Greetings, United States: Capital Economics does not see the Fed slowing rate hikes in 2023. This forecast diverges from market expectations. United Kingdom: UK hospitalization data suggest that omicron may be less dangerous than previous COVID variants. China: China has captured the vast majority of the post-pandemic increase in global trade. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 23rd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published the week of December 27th. Energy: The European energy crisis continues to worsen as temperatures fall and Russia shuts off flows of natural gas. Natural gas prices have gone vertical, jumping by over 20% in one day. Europe competes with …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published the week of December 27th. United States: The Conference Board’s leading index continues to point to robust economic activity ahead. Falling unemployment claims have been the key driver of this indicator over the past couple of months. Eurozone: More euro-area firms …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 21st, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published the week of December 27th. Equities: Last week, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it will be rapidly removing monetary stimulus next year. Now the fiscal spigot is getting shut off as well. Stock futures are heavy this morning. Credit: Real estate …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 20th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The market is still doubting the FOMC’s dot plot. Shorter and intermediate-maturity Treasury yields declined and the curve steepened. Emerging Markets: The Turkish central bank cut rates again, sending the lira past 16 to the dollar. Is the easing cycle over? Equities: Investors have been rotating out of cyclical …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 17th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The FOMC delivered a widely anticipated hawkish shift to tackle surging prices. As expected, the central bank will double the pace of taper. That change opens the possibility of a rate hike as early as March. The market now sees even odds of such an outcome. The FOMC boosted its …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 16th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Physical store sales surged this year, with gains outpacing online stores. Canada: Household leverage is now substantially higher than in the US. One caveat is that Canada’s disposable income is more “disposable” than that of US households (due to healthcare expenses in the US). United Kingdom: Business closures accelerated …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: One-year consumer inflation expectations continue to surge, but the three-year indicator seems to have peaked. Households expect to boost their spending substantially next year. United Kingdom: The odds of a BoE rate hike this year have collapsed below 20% amid omicron jitters. In contrast, the Fed is becoming …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Traders were concerned about another upside inflation surprise, but the November CPI report was roughly in line with expectations. That’s why stocks and bonds rallied despite a multi-decade high CPI print. Here’s the breakdown of goods vs. services: China: The renminbi has diverged from equity prices. Emerging Markets: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 13th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The 2-year Treasury yield climbed above 0.7% as traders bet on a more hawkish Fed policy. The market is now nearly certain that we will see three rate hikes next year. Eurozone: COVID cases appear to have peaked in Germany, … … but the number of patients in intensive care …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2021”
