Greetings, The United States:Treasury bill investors remain uneasy about the debt ceiling. Whatever the case, US federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to grind higher over the next five years. Credit: Oil & Gas HY bond issuance is on the rise again. Equity Markets: This chart shows the number of IPOs with negative …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the productivity growth breakdown by sector. The Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey says that investors increasingly see policy errors driving the US into a recession as the top global economic risk. Credit: This chart shows the credit spreads of the largest municipal bond issuers. Equity …
Greetings, The United States: Economists are increasingly concerned about a fiscal “mishap” in the US. Credit: This chart shows bond market durations and yields for different asset classes. Investors have been taking quite a bit of risk for limited returns. Equity Markets: Implied volatility rose sharply in response to the North Korea …
Greetings, The United States: Unit labor costs in the US came in below consensus, suggesting that inflation should remain benign. The chart below shows the quarterly changes in labor costs (4-quarter moving average) trending lower. While slower growing unit labor costs should make the US workforce more competitive internationally, it’s hard to compete with …
Greetings, The United States: As car manufacturers pull the discounts, auto sales slip. Department stores have experienced severe deflationary pressures, which haven’t been as much of a problem for non-store retailers. Credit: This chart shows commercial property delinquency rates by sector in CMBS portfolios. Anchored retail (such as strip malls) now have the highest failure …
Greetings, The United States: US trade deficit excluding petroleum products hit a new record. Canada remains the biggest export destination for most states. Finally, here are the exports to China. This chart indicates which states will struggle the most in the case of a US-China trade war. Credit: The retail sector credit situation …
Greetings, The United States: The first estimate of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for the third quarter GDP is a whopping 4%. However, this estimate is likely to drift lower. Despite a strong labor market, US households are saving less than previously thought. The chart below shows the declining savings rate. The latest BEA …
Greetings, The United States: The Goldman Sachs wage tracker, which takes into account various earnings indicators, shows a meaningful slowdown as well. While younger workers saw their annual pay increases improve (on average), wages for those who are 55 and older are growing at the slowest pace in recent decades (light blue line). …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows quarterly residential investment growth. It’s important to note that residential investment impacts far more than just construction jobs. China: The Markit PMI report shows solid manufacturing sector growth in China. Equity Markets: The President’s tweets about the stock market have increased in frequency. Emerging …
Greetings, The United States: Credit card charge-off rates at banks have risen meaningfully this year. Bitcoin: Bitcoin is heading back toward record levels reached back in June. Equity Markets: Many industries are becoming concentrated as the largest firms gain revenue share. Emerging Markets: The Russian ruble isn’t benefitting from the rally in …
