Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United States: Unemployment claims continue to signal tightness in the labor market. Initial applications for jobless benefits hit a multi-year low for this time of the year.

Housing starts registered their first annual decline since 2009.

Europe: European stocks had a strong start to the year as fund flows turned positive.

China: The housing market is primed for a bounce.

Credit: Default probabilities have been rising in some sectors.

Energy: US oil stockpiles continue to rise.

US natural gas is nearing $3/mmbtu.

Food for Thought: To end the week, here is the population of India’s states compared with different countries:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Economic activity in the US has taken a marked downturn. December retail sales surprised to the downside.

The United Kingdom: The RICS housing market index tumbled last month, surprising to the downside.

Emerging Markets: Global investors have been rotating into EM stocks.

Equities: Here is a look at relative factor valuations.

Market focus has shifted from inflation to recession, with the stock-bond correlation turning negative.

Rates: US bond fund inflows surged last week.

Japan: Foreigners have been dumping JGBs.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is an illustration of nuclear fusion:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The first manufacturing report of the month was a disaster. The NY Fed’s regional factory activity index dipped to the 2008 lows.

Financial conditions continue to ease, frustrating Fed officials. This index is a Z-score tracking the overall level of financial stress in the U.S. money, bond, and equity markets to help assess the availability and cost of credit.

The Eurozone: Germany’s economic sentiment is rebounding rapidly.

Japan: The BoJ is not budging on yield control. Here is the market reaction.

Commodities: The rally in gold has been too fast relative to the dollar’s decline.

Equities: Financials dragged the Dow lower on Tuesday.

Global Developments: We have some home price indices and valuations.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the best and worst-performing hard commodities in 2022.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The U. Michigan’s 1-year consumer inflation expectations declined further, but longer-term inflation projections edged up.

The fiscal and financial conditions drag on growth will ease this year.

The Eurozone: For the first time in a year, economists upgraded the Eurozone GDP forecast as the energy crisis eases.

Energy: European natural gas prices continue to tumble amid elevated inventories.

China: Elevated savings could generate a spending boom this year.

Credit: It’s been a good few days for European corporate bond sales.

Commodities: Iron ore futures declined as Beijing cracks down on rising prices.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the deadliest places for journalists:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Here are the contributions to the -0.1% CPI decline in December.

Cryptocurrencies: Cryptos started the year on a strong note.

Commodities: Iron ore continues to surge on China’s reopening.

Energy: China is importing “rebranded” Russian oil.

Equities: Meme stocks are soaring.

Credit: This scatterplot shows the fixed-income universe risk/reward profile (risk = correlation to the S&P 500, reward = yield).

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the 15 largest employers in the world.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Here are new home sales vs. houses under construction.

The yield curve inversion deepened this week.

Japan: The dam is about to break. The BoJ’s battle with the markets is becoming too costly, as the central bank buys massive amounts of JGBs.

Meanwhile, inflation is accelerating.

Equities: US small-caps appear attractively valued, but depressed small business sentiment poses downside risks.

Energy: US crude oil inventories jumped last week.

Global Developments: Global inflation continues to slow.

Food for Thought: Here is the share of global goods exports by region:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wholesale used vehicle prices are down almost 15% from a year ago.

Weaker fertilizer prices signal lower food inflation ahead.

Europe: Are outflows from European equity funds over?

Cryptocurrency: Investors are betting that the GBTC discount to NAV will narrow.

Commodities: Palladium has not participated in the precious metals rally.

Equities: The S&P 500 will face resistance near 4,000.

Global Developments: The market is sitting on significant USD cash exposure, which is vulnerable to further liquidation as the dollar’s safe-haven appeal declines, according to Deutsche Bank.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the global Lorenz Curve.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Total consumer credit is now above the pre-COVID trend.

In the labor market, job gains have been the highest in sectors that experienced the biggest COVID-shock losses.

Equities: US shares with higher international sales have been outperforming as the dollar weakens and China reopens.

Credit: The largest HY ETF saw a hefty capital inflow last week.

Emerging Markets: EM stocks are officially in a bull market.

Japan: The 10yr JGB is once again testing the BoJ’s resolve, with some trades taking place above the 0.5% cap.

Global Developments: Hedge funds are boosting their bets against the dollar.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are cold and flu medicine preferences:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wage growth surprised to the downside, boosting hopes for slower inflation ahead.

Stocks surged as the payrolls data and ISM report showed signs of easing inflation.

The Eurozone: Euro-area inflation dropped more than expected last month, but the core CPI continued to climb.

China: Chinese A-shares are attractively valued relative to history, while investable/offshore stocks are not particularly cheap.

Emerging Markets: India is forecasting a 7% GDP growth in 2023.

Cryptocurrency: SOL bounced last week after a massive drop in 2022.

Commodities: Copper is rallying amid China’s reopening and a softer US dollar.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the US teacher shortages.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Economists don’t see significant increases in unemployment going forward.

Looking toward the housing market, here is home price appreciation by price tier.

The Eurozone: Here are the CPI trends for Spain, France, and Germany.

Equities: What returns should we expect over the next 5 and 10 years, given the current S&P 500 valuation (PE ~16.6x)?

Rates: The Fed’s quantitative tightening has picked up momentum. But, the MBS portfolio unwind has been slow due to collapsed mortgage refi activity.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptos had a good week, with Litecoin (LTC) outperforming other large tokens.

Food for Thought: To conclude the week, here is who betting markets expect the next Speaker of the House will be:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief