Greetings, The United States: Here is Nomura’s forecast for the December CPI report (month-over-month). China: Is China facing deflationary risks as demand slows? The Eurozone: Household savings rate: Credit: Here is the 2018 US corporate debt performance chart. Emerging Markets: Non-residents’ share of local EM government debt has been drifting lower since …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The current economic expansion is on track to become the longest on record. China: Residential building activity should remain robust amid lower inventories. The Eurozone: Will we see a sharp decline in French industrial production as well? Credit: Investment-grade debt continues to underperform high-yield. The chart below compares spread …
Greetings, The United States: Economists and the market expect a slowdown in inflation after last year’s decline in crude oil. However, core inflation should remain around the Fed’s target of 2% as wage growth picks up. China: While the nation’s shadow finance activity continues to shrink, China’s monetary easing should support yuan-denominated lending. …
Greetings, The United States: We have some updates on the housing market. • Despite a slowdown in residential construction, labor shortages persist. China: Does the slowdown in Taiwan’s factory activity point to further weakness in China’s manufacturing? The Eurozone: The number of unemployed Germans hit another multi-year low. Credit: Growth in BBB bonds has …
Greetings, The United States: Surveys continue to suggest that US small businesses remain upbeat. Here is an example. China: This chart shows Chinese imports by origin. The Eurozone: Given the sharp slowdown in the Eurozone’s economic activity measures, the ECB’s timing to end its quantitative easing program was less than ideal. Credit: It’s …
Greetings, The United States: Here is Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator for the US. China: Corporate revenues and margins worsened in the fourth quarter of 2018. CapEx slowed. The Eurozone: Italy’s manufacturing orders have declined for five months in a row, keeping factory output in contraction territory. Credit: 2018 set a record for syndicated …
Greetings, The United States: As a result of tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and soft economic data, markets are now pricing in an 89% probability that the Fed will not hike rates this year (and may even lower them). Note that the FOMC is forecasting two rate increases. The Fed’s rate trajectory will …
