Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook.

The United States: Manufacturing activity shifted deeper into contraction territory this month as demand plummets

Canada: Housing starts remain well above pre-COVID levels.

Emerging Markets: Economists see a painful onset of stagflation in Chile next year.

Equities: Stocks decoupled from bonds last week as recession worries grow.

S&P 500 earnings are nearly 20% above their long-term trend.

Global Developments: Inflation reports have been surprising to the downside.

Food for Thought: Lastly, let’s take a look at who owns the US stock market.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: The ECB hiked rates by 50 bps and struck a hawkish tone.

The euro surged on the ECB announcement but then retreated amid global risk-off sentiment.

The United States: The market is now pricing about 130 bps of rate cuts in the second half of next year and the first half of 2024.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s inflation breached 90% last month.

Economists downgraded India’s FY 2023 GDP, but the nation’s growth is expected to outpace most other countries.

Energy: US gross crude oil exports remain near record levels.

Equities: Stocks tumbled on Thursday in response to the hawkish Fed. The S&P 500 is at the low end of its recent trading range.

Food for Thought: Happy Hanukkah!

Edited by Alexander Bowers

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Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC now sees the terminal rate above 5%, well above what the market has been pricing in.

The AEI Housing Center expects a 10-15% decline in home prices from the June 2022 peak.

Asia – Pacific: Australia’s labor market performance has been remarkably strong.

China: Searches for COVID symptoms are spiking.

The United Kingdom: The CPI report was softer than expected, appearing to have peaked. This chart shows the contributions.

The Eurozone: Industrial production declined in October.

Equities: The recession scenario could bring further pain to equities.

Food for Thought: Here are the biggest sources of electricity production in the US and Canada, by state/province:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The November CPI report came in below expectation as inflation moderates.

February is now looking more like 25 bps rather than 50 bps.

The Eurozone: Germany’s ZEW expectations index climbed further this month as fears of an energy crisis this winter subside.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s stocks came under pressure in recent days.

Equities: The S&P 500 downtrend resistance held after the CPI report.

Next, here’s a look at sector performance during periods of high and falling inflation.

Credit: Short-term US corporate bond yields are on par with the S&P 500’s earnings yield for the first time since the financial crisis.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a breakdown of the tech layoffs.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Credit growth has been robust, but banks appear to be curbing lending amid recession concerns.

The Eurozone: Here are anticipated ECB terminal rates from a recent survey by Deutsche Bank.

Equities: BofA’s fund manager survey shows cash levels peaking.

Risk appetite is starting to recover.

Credit: Here are the drivers of recent rating downgrades.

Cryptocurrency: The crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted between “extreme fear” and “fear” over the past few months.

Emerging Markets: EM reserves declined in recent months.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the change in US household size over time:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: A gallon of unleaded gasoline is now cheaper than it was 12 months ago.

The Eurozone: Speculative accounts continue to bet on further gains in the euro.

Equities: The market expects a volatile week. Here is the S&P 500 volatility term structure.

The CPI release days saw sharp market swings in recent months.

Stocks shunned by mutual funds have been outperforming.

Credit: Investors are underweight in investment grade credit.

Global Developments: Here are the top destinations for foreign direct investment.

Food for Thought: Lastly, let’s take a look at what causes people the most stress during the holiday season.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: To begin, elevated layoffs point to higher jobless claims ahead.

The Eurozone: Here is what the market is pricing in for ECB rate changes.

China: Property stocks are surging.

Equities: For the first time in 26 weeks, there were more earnings upgrades than downgrades.

Energy: WTI temporarily moved back into backwardation on the Keystone news.

Emerging Markets: The currency devaluation is causing Egypt’s inflation to surge again.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with Ethereum outperforming other top tokens.

Food for Thought: To conclude the week, here is the change in cost to deliver cargo into orbit:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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