From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Jobless claims hit another multi-year low for this time of the year and are firmly below pre-COVID levels. The labor market strength continues to top expectations. The terminal rate, also called the peak fed funds rate, continues to climb as the market expects the Federal Reserve to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 4th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: The fed funds rate terminal rate is now expected to peak above 5% in May. The October gains in the ADP private payrolls report topped forecasts. Equities: The market reaction to Chair Powell’s press conference was severe. It was not the “pivot” markets wanted to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 3rd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: The Fed would like to see the job openings-to-unemployment ratio closer to pre-COVID levels, but it’s not budging for now. This does not look like a signal to “pivot”. The decline in export orders accelerated, partially driven by the US dollar strength. The United Kingdom: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: The debt ceiling could be hit as early as February. Will the US repeat the 2011 impasse that resulted in a downgrade? As we saw in the UK, the markets these days have limited tolerance for fiscal uncertainty. The United Kingdom: How will the markets …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Household consumption remains resilient despite the headwinds, with spending rising again in September. Robust spending means more hikes from the Fed and rates remaining higher for longer. Economists now see the terminal rate at 5%. The Eurozone: A large portion of the euro’s decline has been driven by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, the third-quarter GDP growth was a bit better than expected, with a decline in imports boosting net exports. Soft-data (survey-based) economic surprises are turning lower, which will be showing up in hard-data surprises in the months ahead. The United Kingdom: The “Truss premium” on mortgage rates remains elevated. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, consumer awareness of inflation news is very high, which could keep inflation elevated. There is a lot of talk about the Fed’s “pivot” (especially after the BoC’s dovish hike). Equities: Short-term options activity has exploded, boosting gamma spikes and exacerbating market moves. China: Semiconductors are now China’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 27th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Supply issues are over, amid falling demand. Here’s how US pandemic-era home price appreciation compares to other advanced economies. The United Kingdom: Corporate bankruptcies have been rising. Stock valuations remain near record lows relative to global peers. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s inflation report surprised to the upside. Commodities: Prepare to pay …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, households’ real excess savings remain elevated. The United Kingdom: Quantitative tightening is about to start in the UK. The Eurozone: The market is pricing in a 75 bps ECB rate hike this week. Equities: Earnings momentum has been negative for all S&P 500 sectors except energy. However, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2022”
Greetings, China: President Xi Jinping has secured a third term with an inner circle of allies. The markets are nervous about his new grip on power. Stocks are down sharply. Japan: Japan intervened in the currency markets again after dollar-yen crossed 150. The United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak is likely the next PM. Gilts surged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2022”
