Greetings, United States: The ISM Services PMI surged in March, hitting a record high. Here is the attribution. Canada: The BOC’s ownership of shorter-maturity bonds is approaching 50% of outstanding. Emerging Markets: New COVID cases in India hit a record high. Nonetheless, factory growth held up well last month. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The US economy is heating up as the job market strengthens. The March headline payrolls report topped economists’ forecast. While hiring was robust last month, it should be noted that the upside surprise was mostly due to seasonal adjustments – see the comment from Mizuho Securities below. United Kingdom: Long-term …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. The next Daily Shot will be out on Monday, April 5th. If you are unsure whether The Daily Shot was published on a particular date, you can check online at TheDailyShot.com or on the administrative updates page. United States: …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 31st, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Only four FOMC members expect a rate hike (liftoff) next year. However, the market continues to assign close to an 80% probability of liftoff in 2022. It’s important to note that the Fed …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 30th, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Here is a summary of price indices for all the regional manufacturing reports. The spread between indices of prices paid and prices charged keeps widening. Without further boosting output prices, some manufacturers could …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 29th, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: The updated U. Michigan consumer sentiment index improved further in the second half of the month. Eurozone: Investors have soured on the euro. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin funds continue to see outflows. Technicals suggest …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 26th, 2021
Greetings, Canada: Just like in the US, residential investment surged last year. Eurozone: Households are sitting on massive savings. This chart shows the contributions to investment since 2005. China: State-owned firms have cut back their borrowing. Onshore corporate bond defaults surged this year. Cryptocurrency: The largest Bitcoin fund is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 25th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Short-term market-based inflation expectations are pricing in 2.1-2.3% core PCE inflation one and two years ahead. Adjusted for COVID-related changes in spending patterns, the CPI is substantially higher. United Kingdom: Oxford Economics expects the pound to strengthen over the next few years. China: Stocks continue to underperform. Renewed talk of …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 24th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Unlike other survey-based indicators, the World Economics SMI points to lackluster growth in US business activity. United Kingdom: This chart shows the composition of UK consumer spending. Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s government is taking measures to cool the housing market. As a result, the RBNZ is expected to be …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 23rd, 2021
Greetings, United States: Existing home sales declined last month due to the deep freeze in parts of the country as well as collapsing housing inventories. The housing market weakness in February is expected to be temporary. Here is a comment from Moody’s Analytics. It took severe winter storms across many parts of the …
