The Daily Shot Brief – March 18th, 2021



United States: The Fed held the line on its dovish stance, showing no signs of potential policy adjustments in the near-term. A few more FOMC members boosted their rate projections for 2022 and 2023, …

Source: Mizuho Securities USA

… but the bulk of the Committee expects rates to stay near zero. Here is the dot plot.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.


Europe: Longer-dated Bund yields are grinding higher.

Source: The Daily Shot


Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank hiked rates by 75 bps (the market expected 50 bps). More hikes are on the way.

Source: The Daily Shot

Due to reliance on floating-rate bonds, the government’s debt costs will rise rapidly as the central bank hikes.

Source: @SergiLanauIIF


Energy: Deutsche Bank estimates an $80 WTI oil price by the end of the year.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Equities: VIX is now firmly below 20 in response to the Fed’s dovish stance.

Source: The Daily Shot


Food For Thought: The US budget surplus/deficit since 1855:

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Edited by Daniel Moskovits

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