting a rebound.

Holdings of gold and silver ETFs have diverged.

Energy: Global oil stockpiles have been shrinking, which could put upward pressure on prices.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s vehicle sales were up 44.5% relative to 2023 levels in March.

Food for Thought: Rising popularity of “.AI” domains in search trends compared to “.COM” domains:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: The unemployment rate declined.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is back in growth territory.

Japan: Short-term bond yields continue to climb.

Commodities: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on gold.

Equities: The options market signals rising complacency.

Food for Thought: Shifts in religious affiliation among US adults since childhood:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Morgan Stanley estimates that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in March.

The United Kingdom: New vehicle sales continue to run above last year’s levels.

Europe: Container shipping costs from Asia continue to trend lower.

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is above its 200-day moving average.

Equities: The ratio of RVX (Russell 2000 VIX-equivalent) to VIX is returning to more typical levels.

Food for Thought: Opioid overdose deaths by race/ethnicity:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: The ISM Services PMI fell short of expectations indicating slower consumer spending and weaker economic growth.

Europe: Swiss bond yields dropped as the market prices in more SNB rate cuts.

Asia – Pacific: South Korean banks could see a rebound in net interest income.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s core inflation exceeded 75% in March, leading to increased support for Erdogan’s opposition.

Lower inflation could pressure the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates.

Equities: Goldman sees share buybacks driving demand for stocks this year.

Food for Thought: The rise of TikTok for news:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Treasury yields have been trending higher.

The United Kingdom: Retail deposits are stabilizing.

Japan: The March PMI report indicated a deepening slump in Japan’s manufacturing export orders.

Cryptocurrency: Open interest in the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets continues to rise.

Commodities: Coffee futures are surging.

Equities: The Q1 earnings beats are expected to be close to their historical average, according to Deutsche Bank.

Food for Thought: The cost of selling homes in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI finally returned to growth in March, topping expectations.

This year’s gains in the Citi Economic Surprise Index have been driven by soft data (surveys).

The Eurozone: Deutsche Bank expects the ECB policy rate to drop to 2% by mid-2025.

Japan: Investors continue channeling capital into Japan-focused equity funds.

Emerging Markets: This chart shows the rate differentials (vs. USD) and implied volatility for select EM currencies.

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures are selling off.

Credit: The single-B – BB corporate spreads continue to tighten, singling increased risk appetite.

Food for Thought: US households’ financial asset allocation:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The February PCE inflation figure came in slightly below expectations (the chart shows monthly changes).

Equities: The S&P 500 equal weight index valuation (forward PE ratio) is now firmly above the ten-year average.

Canada: Toronto’s new home sales and housing starts remain depressed.

China: The official PMI reports topped expectations, with factory activity now back in growth mode.

Commodities: The copper market is in deep contango.

Credit: Here is credit asset performance during the first quarter.

Food for Thought: Maritime zones and airspace jurisdiction boundaries:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The equity market anticipates accelerated US growth.

The Eurozone: The labor hoarding index suggests that unit labor costs should ease in the months ahead.

Japan: Fundamentals point to gains ahead for the yen.

Emerging Markets: Economists keep boosting forecasts for India’s GDP growth.

Energy: The US inventory report was bearish, with crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rising last week.

Oil stockpiles jumped at Cushing, OK (the settlement hub for WTI futures).

Equities: The Russell 2000 price performance has been lagging behind its relative EPS expectations.

Food for Thought: The spike in credit card and other consumer loan rates:

Edited by William Villacis

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