Greetings, The United States: Here is an estimate of job losses by state if the US withdraws from NAFTA. The Eurozone: The Eurozone service sector activity has accelerated in January. Here is the composite PMI (fastest expansion in over a decade). Italy’s business output has been especially strong. Equity Markets: Over …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is an overview of the US trade with China. Some analysts believe that China’s massive surplus with the US will make a significant retaliation against US trade restrictions less likely. Europe: Sweden’s manufacturing expansion is slowing. Will this weakness also show up in the Eurozone this year? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: In the near-term, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting 5.4% for Q1. Right. The Eurozone: The Eurozone manufacturing activity remains near multi-year highs. Price pressures are picking up (which is giving the euro a boost). Is the ECB paying attention? Equity Markets: Sales growth at restaurants continues …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Economists are predicting a further decline in the household savings rate as stocks and home prices boost the wealth effect. It’s worth noting that many Americans who are unable to save are not the ones who benefit from the wealth effect. The Eurozone: Exports were a big component …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will incomes rise sufficiently to justify the brisk consumer spending? Will it happen before higher interest rates make consumer debt much more expensive? Separately, consumer spending on pleasure boats, aircraft, and other recreational vehicles is rising at the fastest pace since 2005. Is it the wealth effect? The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 31st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the GDP forecast for the next couple of years from Morgan Stanley (that Q4 projection didn’t work out well). Economists expect consumption growth to slow as a result of the lowest savings rate in a decade. The Eurozone: The euro area broad unemployment rate (U6, which …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the strength in consumer spending persist going forward? While economists expect consumption to remain strong this year (helped in part by the new tax bill), it’s hard to see the US consumer staying this enthusiastic for too long. That’s because the savings rate as a percentage of disposable …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to predict an acceleration in US wages. The Eurozone: German business climate keeps improving. However, there is a widening gap between the current conditions and business expectations. The second set of charts below shows the sector breakdown. Equity Markets: Analysts continue to raise concerns about …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The January Markit PMI report on US business activity shows some divergence between manufacturing and services. The Eurozone: There are signs of higher inflation down the road. • The price component of the PMI report: • The PMI “delivery times” index: Equity Markets: Pension funds keep reallocating out of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Companies increasingly consider the US to be the top market for growth prospects. Bitcoin: Will more crypto exchanges be hacked this year? Equity Markets: It has been a phenomenal start of the year for stocks globally. Credit: The volume of unitranche loans hit a new high last quarter. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2018”
