Greetings, Equities: This scatterplot shows the average earnings surprise for Q2 vs. the year-over-year earnings growth rate (by sector). Rates: SOMA securities purchases over time: Will slower growth in the Fed’s balance sheet boost the dollar? Emerging Markets: Which bonds are most vulnerable to global inflation? United States: Many homeowners …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 24th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: The stock market is increasingly pricing in higher corporate taxes as the US elections approach. The underperformance of companies with the highest median tax rates has accelerated. Will volatility start to rise ahead of the US elections? Credit: Leverage (debt-to-EBITDA) has risen sharply this year. Energy: Brent contango (1st chart) …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 21st, 2020
Greetings, United States: After four weeks of declines, initial unemployment claims rose last week. China: The yield curve has flattened considerably since May. The PBoC has kept liquidity relatively tight and resisted lowering short-term rates. Energy: The US oil futures curve is in contango. And the time spread (price between contracts) should …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 20th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The US dollar bounced from the lows after the Fed minutes were released. Some have suggested that the market response was due to the Fed’s rejection of yield-curve control as a policy tool. It is used by several central banks, notably the BoJ. Here is how stock futures reacted to a stronger dollar. The …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 19th, 2020
Greetings, United States: This chart shows consumer debt changes in the first half of 2019 and 2020 (significant reductions in credit card debt). Europe: Job losses due to corporate restructuring have been substantial. Also, the Swiss Franc remains negatively correlated with markets that signal risk-on, such as equities and yields/curve. Energy: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 18th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Will another CARES package thrust the nation’s budget deficit to a new record? Search activity trends for rentals vs. real estate listings have diverged. Moreover, many of the rental searches are for single-family homes in the suburbs. Eurozone: Economists are concerned that the rebound is stalling as high-frequency indicators flatten …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 17th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The rebound in retail sales has been impressive, but economists are concerned about the overall consumption growth. The charts below show high-frequency spending data Eurozone: The Q2 GDP contraction was unprecedented in recent history. Pantheon Macroeconomics and other economists expect a much slower recovery than the ECB’s estimates. Commodities: Speculative …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 14th, 2020
Dear Friends, The full-length Daily Shot® is now an independent ad-free publication (see TheDailyShot.com). Here is a sample newsletter. Daily Shot Brief subscribers are eligible to receive the full-length Daily Shot for $115/year (a $20 discount). To subscribe, please register here and use the coupon number DSB329075 (please click the “apply” button for the discount …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 13th, 2020
Dear Friends, The full-length Daily Shot® is now an independent ad-free publication (see TheDailyShot.com). Here is a sample newsletter. Daily Shot Brief subscribers are eligible to receive the full-length Daily Shot for $115/year (a $20 discount). To subscribe, please register here and use the coupon number DSB329075 (please click the “apply” button for the discount …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 12th, 2020
Dear Friends, The full-length Daily Shot® is now an independent ad-free publication (see TheDailyShot.com). Here is a sample newsletter. Daily Shot Brief subscribers are eligible to receive the full-length Daily Shot for $115/year (a $20 discount). To subscribe, please register here and use the coupon number DSB329075 (please click the “apply” button for the discount …
