Greetings, The United States: What are the risks for the US economy a couple of years from now? The Eurozone: This chart shows the ECB’s bond purchase deviations from the capital key weights. Rates: The voting FOMC members are a bit more hawkish this year. Equity Markets: The S&P 500 has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Consumer loan rates have diverged, with credit cards outpacing other types of debt. Can the auto industry withstand significantly higher car loan rates? The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s export growth slumps. Rates: This chart shows the Fed’s policy rate trajectory implied by the Treasury curve. Equity Markets: Fund …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Here is an example of the skills gap that has been persistent across the US. The table below shows job openings divided by the number of job searches. These are some of the professions where wages have been improving. The Eurozone: Below are the components of the first-quarter GDP …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 7th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The news flow index which measures trade policy risks remains elevated. The Eurozone: Spain showed a surprising spike in industrial production (although these data can be quite volatile). Rates: US government bond ETFs continue to see inflows. Equity Markets: Mutual funds that focus on US equities are still …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Here is Goldman’s Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for the US. The Eurozone: There is still a deficit of new Eurozone bonds in the domestic private debt market. Rates: Swap spreads continue to recover (more on the topic later). Here is a note from Jim Vogel (FTN Financial). Swap spreads are …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US housing affordability is worsening as a result of higher mortgage rates and housing prices. And there is a good chance that affordability will deteriorate further. Here is one such scenario. The Eurozone: The Spanish and Italian bond trading activity spiked in May. Rates: The market will get …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: With all the robust economic data coming out last week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q2 growth forecast climbed further. The Eurozone: The market-based ECB’s rate trajectory has shifted lower after the political jitters in Italy. Rates: The repo volume is climbing again. Equity Markets: May saw inflows …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: We should see a strong bounce in the ISM manufacturing index which comes out later today. Here is a comparison of the May regional Fed surveys (weighted average) with the ISM index. The Eurozone: Does the Fed-ECB balance sheet differential point to a bounce in the euro? Rates: …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 31st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Below is a summary of the regional Fed survey changes in May (GSAI = Goldman Sachs Activity Indicator). The ISM’s national manufacturing index will show a bounce this month (reported June 1st). The Eurozone: The banking system’s persistent exposure to government debt (linking financial and sovereign risks) worries investors. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 30th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The aging population continues to be a drag on labor force participation. The Eurozone: There is plenty of silly talk about “Itexit” on social media. Not only would Italy’s €2 trillion+ debt be redenominated (effectively default) in such an event (devastating the global banking system), but the rest of the …
