Author: The Daily Shot Editor

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The United States: Markets are now viewing a rate cut in June as more likely.

Is there a risk that core inflation could remain persistently above 2%?

Equities: How did various sectors and equity factors react to the FOMC maintaining its forecast for three rate cuts? Highly correlated to Treasury prices, small caps had a good day.

Credit: CMBS portfolios (commercial real estate debt) are experiencing higher delinquency rates.

Commodities: Gold hit a record high.

Asia – Pacific: New Zealand unexpectedly reported another technical recession.

Food for Thought: Math assessment scores by race and ethnicity for US 8th-grade students:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Rent growth slows.

The United Kingdom: Economists still hold a bleak outlook for UK growth this year.

Europe: Swiss watch exports softened last month amid weak demand from China.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is now almost flat month-to-date.

Equities: Fund managers now see global corporate profits improving.

Food for Thought: China’s rapidly fading economic transparency:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: In the housing market, sentiment among homebuilders is on the rise.

Wage inflation tends to drive labor productivity.

The Eurozone: Fund managers have been increasing their allocations to Eurozone equities.

Japan: The BoJ finally exited its negative-rate policy and abandoned yield curve control.

Equities: The S&P 500 price has been outpacing valuations (forward P/E ratio).

Global Developments: Here is a look at equity markets’ beta to global manufacturing activity.

Food for Thought: Share of global stock market capitalization by country over the past 50 years:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Market expectations for the Fed’s policy rate trajectory have moved up substantially since the last projections were published in December. Will the Fed’s new dot plot shift higher?

Underlying inflation measures remain sticky, which could delay rate cuts.

The Eurozone: Here are the consensus estimates for GDP and inflation over time in the Eurozone and the US.

China: Industrial output surprised to the upside.

Emerging Markets: India’s exports jumped last month.

Equities: Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator.

Food for Thought: Chip design and fabrication costs:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Even with the rise in WARN notices, initial jobless claims remained close to multi-year lows last week, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

Japan: Japanese investors have been dumping foreign stocks.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto fund inflows hit a record high.

Commodities: Iron ore futures continue to sink.

Energy: WTI crude climbed above $80/bbl.

Equities: Equity fund inflows have been exceptionally strong.

Food for Thought: Patent applications:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: This chart outlines the components contributing to the monthly changes in core CPI.

Asia-Pacific: Asset managers have been boosting their bets against the Aussie dollar.

Emerging Markets: India’s bond yields are moving lower.

Cryptocurrency: Retail traders are not driving the Bitcoin rally.

Commodities: Gold performs well in a rate-cutting cycle.

Equities: Which sectors and equity factors contributed to market gains on the day the core CPI exceeded expectations?

Food for Thought: Most widely spoken languages vs. the most frequently used languages online:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Companies report that labor shortages are easing.

Europe: Dutch manufacturing production reversed much of the December surge, which was driven by one-off items.

Japan: The stock rally has been fading amid growing expectations for the BoJ tightening policy this spring.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin blasted past $70k, hitting a record high.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment index is in “stretched” territory.

S&P 500 earnings have outgrown nominal GDP by a large margin over the past decade (partially reflecting US companies’ global operations).

Food for Thought: Shift in political affiliation among US men aged 18-29:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: February’s job gains exceeded expectations, yet the underlying trends in the employment report indicate a softening labor market.

The United Kingdom: The employment PMI signals a contraction in permanent placements and temp agency billings.

China: The PPI remains in negative territory.

Cryptocurrency: There is an active market for Bitcoin call options with strikes near $100k.

Commodities: Traders are boosting their bets on hog futures.

Equities: ETFs that use options strategies have become very popular.

Food for Thought: Smartphone shipments:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% following Chair Powell’s hinting that the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in the deceleration of inflation trends.

China: Rail travel picked up relative to prior years during the recent holiday season.

Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes in bitcoin and meme tokens surged last week. (2 charts)

Energy: US LNG export capacity is expected to nearly double over the next few years.

Equities: The S&P 500 12-month forward P/E ratio is back above 21x.

Rates: Tighter liquidity will boost short-term rate volatility

Food for Thought: UFO hotspots:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s assets bounced after the news of a capital injection.

Rates: The copper-to-gold ratio suggests that Treasury yields should be lower.

Equities: While share buyback activity remains well below the levels seen last year when excluding Chevron’s massive buyback from the previous year’s data, the current figures align more closely with last year’s trend.

Global Developments: The dollar has been selling off, with the trade-weighted index back at its 50-day moving average.

The United States: Here is the Beveridge curve, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

The Eurozone: Germany’s trade surplus surged to new highs as exports jumped.

China: So far, raw material prices have not confirmed the rebound in Chinese equities.

Food for Thought: Projected job growth for top 10 occupations:

Edited by William Villacis

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