Greetings, The United States: A significant portion of this year’s GDP growth is due to the federal government stimulus. But the party ends in 2020. The Eurozone: The ECB didn’t provide much new information regarding policy direction. Here are some updates. • The ECB balance sheet forecast from UBS: Average life of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% GDP growth for the second quarter. Massive soybean exports ahead of China’s retaliatory tariffs boosted net exports (light blue). The Eurozone: Germany’s Ifo business climate index showed increasing uncertainty. The spread between the current situation measure and business expectations continues to widen. The biggest …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: We haven’t seen these levels of labor market tightness and strong demand conditions since the late 1990s (right before the recession). China: Beijing made it clear that it will work to boost growth in response to the rising risks to the economy. With shadow banking expansion presumably under control, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Oxford Economics is forecasting 4.5% GDP growth for Q2 (annualized), with expansion moderating in the second half of the year. The soft-hard data divergence persists. One of the contributors to the outsized GDP growth in Q2 was a sharp increase in soybean exports ahead of the tariffs. China: Foreign …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The last time we had so few Americans filing for unemployment was in 1969. Layoffs remain rare amid tight labor markets. China: Are China’s stocks attractive at this point? Global Developments: Who owns each nation’s government debt? This chart shows government bond yields globally (as well as the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Commercial freight activity is off the highs but remains elevated. Freight spending is still climbing as shipping companies boost prices. China: Despite the currency weakness, the implied volatility has been relatively subdued. Rates: How did the dollar respond to rate hikes in the past? Equity Markets: Growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The majority of fund managers expect the next recession to begin in the second half of next year or the first half of 2020. China: China’s new home price increases have accelerated (see chart). Existing home prices are lagging. Global Developments: Which nations have the worst restrictions on …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The U. Michigan business conditions index suggests moderation in business activity. Below, the U.Michigan’s indicator is compared with the ISM composite index. China: China’s consumer is becoming a greater component of the GDP growth. But is consumption overstated? Global Developments: Surveys point to robust investment growth across advanced …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Consumers are becoming uneasy about car purchases. China: Loan growth remains robust. The total credit (TSF) expansion has slowed but is still massive. Global Developments: Speculators continue to boost their bets on the dollar. Equity Markets: Where are US stocks traded? Emerging Markets: Venezuela’s refineries are …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to forecast productivity improvements as business investment grows. China: Here is Fathom’s China economic momentum indicator. Global Developments: The global inflation news flow index remains elevated. Equity Markets: Trading volumes are up this year. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central bank is keeping its benchmark rate at 40%. …
