The United States: This chart shows Morgan Stanley’s GDP forecast for the next couple of years (including the GDP components).
China: China’s official export figures have diverged from those reported by its trading partners
The Eurozone: Exports have been weakening at the Eurozone level as well (and diverging from the global trend).
Global Developments: How do asset prices around the world react to the US-China trade tensions? The second chart below shows BlackRock’s newsflow-based risk index of the US-China relations (BGRI).
Equities: Analysts have downgraded (slightly) the 2019 earnings growth forecast, but it remains near 9%.
Emerging Markets: Morgan Stanley is forecasting the EM-US economic growth differential to widen again (EM to outperform the US). Will EM currencies follow?
Food for Thought: “Which country would you like to live in (besides your own)?”
Edited by Joseph Cohen
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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.
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